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Jan 3, 2026; Manhattan, Kansas, USA; Kansas State Wildcats guard Nate Johnson (34) is guarded by Brigham Young Cougars forward Keba Keita (13) during the second half at Bramlage Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Scott Sewell-Imagn Images | Scott Sewell-Imagn Images
BYU goes to the Big 12 Tournament without a first round bye for the first time in its three years in the league. BYU is safely in the NCAA Tournament field, and a 6 or 7 seed seems like the most likely scenario. A couple wins would strengthen BYU’s case for a 6 seed.
This game is just inside the cutline as a Quad 2 game for BYU. KSU is 99 in NET, and opponents ranked 51-100 on a neutral are considered Quad 2.
The game tips off Tuesday at 6pm CT on ESPN+.
Kansas State and BYU by the Numbers
Kansas State KenPom: 101
NET ranking: 99
Record: 12-19 (3-15 Big 12)
Best Wins: Cal (H), Tulsa (H), Creighton (A), Utah (H), Baylor (H), West Virginia (H)
Losses: Nebraska (N), Indiana (A), Bowling Green (H), Seton Hall (H), 15 Big 12 losses
AP Ranking: n/a
BYU KenPom: 25
NET Ranking: 24
Record: 20-10 (8-9 Big 12)
AP Ranking: n/a
KenPom Prediction: BYU 90, Kansas State 79 — BYU 85% Win Probability
Point Spread: BYU -10.5
Point Total: 165.5
Kansas State Overview
Kansas State came into Big 12 play as sleeper behind high-scoring guard PJ Haggerty and some high-level shooters. That never materialized, and Head Coach Jerome Tang was fired after several blowout losses in league play.
Kansas State has one of the nation’s top scorers in PJ Haggerty, but finished dead last in Big 12 play in KenPom offensive efficiency with some awful metrics. K State has the fastest tempo in the league, and ranks bottom five in nearly every relevant offensive category. They are last in offensive rebound percentage, 15th in 3-point percentage, and 14th in turnover percentage. PJ Haggerty is a great talent, but the Wildcats offense is a mess. Sharpshooter Abdi Bashir has been out since January 17 with an injury and their offense has cratered without Bashir.
Defensively the Wildcats are a little better. They rank 10th in the Big 12 in KenPom defensive efficiency, led by the sixth best turnover rate in the league. K State is at its best when they are forcing turnovers and getting out into transition.
BYU won the first game in Manhattan 83-73. Dybantsa and Haggerty each scored 24 points and K State won the turnover battle 19-12, but BYU dominated the glass. Keba Keita had a double double with 11 points and 16 boards, and AJ grabbed 8 of his own. Rob Wright scored 18 points, and Richie had an off night with 13 points on 4-15 shooting.
Haggerty is the main player to watch. He can single-handedly take over a game by himself. 6-foot-9 big man Khamari McGriff is coming off Big 12 highs of 18 and 17 points in his last two games. McGriff isn’t a three-point shooter, but is a strong player on the block. Those guys the two biggest mismatch opportunities for BYU.
Prediction
Kansas State has shown a little big of fight since Tang’s firing, but this is a team that is probably ready to finish their season and get to the offseason so they can fully begin exploring their next destination. BYU is a double-digit favorite, but as we’ve seen over the last few weeks BYU can’t sleep on anyone. If BYU plays with the effort we saw versus UCF and other spurts, Kansas State is capable of pulling the upset. Haggerty could go for 40+ and McGriff can own the glass if BYU doesn’t rebound like they are capable of.
Ultimately, I’ll side with BYU. I think BYU could come out sluggish as they overlook Kansas State, but BYU should own the paint and be able to control the glass to come out on top.
Prediction: BYU 84, Kansas State 78
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