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6th man rotation ideas
This might be strange to see another Casey Mize article but looking on when he returns to Sunday more than likely, it makes sense to bring up the elephant in the room.
Casey Mize’s return gives the Tigers another rotation option at a useful time, but the more interesting part is not simply that he is coming back. It is how he has pitched when healthy this season, and how his current pitch mix gives Detroit something more stable than it had from him a year ago.
There is also a practical layer to this. Mize is getting closer to free agency, so his next few months carry value for both sides. If he pitches well, the Tigers get needed innings from a starter with a better overall arsenal. If he pitches well, Mize also strengthens his own market. That is not a conflict. It is a straightforward alignment between a player trying to improve his value and a team trying to stay competitive.
The phrase “playing with house money” fits here, but not in the sense that there are no stakes. There are stakes for Mize, and there are stakes for the Tigers. It is more that Detroit benefits from whatever positive version of Mize it gets. If he settles back into the rotation and continues to look like the pitcher he was earlier this season, the Tigers gain another starter who can miss bats, limit damage and reduce the workload on the bullpen.
The key is that Mize’s improvement has not come from one simple change. The splitter is still the pitch most associated with him, and it remains central to the way he gets hitters out. But the 2026 version of Mize looks different because the overall pitch mix is more balanced.
According to Baseball Savant, Mize has used his four-seamer 33.3 percent of the time this season, his splitter 26.7 percent, his slider 25.1 percent, his sinker 10.2 percent and his slurve 4.7 percent. Last season, he threw the four-seamer 33.6 percent, splitter 24.2 percent, slider 16.3 percent, sinker 12.6 percent and slurve 13.3 percent.
The fastball and splitter are still the foundation, but the slider has become a much larger part of the plan. That is the biggest pitch-mix change. Mize has moved away from using the slurve as often and has leaned more into the slider as a primary secondary pitch. That gives him a cleaner three-pitch structure with the four-seamer, splitter and slider doing most of the work.
The splitter numbers are still worth highlighting. In 2025, hitters batted .297 and slugged .494 against Mize’s splitter. This season, they are batting .226 with a .340 slugging percentage against it. The expected numbers are even better, with a .179 expected batting average, .236 expected slugging percentage and .207 expected wOBA.
The whiff rate has not changed much. It was 33.2 percent last season and is 32.4 percent this year. The bigger difference is the quality of contact. Last year, hitters averaged 89.6 mph in exit velocity against the splitter. This year, that number is down to 81.3 mph. The average launch angle has also changed, from 6 degrees last season to minus-4 this season.
That is a more useful way to explain the splitter’s improvement. It is not simply missing more bats. It is producing weaker contact when hitters do put it in play. For Mize, that matters because his best version does not have to be built only around strikeouts. He can be valuable by getting chases, limiting hard contact and keeping innings manageable.
The slider may be the pitch that helps the splitter play better. Mize threw the slider 16.3 percent of the time in 2025. This season, he is throwing it 25.1 percent of the time. The results support the increase. Hitters are batting .114 and slugging .229 against the pitch, with a 34.7 percent whiff rate and a 36.4 percent putaway rate.
That gives Mize another way to finish at-bats. It also makes it harder for hitters to sit on the splitter in two-strike counts. If the slider continues to work at this level, Mize does not have to rely as heavily on one chase pitch to get out of trouble.
Even the four-seamer has played better despite a dip in velocity. Mize averaged 94.6 mph with the pitch last season. This season, he is at 93.3 mph. On its own, that would usually raise some questions. But hitters are batting .180 and slugging .320 against the four-seamer this year, compared with .254 and .425 last season. The expected wOBA on the pitch has also improved, from .327 to .286.
That suggests the fastball is benefiting from the rest of the arsenal. The splitter is doing a better job limiting damage, the slider has become a better swing-and-miss option, and the fastball does not have to carry the same burden on velocity alone.
The overall numbers reflect that improvement. Mize has a 2.27 ERA, 2.64 xERA, 0.97 WHIP, 26.5 percent strikeout rate and 33.3 percent hard-hit rate this season. In 2025, he had a 3.87 ERA, 3.66 xERA, 1.27 WHIP, 22.2 percent strikeout rate and 42.5 percent hard-hit rate.
There is a sample-size caveat. His 2026 numbers cover 47.2 innings and 697 pitches, while his 2025 numbers came over 149 innings and 2,353 pitches. The Tigers still need to see how this version of Mize holds up over a longer stretch, especially after time missed with injury.
Still, the early-season profile is relevant. This is not just a pitcher returning with the same questions as before. Mize has shown a better version of his arsenal, and the differences are visible in both pitch usage and quality-of-contact numbers.
For the Tigers, that gives them a more useful rotation piece. He does not have to pitch like Tarik Skubal or carry the staff. He just has to provide competitive starts, keep the ball off the barrel and help the bullpen avoid being overused. With several rotation decisions coming, a healthy Mize gives Detroit more flexibility with how it handles Troy Melton, Keider Montero, Jack Flaherty, Justin Verlander and the rest of the staff.
For Mize, the situation is just as clear. If he stays healthy and keeps pitching well, his value improves. It's pretty simple. For the Tigers, the same performance helps them now.
That is the practical value of his return. Mize can help Detroit stabilize the rotation while also improving his own free-agent case. The splitter is still the main pitch to watch, but the increased slider usage may be the adjustment that makes the rest of the arsenal work better.
If that continues, the Tigers do not need to overcomplicate the situation. They can take the innings, take the improved pitch mix and let Mize’s contract year work in their favor.
Follow me on "X" @rogcastbaseball
Continue reading...
This might be strange to see another Casey Mize article but looking on when he returns to Sunday more than likely, it makes sense to bring up the elephant in the room.
Casey Mize’s return gives the Tigers another rotation option at a useful time, but the more interesting part is not simply that he is coming back. It is how he has pitched when healthy this season, and how his current pitch mix gives Detroit something more stable than it had from him a year ago.
There is also a practical layer to this. Mize is getting closer to free agency, so his next few months carry value for both sides. If he pitches well, the Tigers get needed innings from a starter with a better overall arsenal. If he pitches well, Mize also strengthens his own market. That is not a conflict. It is a straightforward alignment between a player trying to improve his value and a team trying to stay competitive.
The phrase “playing with house money” fits here, but not in the sense that there are no stakes. There are stakes for Mize, and there are stakes for the Tigers. It is more that Detroit benefits from whatever positive version of Mize it gets. If he settles back into the rotation and continues to look like the pitcher he was earlier this season, the Tigers gain another starter who can miss bats, limit damage and reduce the workload on the bullpen.
The key is that Mize’s improvement has not come from one simple change. The splitter is still the pitch most associated with him, and it remains central to the way he gets hitters out. But the 2026 version of Mize looks different because the overall pitch mix is more balanced.
According to Baseball Savant, Mize has used his four-seamer 33.3 percent of the time this season, his splitter 26.7 percent, his slider 25.1 percent, his sinker 10.2 percent and his slurve 4.7 percent. Last season, he threw the four-seamer 33.6 percent, splitter 24.2 percent, slider 16.3 percent, sinker 12.6 percent and slurve 13.3 percent.
The fastball and splitter are still the foundation, but the slider has become a much larger part of the plan. That is the biggest pitch-mix change. Mize has moved away from using the slurve as often and has leaned more into the slider as a primary secondary pitch. That gives him a cleaner three-pitch structure with the four-seamer, splitter and slider doing most of the work.
The splitter numbers are still worth highlighting. In 2025, hitters batted .297 and slugged .494 against Mize’s splitter. This season, they are batting .226 with a .340 slugging percentage against it. The expected numbers are even better, with a .179 expected batting average, .236 expected slugging percentage and .207 expected wOBA.
The whiff rate has not changed much. It was 33.2 percent last season and is 32.4 percent this year. The bigger difference is the quality of contact. Last year, hitters averaged 89.6 mph in exit velocity against the splitter. This year, that number is down to 81.3 mph. The average launch angle has also changed, from 6 degrees last season to minus-4 this season.
That is a more useful way to explain the splitter’s improvement. It is not simply missing more bats. It is producing weaker contact when hitters do put it in play. For Mize, that matters because his best version does not have to be built only around strikeouts. He can be valuable by getting chases, limiting hard contact and keeping innings manageable.
The slider may be the pitch that helps the splitter play better. Mize threw the slider 16.3 percent of the time in 2025. This season, he is throwing it 25.1 percent of the time. The results support the increase. Hitters are batting .114 and slugging .229 against the pitch, with a 34.7 percent whiff rate and a 36.4 percent putaway rate.
That gives Mize another way to finish at-bats. It also makes it harder for hitters to sit on the splitter in two-strike counts. If the slider continues to work at this level, Mize does not have to rely as heavily on one chase pitch to get out of trouble.
Even the four-seamer has played better despite a dip in velocity. Mize averaged 94.6 mph with the pitch last season. This season, he is at 93.3 mph. On its own, that would usually raise some questions. But hitters are batting .180 and slugging .320 against the four-seamer this year, compared with .254 and .425 last season. The expected wOBA on the pitch has also improved, from .327 to .286.
That suggests the fastball is benefiting from the rest of the arsenal. The splitter is doing a better job limiting damage, the slider has become a better swing-and-miss option, and the fastball does not have to carry the same burden on velocity alone.
The overall numbers reflect that improvement. Mize has a 2.27 ERA, 2.64 xERA, 0.97 WHIP, 26.5 percent strikeout rate and 33.3 percent hard-hit rate this season. In 2025, he had a 3.87 ERA, 3.66 xERA, 1.27 WHIP, 22.2 percent strikeout rate and 42.5 percent hard-hit rate.
There is a sample-size caveat. His 2026 numbers cover 47.2 innings and 697 pitches, while his 2025 numbers came over 149 innings and 2,353 pitches. The Tigers still need to see how this version of Mize holds up over a longer stretch, especially after time missed with injury.
Still, the early-season profile is relevant. This is not just a pitcher returning with the same questions as before. Mize has shown a better version of his arsenal, and the differences are visible in both pitch usage and quality-of-contact numbers.
For the Tigers, that gives them a more useful rotation piece. He does not have to pitch like Tarik Skubal or carry the staff. He just has to provide competitive starts, keep the ball off the barrel and help the bullpen avoid being overused. With several rotation decisions coming, a healthy Mize gives Detroit more flexibility with how it handles Troy Melton, Keider Montero, Jack Flaherty, Justin Verlander and the rest of the staff.
For Mize, the situation is just as clear. If he stays healthy and keeps pitching well, his value improves. It's pretty simple. For the Tigers, the same performance helps them now.
That is the practical value of his return. Mize can help Detroit stabilize the rotation while also improving his own free-agent case. The splitter is still the main pitch to watch, but the increased slider usage may be the adjustment that makes the rest of the arsenal work better.
If that continues, the Tigers do not need to overcomplicate the situation. They can take the innings, take the improved pitch mix and let Mize’s contract year work in their favor.
Follow me on "X" @rogcastbaseball
Continue reading...
