- Joined
- May 8, 2002
- Posts
- 1,152,915
- Reaction score
- 59
You must be registered for see images attach
Can Jadarian Price replace Kenneth Walker III? Projecting rookie's 2026 season originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
Being a first-round pick comes with hefty, and perhaps unfair, expectations. We often reserve this for quarterbacks tasked with saving franchises, but these burdens are not limited to those under center. Running backs need to hit 1,000 yards, receivers have to produce like superstars, and the world puts far too much weight on sack totals along the defensive line.
Needless to say, these rookies are operating at a disadvantage, getting acclimated to a league with bigger, stronger, and faster competitors while shouldering the hopes of a fanbase. When they are attached to draft-day takes that set the tone for fans, things can get messy.
That brings us to the Pacific Northwest, where the Seattle Seahawks made the unpopular decision to take running back Jadarian Price in Round 1. One can reasonably find themselves in favor of the selection; Price had an argument to be the class's second-best back behind his Notre Dame teammate Jeremiyah Love, and the Super Bowl champion Seahawks were well positioned to make a luxury pick.
Given the loss of Kenneth Walker III to free agency and Zach Charbonnet to a late-season ACL tear, Seattle needed a win-now addition in the backfield, too. Filling those shoes will be imperative for Seattle's chances of defending its title, putting all the more responsibility on Price's plate.
Jadarian Price rookie projections
Price will have to exceed expectations to make good on his draft capital and move past the positional value discussion. It's a tall task, but one the Seahawks are prepared to help him accomplish.
Unlike Love, who will be the focal point of a bad offense on an uncompetitive team, Price's landing spot is much more conducive to success. The Seahawks should be at least average through the air, and the play-action passing that Seattle enjoys isn't overly reliant on any one back. Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Sam Darnold should be enough for an average passing offense, and if the defense remains elite, Price will get the benefits of a positive game script.
This bodes well for real-life success, even if he doesn't match Love's rookie-year production. My projection model likes Price as the clear RB2 of this class and a fine starting running back, albeit limited in total volume.
Median projection: 177 carries, 763 rushing yards, 6.2 rushing touchdowns, 30 targets, 23 receptions, 173 receiving yards, 0.9 receiving touchdowns
That volume doesn't jump off the screen, but it doesn't necessarily have to for Price to have a successful season.
For one, his volume is limited by Charbonnet's eventual return, which might land him triple-digit carries if all goes right. Seattle is also unlikely to lean too heavily on a rookie in Charbonnet's absence, potentially adding to the plates of Emanuel Wilson and George Holani.
MORE: Jaxon Smith-Njigba receives record-breaking, but not impossible, prediction
Efficiency-wise, Price's 4.3 yards per attempt is about league average, even if his volume is closer to a below-average starter. Average production is always baked into rookie profiles, given the lack of data at the NFL level. Similarly, Price wasn't a standout in the passing game at Notre Dame. He posted just 15 catches for 162 yards and three touchdowns through the air across three seasons with the Irish, giving the model pause.
Still, Price is in line for about half of Seattle's designed runs, and the Seahawks made this pick to elevate their floor, not their ceiling. He won't pop any surplus value models, but Price looking like the 16th-best back in football while proving himself as a pass-catcher would be a win for Seattle.
Seahawks fans are used to John Schneider making unconventional first-round picks, and they've grown used to trusting his process. Despite my film-based skepticism, Price has plenty going for him in terms of opportunity and supporting cast, giving him a runway to establish himself before the margins shrink in January.
More Seahawks news
- Fans may be surprised by offseason's 'best' roster move
- Could trade target lighten Jadarian Price's load?
- Jets get draft pick for 6-foot-4 wide receiver
- ESPN's 'worst' roster decision doesn't make much sense
Continue reading...
