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The New York Giants selected Penn State edge rusher Abdul Carter third overall in the 2025 NFL draft and he's expected to have a Day 1 impact despite the presence of veteran pass rushers Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux.
But exactly how much of an impact will Carter have?
It's tough to predict the future but that's exactly what ESPN's Seth Walder has attempted to do with his sack model, which projects the total number of sacks for an incoming player over their first three seasons.
Carter topped the 2025 list with a projected 15.5 sacks.
"The model sees Abdul Carter as the clear-cut No. 1 pass rusher in this class, which is no surprise, but it actually likes Carter quite a bit less than it liked Dallas Turner a year ago," Walder wrote.
Turner, selected 17th overall by the Minnesota Vikings a year ago, was given a 19-sack projection over his first three seasons from the same ESPN model. As a rookie, he recorded just 3.0.
That sounds like an easy number for Carter to eclipse during his rookie campaign, but he'll also face more stiff competition for snaps than Turner did with the Vikings. The 15.5-sack number also seems low but as Walder added, the model "projections always feel low."
"The projections always feel low. But it’s really just a reminder of how often prospects ultimately fail to produce major numbers," he wrote.
Meanwhile, Giants rookie defensive tackle Darius Alexander is projected to record 5.06 sacks over his first three seasons, which is good for eighth among rookie interior defensive linemen.
This article originally appeared on Giants Wire: ESPN's sack model predicts early success for Giants' Abdul Carter
Continue reading...
But exactly how much of an impact will Carter have?
It's tough to predict the future but that's exactly what ESPN's Seth Walder has attempted to do with his sack model, which projects the total number of sacks for an incoming player over their first three seasons.
Carter topped the 2025 list with a projected 15.5 sacks.
"The model sees Abdul Carter as the clear-cut No. 1 pass rusher in this class, which is no surprise, but it actually likes Carter quite a bit less than it liked Dallas Turner a year ago," Walder wrote.
Turner, selected 17th overall by the Minnesota Vikings a year ago, was given a 19-sack projection over his first three seasons from the same ESPN model. As a rookie, he recorded just 3.0.
That sounds like an easy number for Carter to eclipse during his rookie campaign, but he'll also face more stiff competition for snaps than Turner did with the Vikings. The 15.5-sack number also seems low but as Walder added, the model "projections always feel low."
"The projections always feel low. But it’s really just a reminder of how often prospects ultimately fail to produce major numbers," he wrote.
Meanwhile, Giants rookie defensive tackle Darius Alexander is projected to record 5.06 sacks over his first three seasons, which is good for eighth among rookie interior defensive linemen.
This article originally appeared on Giants Wire: ESPN's sack model predicts early success for Giants' Abdul Carter
Continue reading...
