Current condition of the stock market..

Discussion in 'Finance, Investments, and Careers' started by dscher, May 7, 2019.

  1. MaoTosiFanClub

    MaoTosiFanClub Mike McCoy's Playbook

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    Also the issue in expecting a large drop in housing prices is the lack of inventory especially in large cities with jobs.
     
  2. crisper57

    crisper57 Open the Roof!

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    This.

    The biggest lesson I learned is to trust your instincts and research. I've been burned by being reactive to short-term news. I've never been burned by a long-term play.
     
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  3. AZCB34

    AZCB34 Registered User

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    Time horizon is the key. Additionally the vast majority of investors should avoid market timing period. They will do more damage than good.

    1. Build a solid investment plan that matches your goal and time horizon
    2. Don't allow the daily market machinations concern you because you know your plan is good.
    3. Use dips as buying opportunities.
    4. Reallocate at least annually to about getting too heavy one direction or the other.
     
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  4. dscher

    dscher Registered

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    Good write up. In general, I agree.. diversification across all asset classes is an investors best friend for the long haul. Imo
     
  5. Ouchie-Z-Clown

    Ouchie-Z-Clown I'm better than Mulli!

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    But with some proper allocating. Not the N/1 philosophy.
     
  6. AZCB34

    AZCB34 Registered User

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    My use of investment plan infers pepper allocation and diversification but I shouldn't assume everyone would automatically take that away from what I said.
     
  7. Ouchie-Z-Clown

    Ouchie-Z-Clown I'm better than Mulli!

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    Given your experience in the industry I assumed you meant that, but as you state I don’t want anyone to think that means just divide up your money equally among asset classes.
     
  8. Russ Smith

    Russ Smith The Original Whizzinator Contributor

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    There's a huge bubble forming in commercial real estate. There's all sorts of building going on in the Bay Area and there's a bunch of issues with it driving up the rates on existing real estate. The building I work in now was vacant for over 7 years before my company moved in(I wasn't here then). That's apparently happening more and more as companies are getting priced out of newer buildings so they take risks on older ones.

    The problem is there's a huge amount of real estate controlled by a few very large companies. If and when the economy takes a fall and those companies see hard times, you're going to see a massive dump taken in commercial real estate. Apple, Google, Facebook etc they're going to be desperately trying to sublease or sell off buildings which will cause a drop in prices.

    I have a friend who's a commercial broker he said in the industry they consider it a when not if scenario.
     
  9. Russ Smith

    Russ Smith The Original Whizzinator Contributor

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    Yep I mentioned months ago I was really tempted to start shorting the market with ETF's but I have a healthy fear of the downside to that so I didn't. I would have made some money at first but unless you are a psychic you don't know when to get out and I would have been burned. I'm convinced Trump is tipping friends who are doing exactly that, shorting the market with ETF's.

    Most of my cash right now is in CD's or money market and most of my retirement savings is in the market. THat's largely a family thing my GF has much less risk tolerance than I do so we agreed take less risk with the cash. every now and then I point out to her the cash in a brokerage account went is up 28% in 2.5 years and the other stuff is up about 4 .5 % over the same time horizon, but I know I'm not going to change her mind.

    My IRAs are all managed by Fidelity right now, they are largely in Fidelity funds and fidelity ETF's so they're not really trying to time the market. I would note my broker for Wells Fargo that has our brokerage account pointed out the first 6 months FIdelity was managing my IRA's, they underperformed the S&P. It is awfully tempting to just put it all in index funds.
     

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