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The NL Wild Card Race.
At the All-Star break, the Diamondbacks are fighting the Cardinals and the Pirates over which team will be in best position to contend with the Marlins for the third Wild Card position in the NL. The following table shows the games back for each team and how many games the Diamondbacks have remaining against each team.
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My conclusion is the Diamondbacks could be masters of their own future. Instead of counting on the other teams to collapse, they can pass three teams to obtain the third Wild Card slot into the playoffs. The required results follow:
- Pirates: D-backs win at least 2 of 3 games.
- Cardinals: D-backs win at least 3 of 4 games.
- Marlins: D-backs win all three games.
If the Diamondbacks play well against these three teams, they have a very real chance to reach the playoffs.
This idea includes the assumption “if other [remaining] games are equal [in wins and losses].” One reason that assumption is reasonable is that the Diamondback play some weak teams: 6 games against the Rockies, 3 games against the A’s, and 3 games against the Royals. Another supporting reason is that this season, the Diamondbacks were the first team to sweep the Dodgers.
The latest series against the Cardinals showed promise.
The Diamondbacks won the last away series 2 wins to 1 loss. Their loss was a 1-run game. Because their only loss was a 1-run game, and because this series is a home series instead of an away series, I am optimistic that the Diamondbacks will again win the series. A sweep or a series win would keep the Diamondbacks on a path to the Wild-Card berth.
The Pirates series could impact whether the Diamondbacks are buyers or sellers at the trade deadline.
The series will be played before the 3 August trade deadline. At that time, if the Diamondbacks have won the Cardinal series and won the Pirates series, it could possibly be a two-team race (Diamondbacks and Marlins) for the third NL wild-card berth. That situation would likely be enough to support the Diamondbacks buying at the trade deadline.
Let’s compare the teams.
Offense. This season, the Cardinals averaged more runs scored per game (4.52 vs 4.33 runs per game). These stats are little changed from when these team last played (4.55 vs 4.28 runs per game).
Runners Left On Base. This season, the Diamondbacks left fewer runners on base per game (6.54 vs 6.82).
Defense. This season, the Diamondbacks had the better defense (33 vs 18 OAA, 28 vs 11 DRS)
Bullpens. This season, the Cardinals had more shutdown performances by the bullpen (100 vs 91). This season, the Diamondbacks bullpen is the best it’s been in years.
Starting Pitching. Each team has a thin rotation, with no room for injuries.
- The Diamondbacks have 6 injured starting pitchers (Soroka, Nelson, Burnes, Walston, Gallen, and Mena).
- The Cardinals have six injured starting pitchers on their AAA roster per Roster Resource.
“Cardinals: The Cardinals are the sport’s most interesting bubble team. They’ve managed to stay in contention despite a paper-thin rotation.” Steve Adams, MLBTR, 9 July
Pitching Matchups.
Although none of the pitchers have been announced, perhaps the matchups will be as follows.
Friday, 6:40 PM MST.
Merrill Kelly vs Andre Pallente. In July, Kelly had the better ERA (2.25 ERA vs 5.06 ERA), and Kelly had more quality starts (1 QS vs 0 QS).
This matchup is advantage Diamondbacks.
Saturday, 1:10 PM MST.
Mitch Bratt vs Matthew Liberatore. In July, Liberatore had the better ERA (2.45 ERA vs 9.00 ERA), and Liberatore had more quality starts (1 QS vs 0 QS). However, my expectation is that Bratt will only pitch 3 innings, with one or two runs allowed, which is a lot like a bullpen game. The Diamondbacks have significant chances to win this game.
This matchup is slight advantage Cardinals.
Sunday, 1;10 PM MST.
Eduardo Rodriguez vs Michael McGreevy. These are excellent starting pitchers. In July, McGreevy had the better ERA (2.19 ERA vs 3.00 ERA). In July, each pitcher had two quality starts. It’s likely the bullpen will decide this game.
This matchup is equal.
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