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MANHATTAN — After an offseason of talking about off-the-field issues within the Big 12, it’s finally time to start talking about what might go down on the field.
The 2026 college football season is almost here, and we’re ready to project what may happen within the conference throughout the year. We’re going bold with a few predictions, including championship expectations and teams we think may flop.
Will Texas Tech remain at the top, or will someone else challenge them? Which teams are being overhyped, and which coaches may not be with their teams once the season is over?
Here are our bold predictions for the Big 12 in 2026:
When Texas Tech brought in Brendan Sorsby as its quarterback, it was looking for someone to help it get over the hump and score a single point in a College Football Playoff game.
Sorsby was supposed to be the person to help the Red Raiders avoid another embarrassing 23-0 loss to Oregon in a CFP Quarterfinal when the quarterback play looked inept. Sure, Will Hammond maybe could have made that look better, but he’s now being tasked with doing so after tearing his ACL late last season.
We’ll see how quickly TTU can get going offensively this year, but it can be thankful Texas didn’t take it up on its offer to play early this year and that it can play arguably the easiest schedule among power conference programs. The Red Raiders’ Sept. 18 game against Houston may be the most difficult matchup on the schedule. Outside of that? Home games against Arizona, Arizona State and TCU might be the most difficult.
It’s also hard to see the defense being as great as it was a year ago when it was arguably the best in college football. Replacing David Bailey, Jacob Rodriguez, Lee Hunter and others won’t be the easiest task, nor does it sound like a group that can be topped in one offseason.
The Utes had one of the best offensive lines in college football last year. That group is getting an overhaul, which could leave the Utes looking quite different, even with top players returning at quarterback and running back.
Added to that? Kyle Whittingham brought some of his best defensive players with him to Michigan, creating some questions along the Utes’ defensive front.
Utah is considered a top-three team entering the year. Let’s get bold and push them down a few spots.
It would be difficult for Oklahoma State to play worse than it has over the last few years, so an improvement should be a given. The Cowboys, however, are considered to be a dark horse in the Big 12, which seems like a reach.
The skill players are really good, led by star quarterback Drew Mestemaker, who transfers to Oklahoma State from North Texas. The Mean Green of 2025 will be aplenty with new coach Eric Morris making his way to Stillwater.
But banking on Oklahoma State to break through and be great right away seems misguided. North Texas was the runner-up in The American last year and lost its two games against ranked opponents, giving up 63 in a loss to South Florida. Let’s pump the brakes a bit, especially when the defense still enters the 2026 season worthy of being questioned.
Kansas State and Iowa State know all too well how much a trip overseas can mess with your season. Both had high expectations last year, only to struggle after opening the season in Ireland.
A week after Arizona State plays a game at Texas A&M, the Sun Devils fly to London to play Kansas. The Sun Devils opted to take a week off before consecutive home games against a desperate Baylor program and then Hawaii.
That sets up a trip to Texas Tech, a home game against Kansas State and a trip to BYU, for what could be a brutal three-game stretch in which it will need to win at least two of three. After dates with Colorado and UCF, they close the year with Oklahoma State and a trip to Arizona.
There are questions going into the year about the Sun Devils’ roster, though Kenny Dillingham deserves the trust that he’ll get it figured out. But it’s hard to imagine them breaking through after an 8-5 season, one year after making the College Football Playoff.
Not the boldest prediction, and we tried to come up with a scenario in which Texas Tech didn’t make it and Houston did. But the Red Raiders’ schedule makes it too difficult to argue against them.
TTU’s schedule? The Houston game on Sept. 18 could decide a ton, but who else could the Red Raiders lose to? TCU?
On the BYU side, aside from having a healthy quarterback and maybe the most complete roster in the league, it won’t play Texas Tech or Houston. Its most difficult games will come from a mid-season non-conference home game against Notre Dame and then the Holy War at Utah on Nov. 7.
There are some strange schedules in the league, especially when you consider Kansas State doesn’t have to play Texas Tech, BYU or Utah this year. Some of these lopsided schedules could have some strange teams in the mix late in the year.
The Big 12 had just one coach fired last season when Mike Gundy was canned by Oklahoma State early in the year. That was still the first of four coaching changes that went down, whether it was because some retired or moved to different schools.
We’re going with at least three coaching changes by the end of the year.
Baylor is the one everyone’s watching amid Dave Aranda’s struggles since winning the Big 12 in 2021. His name has been placed on just about every preseason “hot seat” preview you could find.
After that? We need to see what kind of step Scott Satterfield makes in Cincinnati when it’s coming off a 7-6 season and his first bowl appearance since taking over the Bearcats. It might be a year too early there.
The same could probably be said about Lance Leipold at Kansas if the Jayhawks hover around 5-7 for the third consecutive year. Once among the hottest names in coaching, Kansas’ expectations aren’t the highest, considering its quarterback room, and it hasn’t done much since a 9-4 season in 2023. Again, it’s probably a year too early there.
As far as coaches who could move on, BYU’s Kalani Sitake will continue to be among the hottest names in the sport each year the Cougars have success. Dillingham is in a similar boat at Arizona State. Maybe Willie Fritz could find himself in those conversations with a big year at Houston.
And you can’t forget Deion Sanders at Colorado, with a possible retirement or decision to step aside, given how much his health has been discussed in recent years. Many assume the Buffaloes are in for a rough year after going 3-9 last season.
Wyatt D. Wheeler covers Kansas State athletics for the USA TODAY Network and Topeka Capital-Journal. You can follow him on X at @WyattWheeler_, contact him at 417-371-6987 or email him at [email protected]
This article originally appeared on Topeka Capital-Journal: Bold predictions for the 2026 Big 12 football season
Continue reading...
The 2026 college football season is almost here, and we’re ready to project what may happen within the conference throughout the year. We’re going bold with a few predictions, including championship expectations and teams we think may flop.
Will Texas Tech remain at the top, or will someone else challenge them? Which teams are being overhyped, and which coaches may not be with their teams once the season is over?
Here are our bold predictions for the Big 12 in 2026:
Texas Tech vs. the field: We’re taking the field
When Texas Tech brought in Brendan Sorsby as its quarterback, it was looking for someone to help it get over the hump and score a single point in a College Football Playoff game.
Sorsby was supposed to be the person to help the Red Raiders avoid another embarrassing 23-0 loss to Oregon in a CFP Quarterfinal when the quarterback play looked inept. Sure, Will Hammond maybe could have made that look better, but he’s now being tasked with doing so after tearing his ACL late last season.
We’ll see how quickly TTU can get going offensively this year, but it can be thankful Texas didn’t take it up on its offer to play early this year and that it can play arguably the easiest schedule among power conference programs. The Red Raiders’ Sept. 18 game against Houston may be the most difficult matchup on the schedule. Outside of that? Home games against Arizona, Arizona State and TCU might be the most difficult.
It’s also hard to see the defense being as great as it was a year ago when it was arguably the best in college football. Replacing David Bailey, Jacob Rodriguez, Lee Hunter and others won’t be the easiest task, nor does it sound like a group that can be topped in one offseason.
Utah won’t finish in the top 6
The Utes had one of the best offensive lines in college football last year. That group is getting an overhaul, which could leave the Utes looking quite different, even with top players returning at quarterback and running back.
Added to that? Kyle Whittingham brought some of his best defensive players with him to Michigan, creating some questions along the Utes’ defensive front.
Utah is considered a top-three team entering the year. Let’s get bold and push them down a few spots.
Oklahoma State won’t contend for a Big 12 title, but will be better
It would be difficult for Oklahoma State to play worse than it has over the last few years, so an improvement should be a given. The Cowboys, however, are considered to be a dark horse in the Big 12, which seems like a reach.
The skill players are really good, led by star quarterback Drew Mestemaker, who transfers to Oklahoma State from North Texas. The Mean Green of 2025 will be aplenty with new coach Eric Morris making his way to Stillwater.
But banking on Oklahoma State to break through and be great right away seems misguided. North Texas was the runner-up in The American last year and lost its two games against ranked opponents, giving up 63 in a loss to South Florida. Let’s pump the brakes a bit, especially when the defense still enters the 2026 season worthy of being questioned.
Arizona State won’t break the overseas curse
Kansas State and Iowa State know all too well how much a trip overseas can mess with your season. Both had high expectations last year, only to struggle after opening the season in Ireland.
A week after Arizona State plays a game at Texas A&M, the Sun Devils fly to London to play Kansas. The Sun Devils opted to take a week off before consecutive home games against a desperate Baylor program and then Hawaii.
That sets up a trip to Texas Tech, a home game against Kansas State and a trip to BYU, for what could be a brutal three-game stretch in which it will need to win at least two of three. After dates with Colorado and UCF, they close the year with Oklahoma State and a trip to Arizona.
There are questions going into the year about the Sun Devils’ roster, though Kenny Dillingham deserves the trust that he’ll get it figured out. But it’s hard to imagine them breaking through after an 8-5 season, one year after making the College Football Playoff.
Texas Tech vs BYU in the Big 12 championship
Not the boldest prediction, and we tried to come up with a scenario in which Texas Tech didn’t make it and Houston did. But the Red Raiders’ schedule makes it too difficult to argue against them.
TTU’s schedule? The Houston game on Sept. 18 could decide a ton, but who else could the Red Raiders lose to? TCU?
On the BYU side, aside from having a healthy quarterback and maybe the most complete roster in the league, it won’t play Texas Tech or Houston. Its most difficult games will come from a mid-season non-conference home game against Notre Dame and then the Holy War at Utah on Nov. 7.
There are some strange schedules in the league, especially when you consider Kansas State doesn’t have to play Texas Tech, BYU or Utah this year. Some of these lopsided schedules could have some strange teams in the mix late in the year.
The Big 12 will have at least three coaching changes at the end of the year
The Big 12 had just one coach fired last season when Mike Gundy was canned by Oklahoma State early in the year. That was still the first of four coaching changes that went down, whether it was because some retired or moved to different schools.
We’re going with at least three coaching changes by the end of the year.
Baylor is the one everyone’s watching amid Dave Aranda’s struggles since winning the Big 12 in 2021. His name has been placed on just about every preseason “hot seat” preview you could find.
After that? We need to see what kind of step Scott Satterfield makes in Cincinnati when it’s coming off a 7-6 season and his first bowl appearance since taking over the Bearcats. It might be a year too early there.
The same could probably be said about Lance Leipold at Kansas if the Jayhawks hover around 5-7 for the third consecutive year. Once among the hottest names in coaching, Kansas’ expectations aren’t the highest, considering its quarterback room, and it hasn’t done much since a 9-4 season in 2023. Again, it’s probably a year too early there.
As far as coaches who could move on, BYU’s Kalani Sitake will continue to be among the hottest names in the sport each year the Cougars have success. Dillingham is in a similar boat at Arizona State. Maybe Willie Fritz could find himself in those conversations with a big year at Houston.
And you can’t forget Deion Sanders at Colorado, with a possible retirement or decision to step aside, given how much his health has been discussed in recent years. Many assume the Buffaloes are in for a rough year after going 3-9 last season.
Wyatt D. Wheeler covers Kansas State athletics for the USA TODAY Network and Topeka Capital-Journal. You can follow him on X at @WyattWheeler_, contact him at 417-371-6987 or email him at [email protected]
This article originally appeared on Topeka Capital-Journal: Bold predictions for the 2026 Big 12 football season
Continue reading...
