Analyst Gives His Best/Worst-Case Scenarios for Bucs' Defense in 2026

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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers' defense was a major disappointment in 2025.

With a reputation for being one of the strongest units in the NFL year after year, the Bucs and head coach Todd Bowles took a major step back last season.

Tampa only had 37 sacks a year ago, a far cry from what it usually produces. Aside from their rushing defense, which ranked fifth in the NFL in yards per game, the Bucs were a middle-of-the-pack defense in almost every category.

The Bucs aggressively used every resource at their disposal to improve the defense this offseason. Tampa signed multiple free agents, like Alex Anzalone, Al-Quadin Muhammad, and A'Shawn Robinson, to add an edge and "nastiness" that the defense lacked last year.

In the draft, Tampa was fortunate to have edge rusher Rueben Bain Jr., possibly the best defensive player in the class, fall into its lap at pick 15. Not satisfied, the Bucs also selected linebacker Josiah Trotter, cornerback Keionte Scott, and defensive tackle DeMonte Capehart with three of their next four picks after drafting Bain.

With all of the new additions, the defense looks much stronger than it was last year.

Of course, if those new free agents don't work out, or if the rookies struggle to adjust to the NFL, the defense can fall even further in 2026.

Gary Davenport of Bleacher Report published an article outlining his best- and worst-case scenarios for all 32 NFL defenses this season.

Here are his thoughts on the Bucs' defense.

Best-Case Scenario​


Davenport mentions the retirement of Bucs' legend Lavonte David and the big hole it leaves in the middle of the defense. He believes that if the entire linebacking group can step up to replace David, the defense won't suffer. Davenport also hopes that Bain can instantly become a premier pass rusher as a rookie, and if Tampa does a better job getting to the quarterback, the defense will improve.

"After last year's second-half collapse, there's work to be done on the Tampa defense—especially with longtime inside linebacker Lavonte David gone. In fact, there are four players vying for the starting spots inside this year. There's also a new edge-rusher in first-rounder Rueben Bain Jr., and the Bucs need the youngster to be a quick study—Tampa had just 37 sacks last year. Fill the hole in the middle and get after the quarterback more consistently, and this can be an above-average defense."

Worst-Case Scenario​


Davenport's major areas of concern are that none of the LBs being counted on to replace David will be able to make up for his loss, leaving the Bucs with a giant weakness in the middle of the defense.

He also thinks YaYa Diaby, who led the team with seven sacks a year ago, must take a step forward and hopefully create a formidable pass-rushing duo with the rookie Bain. Davenport worries that if that does not happen, the defense will be even worse in 2026.

"None of that quartet of linebackers (SirVocea Dennis, Alex Anzalone, Josiah Trotter and Christian Rozeboom) are close to the player David is. Edge-rusher Yaya Diaby has been OK, but little more. If the Buccaneers are soft up the middle and Diaby and Bain can't get after opposing signal-callers, then this defense could backslide—and it was a bottom-half unit a year ago."

Final Thoughts​


Where to begin?

With all of the new additions the Bucs have made on defense, claiming their ceiling is only "above average" seems like a major underestimation.

When it comes to the loss of David, Tampa shouldn't find it too hard to replace a player who had to be called out for "loafing" by his teammates at times last season. While David is one of the best players to ever play for the Bucs, his play fell off quite a bit last year.

Calling Diaby "OK" is also disrespectful. Diaby has developed into one of the better players on Bowles' defense, providing both pass-rushing juice and solid run defense. With a supporting cast that has been greatly improved, Diaby looks capable of having a career year this season.

Davenport doesn't mention Calijah Kancey, who is healthy after only playing in three games last season after tearing a pectoral muscle in Week 2. Having their young defensive tackle back could provide a huge boost to the entire defense.

I believe the best-case scenario for the defense is to finish inside the top-10 in most statistical categories. The Bucs deserve credit for identifying players who can help and aggressively going after them.

The biggest concern for the defense is the young and unproven secondary, which Davenport makes no mention of. If the players at the back of the defense can reach their potential, I believe this defense can be great.

If the secondary falters, and the new members of the front seven don't produce, it could be a long season in Tampa.

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