Broncos schedule: Win probability for every game in 2026 season

[ASFN Admin]

The Denver Broncos' 2026 schedule was announced last month, and it's a tough slate.

The first six games of the season are particularly brutal, and the Broncosare considered underdogs in five of the first six weeks of the season.

Based on 2025 records, Denver will face a .512 strength of schedule this fall. That's the 15th-hardest strength of schedule in 2026, just above middle-of-the-pack.

Oddsmakers have the Broncos listed as favorites in 10 of their 17 games, but ESPN's Mike Clay is a little more optimistic, projecting Denver to win 10.9 games this season. Clay has shared win probabilities for all of the games on the Broncos' schedule, giving coach Sean Payton's squad at least a 51% chance to win in 13 games this fall.

Broncos 2026 win probabilities​

• Week 1 at Chiefs: 48%
• Week 2 vs. Jaguars: 71%
• Week 3 vs. Rams: 39%
• Week 4 at 49ers: 51%
• Week 5 at Chargers: 49%
• Week 6 vs. Seahawks: 53%
• Week 7 at Cardinals: 82%
• Week 8 vs. Chiefs: 63%
• Week 9 at Panthers: 71%
• Week 10: Bye Week
• Week 11 vs. Raiders: 88%
• Week 12 at Steelers: 58%
• Week 13 vs. Dolphins: 96%
• Week 14 at Jets: 70%
• Week 15 at Raiders: 77%
• Week 16 vs. Bills: 63%
• Week 17 at Patriots: 50%
• Week 18 vs. Chargers: 64%

Before the regular season kicks off in September, Denver will play three preseason games in August. After going 14-3 and reaching the AFC Championship game last season, the Broncos will have Super Bowl aspirations in 2026.

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This article originally appeared on Broncos Wire: Denver Broncos schedule: Win probability for every game in 2026 season

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