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SOUTH BEND, INDIANA - SEPTEMBER 20: CJ Carr #13 of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish runs the ball as Ian Jeffries #40 and Josh Burney #53 of the Purdue Boilermakers pursue during the first half of the NCAA game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Purdue Boilermakers at Notre Dame Stadium on September 20, 2025 in South Bend, Indiana. (Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Analyzing programs’ overall point differentials from the prior season is one way I’ve been sizing up Notre Dame’s opponents heading into the 2026-27 college football season. The opponents ended up being bucketed into three groups:
- Positive Differential: Those programs who had a positive overall differential at the end of the 2025-26 CFB season.
- Negative Differential (Moderate): Those programs who had a moderately negative overall differential, ranging between -63 and -124, at the end of the 2025-26 CFB season.
- Negative Differential (Significant): Those programs who have a significantly negative overall differential, ranging between -157 and -180, at the end of the 2025-26 CFB season.
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Positive Differential
Miami (FL)
The Hurricanes finished the 2025-26 season with a +258 overall differential. They put up 459 points, compared with 237 points by opponents. Their largest statistical win was a +42 rout of fellow Florida institution, Bethune-Cookman, and their most significant losses were two -6 differential games dropped to the ACC’s SMU and the eventual national champion, Indiana.
BYU
BYU finished the 2025-26 season with a +172 overall differential. They tallied up a total of 440 points throughout the season, compared with 268 points by their opponents. The Cougars beat Portland State with a +69 differential but dropped two games to Texas Tech. The regular season loss to Tech was by a -22 differential and the postseason loss had a -27 differential.
SMU
The SMU Mustangs finished the 2025-26 season with a +152 overall differential. They recorded 419 points throughout the season, compared with 267 points by their opponents. SMU beat ACC opponents Boston College and Louisville with +32 differentials. The team’s most significant loss was -11 differential game against fellow Texas program, TCU.
Navy
Navy finished the 2025-26 season with a +84 overall differential. They tallied up a total of 409 points, compared with 325 points by their opponents. Navy’s biggest statistical win was +45 against the Virginia Military Institute and their most significant defeat was a -39 differential game against Notre Dame.
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Negative Differential (Moderate)
North Carolina
The North Carolina Tar Heels finished the 2025-26 season with a -63 overall differential. The team put up 231 points, compared with 294 points by their opponents. They beat Richmond with a +35 differential and dropped a -34 differential game to TCU.
Michigan State
Michigan State football finished the 2025-26 season with a -64 overall differential. They recorded 295 points throughout the season, compared with 359 points by their opponents. Michigan State pulled off +17 differential wins against Western Michigan and Youngstown State and their most significant statistical losses were -25 differential games that they dropped to Big Ten opponents UCLA and Indiana.
Boston College
Boston College finished the 2025-26 season with a -88 overall differential. They tallied up 305 points, compared with 393 points by their opponents. Their biggest statistical victory was a +56 win over Fordham and their most significant loss was a -41 differential game against conference opponent Pitt.
Wisconsin
Wisconsin finished the 2025-26 season with a -105 overall differential. The team put up 154 points, compared with 259 points by their opponents. Their largest win margin was +32 against Middle Tennessee State and their largest loss margin was -37 against conference opponent Iowa.
Stanford
The Stanford Cardinal finished the 2025-26 season with a -124 overall differential. They recorded a grand total of 226 points, compared with 350 by their competition. Their most significant statistical win was +21 over fellow Pac-12 expat and current ACC colleague, California. Stanford’s most significant loss was a -35 differential game dropped to the national championship runner-up Miami (FL).
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Negative Differential (Significant)
Purdue
Purdue finished the 2025-26 season with a -157 overall differential. They tallied up 225 points throughout the season, compared with 382 points by their opponents. Their most decisive win was +31 against Ball State and their most decisive loss was -36 to conference opponent Washington.
Syracuse
The Syracuse Orange finished the 2025-26 season with a -177 overall differential. The team put up 242 points throughout the season, compared with 419 points by their opponents. Syracuse’s biggest statistical victory was +42 over Colgate and the biggest loss was a -63 differential game dropped to Notre Dame.
Rice
Rice finished the 2025-26 season with a -180 overall differential. The Owls recorded a grand total of 248 points, compared with 428 points by their opponents. Their most decisive win was +21 against fellow Texas institution Prairie View A&M and the team’s most decisive loss was -49 to fellow American conference member South Florida.
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