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I love spicy foods. Maybe it’s my Japanese heritage. I’ve been a Bengals fan for over 25 years, so I’m already a glutton for punishment. But unfortunately for me, my wife and sons avoid the heat. Of course, I’ve tried to convert my wife to a “heat-onist.” We’ve been down south a number of times (NOLA, ‘Bama, ATL, etc.). And I try to throw a bit of “culture” into every dish I make. All to no avail.
But recently, my soon-to-be teenager has shown an interest in going to Flavortown.
Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Football league for the 2026 NFL season
At first, I was shocked. I assumed the preference for the subtle tastes in life would be a constant. Don’t get me wrong, I was happy about the shift. But the adjustment had me reeling.
That’s where we find ourselves with the RB Dead Zone. An idea that Ben Gretch (I watched him throw a 50-yard pass in Canton last month) posited back in 2019. And still, we scour the early rounds for potential letdowns. However, as the league has changed, so should our approach to early-round RBs.
Think about how we evaluate and draft QBs.
We know what to expect from the high-end options. Guys like Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson offer not only passing efficiency that rivals most of their peers, but rushing, too. The potential for high-scoring weeks makes their draft cost worth the similarly high investment. And then we start to play games with all of the QBs that follow.
From projections to coachspeak to training camp clips, our collective knowledge teases us with dreams of ceiling outcomes. Yes, this IS Joe Burrow’s season to be in the MVP conversation (please, let this be true). Of course, Justin Herbert with Mike McDaniel will be a problem for the rest of the league. And while we push players farther up our draft board, the risk of failure increases. And when the bill comes, our fantasy teams are left struggling. Let’s apply this thought process to RBs using an example from last year.
Kaleb Johnson earned Day 2 draft capital from the Steelers. With Najee Harris out of the picture, we (and I’ll use the royal ‘we’ here) all bought what Pittsburgh’s front office was selling. They drafted Johnson to be their RB1. However, even after reports of him struggling in training camp, we dismissed Kenneth Gainwell’s $1.8 million contract. And Jaylen Warren had always been the RB2. No other scenario made sense other than Johnson having the lead role. And, unsurprisingly, we’ve done this with other RBs before.
Here's a look at RB opportunity by round vs. WR targets.
FantasyPros
I took the last 10 seasons of data and normalized the workloads for RBs and WRs by round. I’m not breaking any ground by saying players drafted later don’t see as much usage. But there are two key takeaways from the table.
First, look at how quickly things decline for rushers. Target shares are down by almost 40% by the fourth round. Touches when their teams are in scoring position cut in half by the middle rounds. The situations or scenarios we anticipated occurring broke a different way. Plus, what’s worse is that the better solution was right there in front of us.
Targets for WRs drop but at a softer pace. Again, this is a 10-year sample, so zooming into a single year might shift the effect somewhat, but the overall indication is the same. The receivers offer more stability. Betting on an RB becomes more tenuous. However, the projected responsibilities for these rushers make them hard to avoid as we build our teams.
So, when you hear the term “Dead Zone RB,” it’s not to say the player doesn’t have any talent. How well (or poorly) an RB performs at their position is one facet of the term. It’s the combination of their situation-based role (e.g., goal-line carries, pass-game involvement) and team outlook that we have to consider. And if our case for them to exceed their draft cost doesn’t outweigh a non-injury-related loss of work, then you’ve found yourself in the Dead Zone.
In short, yes. However, it’s not as simple as pointing to a cluster of draft picks and proclaiming them as the place RB value goes to die. Let’s start with what drives the phenomenon.
Here's a look at simple correlation with PPG by touch type.
FantasyPros
My good friend Dwain McFarland popularized the concept of contextualized usage. Essentially, not all touches hold the same value. Of course, volume is king. But some situations are more conducive to fantasy points than others. So, using the same data set, I measured the correlation between specific scenarios and the results. The usual suspects rose to the top. Being involved in a team’s passing game and on potential scoring plays matters. However, as we’ve decomposed RB profiles over the years to understand their components, our draft strategies have adjusted to the increased understanding.
Here's a look at the worst round for RB value by season since 2021.
FantasyPros
I calculated the points above replacement (PAR) for RBs by round over the last five seasons. I used the RB30 as the bar since we require at least two starters and some wind up in the FLEX. Anyway, I looked for where PAR bottomed out as a sign of the location of the Dead Zone.
Seeing the sixth round as where RB value hit its minimum back in ’21 made sense. We were in the throes of “avoid this area of the draft” analysis. But as we got smarter and both teams and backfields evolved, the timing slid to the right. And it’s been dithering around the R7-10 since. Even better, the market has started to reflect our judgment in committees.
Here's a look at RB targets and red zone touches by round.
FantasyPros
Targets and red-zone touches for rushers typically taken in the Dead Zone are up. Now, not every case warrants us taking an RB over a receiver in the same area. But the risk has lessened. Partly due to how much information we have to parse through during the offseason. Coaching tendencies and how we interpret anecdotal data have never been sharper. So, while we can still fall prey to a rusher who can cripple our team’s chances at a championship, there’s still a means to avoid drafting one of them.
As I said, the ambiguity of “when” to be wary about RBs with riskier profiles makes it harder to use timing as a way to mitigate falling into the Dead Zone. But we do have a profile to guard against. Let’s go back to 2024 to find another example.
Of course, the first video I find of Zamir White scoring a touchdown is against my Bengals.
The departure of Josh Jacobs landed White in the RB2 conversation. By the summer of ’24, White had just four starts to his name after joining the league two years prior. But with a 5’11”/227-pound build, projections had him supporting every role. He even earned 19 targets while sharing the totes with Jacobs! The situation was lining up for White even if we were uncertain about his talent. In either case, reality wasn’t kind to the truthers.
White suffered a quad injury in Week 11, which sidelined him for the season. But by then, the damage was already done. It took Alexander Mattison, on a meager $2M deal, a month to take over the backfield. We valued the vacated touches and assumed White could (literally) carry the load. However, that same bet worked if you applied it to the Cardinals’ RB1.
James Connor was returning from yet another injury-marred season. Rumors from around Arizona were that the team got all they needed from the former Steeler. Besides, they just drafted Trey Benson. It was the young buck’s time. But Connor had other plans.
It was like 2023 never happened. Connor not only maintained his past job as RB1, but tacked on even more work for good measure. Benson became an afterthought in the offense. Accordingly, drafters look back at Connor’s resurgence as a reason to take a swing on similar rushers in this area of the draft.
I’m showing you both sides of the coin not to confuse you, but to amplify my earlier point. Drafting RBs in the “Dead Zone” isn’t about talent or situation. It’s about us being wrong. The “wisdom of the crowd” (i.e., the market, ADP) doesn’t account for every scenario. Uncertainty only increases as we get deeper into the draft. But being right once, as the masses downplay how a rusher can fail to meet their draft cost, can make all the difference. So, with that mindset as boundary conditions, let’s apply that thought process to 2026 and find potential “Dead Zone” candidates.
Admittedly, Montgomery and Tuten have prices that fall outside of the range in the draft for the Dead Zone. But they share a comparable risk profile. However, I’m willing to take swings on one of them at cost.
Offseason reports from Houston have already indicated David Montgomery will be the Texans’ RB1 for 2026. Unlike the cases we reviewed earlier, Montgomery was able to force a timeshare when superior talent showed up in Detroit. And not just empty-calorie touches. Montgomery was up to 2.7 targets per game along with taking goal-line carries away from Jahmyr Gibbs. Montgomery joins a backfield where its former lead back, Woody Marks, fell below the league average in every rushing efficiency metric as a rookie. If we already have questions about the skill set of his competition, Montgomery’s risk relative to the upside isn’t as severe with the information we have now. But contrast this situation with Bhayshul Tuten’s.
If I told you I wanted you to draft an RB with zero starts under their belt and who’s highest target share in a single game last year was 9.0%, you’d look back at the Kaleb Johnson example in fear. To go with the lack of experience, Tuten has a backfield mate with a similar skill set. The Jaguars’ ecosystem, and its improvement over the back half of the season, only adds more ambiguity. Sure, Tuten may be first in line to start the year. But the questions we’ll have about the state of the offense as a whole and his split with Chris Rodriguez Jr. may have us looking at Tuten as a Dead Zone RB by the end of the season.
Continue reading...
But recently, my soon-to-be teenager has shown an interest in going to Flavortown.
Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Football league for the 2026 NFL season
At first, I was shocked. I assumed the preference for the subtle tastes in life would be a constant. Don’t get me wrong, I was happy about the shift. But the adjustment had me reeling.
That’s where we find ourselves with the RB Dead Zone. An idea that Ben Gretch (I watched him throw a 50-yard pass in Canton last month) posited back in 2019. And still, we scour the early rounds for potential letdowns. However, as the league has changed, so should our approach to early-round RBs.
What Is The RB Dead Zone?
Think about how we evaluate and draft QBs.
We know what to expect from the high-end options. Guys like Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson offer not only passing efficiency that rivals most of their peers, but rushing, too. The potential for high-scoring weeks makes their draft cost worth the similarly high investment. And then we start to play games with all of the QBs that follow.
From projections to coachspeak to training camp clips, our collective knowledge teases us with dreams of ceiling outcomes. Yes, this IS Joe Burrow’s season to be in the MVP conversation (please, let this be true). Of course, Justin Herbert with Mike McDaniel will be a problem for the rest of the league. And while we push players farther up our draft board, the risk of failure increases. And when the bill comes, our fantasy teams are left struggling. Let’s apply this thought process to RBs using an example from last year.
Kaleb Johnson earned Day 2 draft capital from the Steelers. With Najee Harris out of the picture, we (and I’ll use the royal ‘we’ here) all bought what Pittsburgh’s front office was selling. They drafted Johnson to be their RB1. However, even after reports of him struggling in training camp, we dismissed Kenneth Gainwell’s $1.8 million contract. And Jaylen Warren had always been the RB2. No other scenario made sense other than Johnson having the lead role. And, unsurprisingly, we’ve done this with other RBs before.
You must be registered for see images attach
Here's a look at RB opportunity by round vs. WR targets.
FantasyPros
I took the last 10 seasons of data and normalized the workloads for RBs and WRs by round. I’m not breaking any ground by saying players drafted later don’t see as much usage. But there are two key takeaways from the table.
First, look at how quickly things decline for rushers. Target shares are down by almost 40% by the fourth round. Touches when their teams are in scoring position cut in half by the middle rounds. The situations or scenarios we anticipated occurring broke a different way. Plus, what’s worse is that the better solution was right there in front of us.
Targets for WRs drop but at a softer pace. Again, this is a 10-year sample, so zooming into a single year might shift the effect somewhat, but the overall indication is the same. The receivers offer more stability. Betting on an RB becomes more tenuous. However, the projected responsibilities for these rushers make them hard to avoid as we build our teams.
So, when you hear the term “Dead Zone RB,” it’s not to say the player doesn’t have any talent. How well (or poorly) an RB performs at their position is one facet of the term. It’s the combination of their situation-based role (e.g., goal-line carries, pass-game involvement) and team outlook that we have to consider. And if our case for them to exceed their draft cost doesn’t outweigh a non-injury-related loss of work, then you’ve found yourself in the Dead Zone.
Does It Still Exist?
In short, yes. However, it’s not as simple as pointing to a cluster of draft picks and proclaiming them as the place RB value goes to die. Let’s start with what drives the phenomenon.
You must be registered for see images attach
Here's a look at simple correlation with PPG by touch type.
FantasyPros
My good friend Dwain McFarland popularized the concept of contextualized usage. Essentially, not all touches hold the same value. Of course, volume is king. But some situations are more conducive to fantasy points than others. So, using the same data set, I measured the correlation between specific scenarios and the results. The usual suspects rose to the top. Being involved in a team’s passing game and on potential scoring plays matters. However, as we’ve decomposed RB profiles over the years to understand their components, our draft strategies have adjusted to the increased understanding.
You must be registered for see images attach
Here's a look at the worst round for RB value by season since 2021.
FantasyPros
I calculated the points above replacement (PAR) for RBs by round over the last five seasons. I used the RB30 as the bar since we require at least two starters and some wind up in the FLEX. Anyway, I looked for where PAR bottomed out as a sign of the location of the Dead Zone.
Seeing the sixth round as where RB value hit its minimum back in ’21 made sense. We were in the throes of “avoid this area of the draft” analysis. But as we got smarter and both teams and backfields evolved, the timing slid to the right. And it’s been dithering around the R7-10 since. Even better, the market has started to reflect our judgment in committees.
You must be registered for see images attach
Here's a look at RB targets and red zone touches by round.
FantasyPros
Targets and red-zone touches for rushers typically taken in the Dead Zone are up. Now, not every case warrants us taking an RB over a receiver in the same area. But the risk has lessened. Partly due to how much information we have to parse through during the offseason. Coaching tendencies and how we interpret anecdotal data have never been sharper. So, while we can still fall prey to a rusher who can cripple our team’s chances at a championship, there’s still a means to avoid drafting one of them.
Can We Work Around It?
As I said, the ambiguity of “when” to be wary about RBs with riskier profiles makes it harder to use timing as a way to mitigate falling into the Dead Zone. But we do have a profile to guard against. Let’s go back to 2024 to find another example.
Of course, the first video I find of Zamir White scoring a touchdown is against my Bengals.
The departure of Josh Jacobs landed White in the RB2 conversation. By the summer of ’24, White had just four starts to his name after joining the league two years prior. But with a 5’11”/227-pound build, projections had him supporting every role. He even earned 19 targets while sharing the totes with Jacobs! The situation was lining up for White even if we were uncertain about his talent. In either case, reality wasn’t kind to the truthers.
Rushing Share (Weeks 1-9): 47.2% (Mattison), 30.8% (White)
Route Rate: 47.2%, 30.8%
RZ Snap Rate: 54.2%, 20.8%
White suffered a quad injury in Week 11, which sidelined him for the season. But by then, the damage was already done. It took Alexander Mattison, on a meager $2M deal, a month to take over the backfield. We valued the vacated touches and assumed White could (literally) carry the load. However, that same bet worked if you applied it to the Cardinals’ RB1.
James Connor was returning from yet another injury-marred season. Rumors from around Arizona were that the team got all they needed from the former Steeler. Besides, they just drafted Trey Benson. It was the young buck’s time. But Connor had other plans.
Early-Down Touch Share: 52.8% (2023), 63.6% (2024)
Targets per Game: 2.5, 3.4
RZ Touch Share: 33.7%, 64.7%
It was like 2023 never happened. Connor not only maintained his past job as RB1, but tacked on even more work for good measure. Benson became an afterthought in the offense. Accordingly, drafters look back at Connor’s resurgence as a reason to take a swing on similar rushers in this area of the draft.
I’m showing you both sides of the coin not to confuse you, but to amplify my earlier point. Drafting RBs in the “Dead Zone” isn’t about talent or situation. It’s about us being wrong. The “wisdom of the crowd” (i.e., the market, ADP) doesn’t account for every scenario. Uncertainty only increases as we get deeper into the draft. But being right once, as the masses downplay how a rusher can fail to meet their draft cost, can make all the difference. So, with that mindset as boundary conditions, let’s apply that thought process to 2026 and find potential “Dead Zone” candidates.
David Montgomery, HOU: 53.7 (ADP)
Bhayshul Tuten, JAX: 63.2
Jaylen Warren, PIT: 76.3
Rhamondre Stevenson, NE: 82.7
Rico Dowdle, PIT: 85.7
Admittedly, Montgomery and Tuten have prices that fall outside of the range in the draft for the Dead Zone. But they share a comparable risk profile. However, I’m willing to take swings on one of them at cost.
Offseason reports from Houston have already indicated David Montgomery will be the Texans’ RB1 for 2026. Unlike the cases we reviewed earlier, Montgomery was able to force a timeshare when superior talent showed up in Detroit. And not just empty-calorie touches. Montgomery was up to 2.7 targets per game along with taking goal-line carries away from Jahmyr Gibbs. Montgomery joins a backfield where its former lead back, Woody Marks, fell below the league average in every rushing efficiency metric as a rookie. If we already have questions about the skill set of his competition, Montgomery’s risk relative to the upside isn’t as severe with the information we have now. But contrast this situation with Bhayshul Tuten’s.
If I told you I wanted you to draft an RB with zero starts under their belt and who’s highest target share in a single game last year was 9.0%, you’d look back at the Kaleb Johnson example in fear. To go with the lack of experience, Tuten has a backfield mate with a similar skill set. The Jaguars’ ecosystem, and its improvement over the back half of the season, only adds more ambiguity. Sure, Tuten may be first in line to start the year. But the questions we’ll have about the state of the offense as a whole and his split with Chris Rodriguez Jr. may have us looking at Tuten as a Dead Zone RB by the end of the season.
Continue reading...
