Diamondbacks Reacts Survey: A Roster Crunch approaches

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Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Diamondbacks fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.

A.J. Puk and Carlos Santana are rehabbing in Reno. Lourdes Gurriel Jr recently started his rehab assignment at Salt River Fields. The team signed Max Kepler to a deal. The clock is ticking on all these players, and in the next couple of weeks, decisions will need to be made, regarding what to do with them. There’s really three separate levels at which these choices have to be executed. Let’s look at each in turn, and see where the Diamondbacks stand.

The 40-man roster​

Gurriel is, at least, already on here. Having been placed only on the 10-day injured list, that saves his spot on the 40-man roster. But Puk and Santana are both on the 60-day IL. While a positive at the time, in that they no longer counted towards the 40-man roster, in order for them to be re-activated, a spot will have to be cleared on that. Kepler, similarly, is not on Arizona’s 40-man roster, because he is still serving out the end of his 80-game suspension for a failed drug test. But when that happens, the team will also need to find a spot, if they want to keep him. All told, that’s three 40-man spots Arizona probably needs to find.

Let’s exclude the current 26-man roster from consideration here, calling their spots on the 40-man roster secure for the time being. That leaves fourteen men. Nine of them are pitchers, three are position players, and there are two on the 10-day IL: Gurriel and catcher James McCann. The latter is out with a strained quad, which led to an IL placement on May 19. Might he be moved to the 60-day IL? Quads are tricky things, especially for catchers. However, he reportedly started facing a pitching machine and doing catching drills last week. Unless there’s a set-back, 60-daying McCann – sidelining him for at least another five weeks – seems excessive. Especially with Aramis Garcia as the backup catcher.

The three position players are Jose Fernandez, Tim Tawa and Tyler Locklear. The first two were on the active roster until just a few days ago. If they were going to be DFAd, it would probably have have happened when they were taken off it (on June 5th and 1st respectively). I think it’s interesting that Locklear wasn’t activated when he came off the IL, especially given Arizona’s struggles at 1B, where their production is among the worst in the majors. But he has been merely okay in Reno: his .786 OPS in 25 games through Monday is basically team average. Still, the team traded for him for a reason, and it seems unlikely they’d cut bait as yet.

My instinct is, there’s going to be a bit of a National German Chocolate Cake Day Massacre (you know I’ll be celebrating that one tomorrow) among the minor-league pitching staff. Below, I’ve ranked the nine pitchers from most secure to most at risk, in terms of whose 40-man roster spot is in jeopardy. Generally, starters preferred over relievers, age and current level of performance also taken into account. All stats through Monday.

1. Brandon Pfaadt. Despite his fall from grace, definitely not going anywhere.
2. Mitch Bratt. Performing very well – a 2.68 ERA in 10 Reno starts is stellar. Currently on the MiLB IL with back inflammation
3. Yilber Díaz. Best K-rate of anyone currently in Reno – 38 Ks in 27.2 IP – but as ever, the walks (19) are an issue. Future closer potential.
4. Dylan Ray. A starter, and a 4.82 ERA is reasonable. He’s also young for AAA, but is on the 7-day IL for the second time this season.
5. Kohl Drake. A 7.80 ERA isn’t great. But he’s a starting pitcher and a left-hander, two big reasons to keep him around.
6. Andrew Hoffmann. Prone to the meltdown. Allowed 19 ER in twenty outings: 12 ER came in just two of those. Walks too many, but improved recently.
7. Philip Abner. Well, he’s left-handed and quite young. But that horrendous outing vs. Washington won’t have done his chances any good.
8. Kade Strowd. A rough game against the Nationals, and almost as many walks as strikeouts in Reno. Also turns 29 in September. so limited upside.
9. Juan Burgos. Came from Seattle with Locklear in the Suarez trade, but seems to have struggled since.

The 26-man roster​

The next problem is going to be finding slots for everyone on the active roster. Let’s start with Puk, since he’s the only pitcher among the quartet, and there is a fairly easy solution there. As mentioned previously, the top of the D-backs bullpen has been excellent so far. The latest arrival was Drey Jameson, who took Pfaadt’s spot after the starter was optioned to Reno. His appearance in the Washington series didn’t exactly inspire confidence, allowing two runs on two hits and two walks in an inning of work. Having only been recalled on the 6th, he seems the clear candidate to give up his spot for Puk.

On the position player side, LuJames Groover is the most obvious candidate for similar reasons, and will probably be going back down to Reno when Santana is available. It’s an infielder for an infielder, and with Santana being a switch-hitter, handedness isn’t particularly important. When Lourdes is ready, I’d not be surprised to see Adrian Del Castillo optioned out to Reno. I’ve a feeling the team may want to keep Gurriel off the field, given this is already his second IL stint of the year, and use him more as a DH. Del Castillo is a lefty though while Gurriel is a righty. If the team wants to remain balanced, and Gurriel is considered able to play the outfield, optioning Tommy Troy instead makes sense.

If that does happen, then making room for the final man would become relatively easy, with left-handed Del Castillo being replaced by left-handed Kepler, largely in the DH spot. So while the ordering may be uncertain, it looks as though Groover, Troy and Del Castillo will be the ones to give up their spots on the position player side, as and when necessary to make room for the returning players and new arrival.

The roles​

I touched briefly on this above, mentioning whether Gurriel is going to keep playing the field, or become our primary DH. Given the problems with his legs, I would be inclined to keep him at DH where possible. While Gurriel has struggled at the plate this year (OPS+ just 66), he might have the best overall track record among the right-handed candidates there. The problem would be, DH starts vs. LHSP are going to be the minority. What do you do the rest of the time with a man who is earning $13 million this year, whether or not he plays?

That isn’t a particular problem with Kepler, who is likely earning little more than league minimum. If he doesn’t hit down in Reno – and there’s a non-zero chance of that – then the team can simply let him go, with no damage except to their reputation. Presuming that isn’t the case, and he joins the active roster, then he’ll likely get starts at DH against RHSP. Even with the low bar at 1B (the D-backs are dead last in OPS there, and it’s not close), it’s hard to see much time for Santana, except as a late-inning defensive replacement. I would not be surprised if he comes back, fails to hit and the D-backs release him before the trade deadline.

The most interesting situation will be Puk, and whether he’ll take over as closer from Paul Sewald. The latter has been almost perfect in save situation (15 of 16), but a FIP of 4.00 and a minuscule .137 BABIP suggests there may be a Paulpocalypse approaching. The latter is the third-lowest of the 360 pitchers with 20 IP this year. That might be good reason to transfer the closer’s mantle to A.J. as soon as possible, rather than continuing to roll the dice. But that’s what the poll below is for. How do you think the team should handle the closer’s situation when A.J. Puk returns? Make your selection below, and explain your decision in the comments.

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