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Film Profile | Analytical Profile
Prospect Information
College: Ohio State
Height/Weight: 6'2"/192
Hands: 10 1/4"
Age: 21 (at the time of the 2026 season opener)
Important NFL Combine/Pro Day Numbers
40-Yard Dash: 4.53
Vertical Jump: N/A
Broad Jump: N/A
20-Yard Shuttle: N/A
3-Cone: N/A
Model Overview
My Wide Receiver Rookie Model evaluates wide receiver prospects through the traits that historically translate best to fantasy production. The model weighs target earning, market-share production, route efficiency, role deployment, ball skills, athletic translation, age, breakout timing, teammate competition, team context and historical outcome trends.
Tate grades out as the top wide receiver in the current model because he combines strong perimeter production with high-end efficiency, quality touchdown output, a young age profile and a clear outside role. He was not just productive. He was productive in a way that translates well to NFL boundary usage.
The model views Tate as a polished perimeter receiver whose fantasy appeal comes from target quality, catch-point skill, strong downfield efficiency and a role that can create high-value opportunities on the outside.
Model Derived Athletic Scores
BMI: 24.6
Speed Score: 91.2
Burst Score: 46.6
Agility Score: 0.17
Composite Athleticism Score: -0.06
Historical Athleticism Percentile: 47th
Understanding the Athleticism Score
The Composite Athleticism Score blends size-adjusted speed, burst, agility and model-derived translation when full testing is unavailable. The percentile compares Tate to historical wide receiver prospects in the database.
Tate projects as an average athlete in this model. He is not a rare tester, but he has enough movement ability for an NFL boundary role, and his fantasy case is driven more by receiving skill, body control and efficiency than by raw athletic outlier traits.
Receiving Efficiency Metrics
Yards per Route Run: 3.03
Yards per Target: 13.3
Touchdowns per Target: 13.6%
First Downs per Route: 0.121
Targets per Route: 0.228
Tate's 2025 efficiency profile is outstanding. He generated strong value every time the ball came his way, pairing high-end yards per target with strong route efficiency and a standout touchdown rate. Those are the kinds of signals the model wants from an outside receiver.
Usage and Alignment
Average Depth of Target: 14.6
Catch Rate: 77.3%
Contested Catch Rate: 85.7%
Contested Target Rate: 21.2%
Drop Rate: 0.0%
Yards After Catch per Reception: 4.5
Slot Rate: 10.1%
Wide Rate: 88.9%
Tate’s role was clearly perimeter-driven. He lined up overwhelmingly out wide, worked farther down the field than most of the top slot-heavy receivers in the class and paired that with elite contested-catch efficiency and dependable hands.
This is a true boundary profile, and that matters when projecting touchdown upside and target value in the NFL.
Production Snapshot
2025
Games: 11
Targets: 66
Receptions: 51
Receiving Yards: 875
Receiving Touchdowns: 9
Routes Run: 289
Yards per Game: 79.5
Touchdowns per Game: 0.82
Target Share: 17.1%
Yard Share: 23.3%
TD Share: 27.3%
Dominator Rating: 25.3%
Yards per Team Pass Attempt: 2.35
Tate's 2025 season gives him a strong production case when you factor in both efficiency and environment. The raw volume is not overwhelming compared to some slot-driven prospects, but his share of yards and touchdowns, paired with elite per-target production, points to a receiver who made his opportunities count in a high-value way.
Positive Indicators
Strong boundary efficiency
Tate's 2025 profile shows a receiver who won on the outside and turned targets into high-value production.
High-end ball skills
His contested-catch rate, touchdown efficiency and zero-drop season all reinforce a polished finishing profile.
Young age and strong translation profile
Tate's age and overall efficiency profile support the idea that there is still developmental upside on top of an already strong production base.
Areas of Concern
Less volume-driven than some top peers
His fantasy case is built more on target quality and efficiency than on overwhelming route-volume dominance.
Outside role can be more landing-spot sensitive
Perimeter receivers often need the right quarterback and usage environment to fully unlock their upside.
Average athletic profile
Tate checks enough athletic boxes to project, but he does not carry the kind of rare movement profile that erases all concern if the landing spot is poor.
Historical Model Comps
Garrett Wilson
Jameson Williams
Pat Bryant
Javon Baker
Ja'Lynn Polk
This comp cluster reflects perimeter receivers with strong downfield and catch-point traits, whose fantasy value is tied to outside usage, splash-play production and target efficiency.
Historical Fantasy Tier Outcomes
WR1 (Top 12): 31.5%
WR2 (13—24): 15.4%
WR3 (25—36): 3.4%
WR4 (37—48): 3.6%
Outside WR4 / Bust: 46.2%
These outcomes are exclusive and sum to 100%. Tate’s distribution points to meaningful upside, even though the outside archetype still carries more volatility than the safest high-volume receiver profiles.
Early Career Fantasy Outlook
Year 1: WR30—WR45
Year 2—3: WR18—WR36
Tate projects as an early rotational contributor with the upside to develop into a fantasy starter if his NFL team leans into his perimeter role and downfield strengths.
Dynasty Translation
Tate profiles as a high-upside dynasty bet built around perimeter skill, efficiency and role translation.
He brings strong 2025 production, quality downfield usage and one of the better contested-play profiles in the class. That gives him a clear path to fantasy relevance if his NFL team trusts him on the outside and gives him meaningful target value.
The current model sees him as the top receiver in the class because the full profile works together: age, role, efficiency, ball skills and production all point to a receiver who can become a difference-making fantasy asset if the landing spot is right.
This article originally appeared on The Huddle: Carnell Tate Dynasty Rookie Profile and Fantasy Outlook
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