Alan Jouban names X-factor in Uros Medic vs. Daniel Rodriguez at UFC Belgrade

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Alan Jouban has trained several times with Daniel Rodriguez in the past, so he knows the danger he brings as an underdog vs. Uros Medic in Saturday's UFC Fight Night 283 headliner.

Longtime UFC desk analyst and veteran welterweight Jouban is quite compelled by Medic (13-3 MMA, 7-3 UFC) vs. Rodriguez (20-5 MMA, 10-4 UFC), who meet in their first octagon main event at Belgrade Arena in Serbia (Paramount+).

Both men bring three-fight winning streaks into the bout, where Medic is a sizeable betting favorite. "The Doctor" has a home-field advantage in Serbia and heavy hands that have proven capable of knocking out high-level fighters. Jouban understands why Medic is favored, but his history with Rodriguez, as well as studying his many fights, affords respect to the potential path to victory.

"D-Rod's got this thing, man – I was training with him when he was young, before he got into the UFC," Jouban told MMA Junkie. "I used to bring him in to spar with me, and I just always remember he has this follow-up left hand that buzzes you. You see it in his fights. He'll be losing a fight, he'll get knocked down and people get a little overzealous and go for the finish. He always had a natural ability – he's a southpaw, so a lot of people don't like to throw their power hand because it makes you put yourself more in danger and commit to the punch, whereas a check hook or something is a lot easier to stay away. Daniel has this natural ability to always finish a combination with his left hand, which is his power punch and his best punch, as well. It's natural. I've felt it. It buzzes you. He seems to get guys.

"That's what I'm going to be looking for in this fight with Uros Medic. He's a finisher, he smells blood, and he gets you out of there very quickly. Three-fight win streak, three knockouts for Uros Medic. If he hurts D-Rod, I expect to see this in the first round. I expect to see him hurt D-Rod. D-Rod's kind of got a history of getting hurt, and then hurting you after. What happens in that exchange? Did Uros do the film study? Is he able to control the emotions of not going for that finish that he's so good at? If D-Rod can find that left hand and change the course of the momentum of this matchup. That's going to be what I'm really looking at closely in this fight."

The major intangible in play on Rodriguez's side, however, is that he recently spent eight months in a Mexican prison after being arrested with marijuana in his possession while trying to cross the border. He could not maintain his typical diet and training structures while behind bars, and admitted to MMA Junkie that it's been a challenge to get himself back into form for a five-round fight.

Jouban has no doubt that's a serious factor, and tips the scales heavily into Medic's side. However, Medic has been brutally knocked out before, and Jouban doesn't discount Rodriguez's ability to land a shot during an exchange that leads to an upset.

"I think the numbers make sense in terms of, he not only just came out of a nine-month jail sentence in Mexico, but is also around 39 years old right now," Jouban said. "One guy is definitely still almost in his prime, Uros Medic, and then D-Rod is at that point where he's just doing the damn thing now and trying to provide for his kid. The numbers show that story, but D-Rod has that puncher's chance at all times."

This article originally appeared on MMA Junkie: Alan Jouban names X-factor in Uros Medic vs. Daniel Rodriguez at UFC Belgrade

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