AmEast Preview: Season Finale

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Credit: Seth Poplaski (@SethPopPics on IG). Pictured: Maine Black Bears F TJ Biel.

While I’d typically have my AmEast Recap from the weekend that was, I decided to skip that process this Monday, considering we have four more games on Tuesday to decide the AmEast Tournament seeding.

Instead, I thought I’d talk about the four games on Tuesday, in the larger context of what will happen in the Big Dance based on the results.

AmEast Tournament Seeding Possibilities​

As it stands, we know a few things:

1. UMBC (13-2) has locked up the regular-season championship and the tournament’s top overall seed, regardless of Tuesday’s result against NJIT.
2. Vermont (11-4) and NJIT (10-5) will both host a tournament game, but Tuesday’s results will decide who earns the two-seed and who drops to third. NJIT has to beat UMBC while Vermont loses to Albany for the Highlanders to jump the Catamounts.
3. Lowell (8-7) is locked into the four seed and will host a tournament game.
4. New Hampshire (4-11) is locked into the eight seed.
5. Binghamton (4-12) will finish the season in ninth and miss the tournament.

Basically, all this means that Albany (7-8), Maine (6-9), and Bryant (5-10) will be jostling on Tuesday to decide who travels where for the quarterfinals on Saturday. Maine can jump Albany, and Bryant can jump Maine, but the Bulldogs can’t jump the Danes — if that makes enough sense.

Tuesday, March 3​

UMass Lowell @ Maine (6 p.m. ET, ESPN+)​

• Projection: Lowell 69.6, Maine 68.9

This is one of the two games where we have a home “underdog” with something to play for against a road “favorite” with nothing to play for. Lowell is locked into the four seed, while Maine could sneak up to the five seed with a win and an Albany loss — in that scenario, the Bears would again play the River Hawks on Saturday.

I want to take a step back and appreciate what Chris Markwood has done this season. I wrote the Bears off for dead multiple times, given all the absurd injury luck they endured. Yet here they are, with a chance to finish conference play 7-9.

The development of Mekhi Gray and Logan Carey has been a joy to watch, and the duo has wreaked havoc at the top of Markwood’s 2-3 zone (which has looked impenetrable lately). Also, Ace Flagg has started to find his jumper, making him a far more effective ’tweener (and allowing Maine to keep his defense on the court more).

Lowell is typically a bad matchup for the Bears, as the River Hawks’ flex-adjacent, cutting, rim-oriented offense is the perfect antidote for Maine’s extended pressure defense, which typically leaves the rim wide open. Austin Green is also the perfect high-post pin-man against a 2-3 zone (and he should be back for this game). That’s why Lowell dropped 91 in a double-digit win in the first head-to-head meeting. And with Darrel Yepdo playing so much better on both ends, look out.

But, again, Lowell has nothing to play for, so who knows what happens.

Look out for TJ Biel’s status. He sat out on Saturday, but my source says that was likely a planned rest day, and he should be fine to play on Tuesday.

TLDR: Great matchup for River Hawks, but motivation in question.

UMBC @ NJIT (6 p.m. ET, ESPN+)​

• UMBC 72.2, NJIT 67.0

The second of our home “underdog” with something to play for against a road “favorite” with nothing to play for. As mentioned, UMBC has the one-seed locked up, but NJIT could get the two-seed with a win and a Vermont loss.

UMBC is playing at an absurdly high level. With Jose Roberto Tanchyn evolving into a potential All-Conference player, the Retrievers have unlocked their ceiling.

Meanwhile, the cracks in NJIT’s armor have shown. The typically elite interior defense has suddenly become filled with holes, as the Highlanders allowed over 40 paint points to both Albany and Vermont. Meanwhile, they’ve stopped hitting all their 3-point jumpers (27% since Feb. 5), drastically decreasing their offensive efficiency numbers that covered up a somewhat-broken process — the ’Landers are still settling for too many 2-point jumpers, as evidenced by their 6.9-foot average 2-point shot distance (last in AmEast, 323rd nationally).

But again, UMBC has nothing to play for, while NJIT has a lot to play for.

TLDR: A tale of two teams trending in opposite directions, but the Retreivers have zero motivation to win this game, while the Highlanders have plenty.

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Bryant @ New Hampshire (6 p.m. ET, ESPN+)​

• Projection: New Hampshire 69.5, Bryant 65.9

The Bulldogs put together a very impressive win over NJIT on Saturday, again showing the cracks in NJIT’s armor. But Bryant also made some jumpers, and the interior defense locked in.

Technically, New Hampshire has nothing to play for here but pride. We’ll see if that shows. The Wildcats have lost eight straight games, partially because they haven’t made a jumper in months — a death sentence for a team that thrives on inside-out triples.

In the first meeting, Bryant broke out of an offensive slump, dropping 92 points on second-chance opportunities (19 points), hot shooting (8-for-20 from 3, 40%), and foul baiting (32-for-37 from the free-throw line).

Bryant has the defensive length to wall up against New Hampshire’s post-centric attack, and the Bulldogs are versatile enough to switch one-through-four and close out on the Wildcats catch-and-shoot perimeter shots.

On the other end of the court, I don’t trust New Hampshire’s one-on-one individual defenders against Bryant’s methodical, half-court, DHO-and-PNR-centric attack.

All in all, I like the matchup for Bryant, and the Bulldogs should be the more motivated team on Tuesday.

TLDR: I like the matchup and situation for Bryant.

Albany @ Vermont (7 p.m. ET, ESPN+)​

• Projection: Vermont 73.6, Albany 66.3

Can Albany repeat its early-season performance? The Danes’ 75-68 win over Vermont in mid-January was arguably their most complete performance of the season.

But they’ve been hot and cold since. Part of that has been injury issues, but Zach Matulu’s return really helps Albany — he’s an immensely impactful two-way player.

However, Vermont was down Noah Barnett and TJ Long in the first head-to-head meeting, and the Catamounts are a vastly different team now that those two are back on the court.

Vermont’s improved dribble defense should help against Amir Lindsey. The Catamounts are also typically an excellent ball-handling and defensive rebounding team, which negates Albany’s typical shot-volume advantages (the Danes are usually good at forcing turnovers and crashing the offensive glass).

However, Vermont did a relatively poor job of controlling the rock, rebounding and defending in transition against Lowell last Saturday. The Catamounts have been a good half-court offense and defense, but consistency around the edges has been their biggest issue this season. Additionally, the Cats need to avoid sending Albany to the charity stripe 24 times in the rematch.

TLDR: Vermont isn’t the model of consistency this season that it has been in the past. But when push comes to shove, the Catamounts typically put forth their best defensive performances in the biggest moments. I think they do that here in a win to clinch the two-seed in the AmEast conference tournament.

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