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Ryan Fox put a bow on major season with an electric weekend at Royal Birkdale, which had no shortage of drama and storylines for us who follow the game so closely.
RELATED: Ryan Fox plays golf at one speed—fast. Here's why
2026 brought an eclectic group of major champions, a list that does not include World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler. He’s set the bar so high for himself, so it’s noteworthy that he didn’t lift a trophy despite three T-4 or better finishes. He hasn’t won at all since January’s American Express, but he’s in the field this week in Minnesota, looking to find the winner’s circle again in what will likely be his last start before the playoffs kick off in early August.
With just three events remaining between now and the playoffs, it’s an important stretch of golf for most of this week’s field.
RELATED: Si Woo Kim uses dreaded ‘C-word’ in incredibly honest self-assessment
TPC Twin Cities is a unique test. TPC Twin Cities consistently ranks among the easiest courses on the PGA Tour for making birdies, but it also produces one of the highest double-bogey-or-worse rates. Water hazards lurk throughout the property, thick rough punishes errant shots, and several risk-reward holes create constant opportunities for both birdies and big numbers. That volatility carries through to a demanding closing stretch where no lead feels secure on Sunday.
Here are my favorite plays and fades in each price range for DraftKings lineups for the 2026 3M Open:
$9,000+ range Play: Kurt Kitayama ($9,800)
Jordan Bank
The defending 3M champion offers both upside and cost savings if you’re looking to start your lineup without Scottie Scheffler ($14,900). Kitayama ranks fifth in my Rabbit Hole model at Betsperts Golf this week. When eliminating difficult scoring setups, Kitayama is gaining strokes at the third-highest rate in this week’s field. He’s also next in line behind Scheffler in strokes gained/ball-striking on similar setups, and birdie-or-better rate at easy scoring venues over the past 12 months.
Play: Jackson Koivun ($9,200)
Andy Lyons
This is the type of setup that I think Jackson Koivun can take advantage of right away. The much-hyped former top amateur has flashed an all-around game on his way to the professional ranks, with elite tee-to-green play and the ability to hole birdies in bunches. He’s not long off the tee at this stage of his career, but he’s going to keep the ball in play, and he’s gained 0.52 strokes putting in his limited tour starts over the past 12 months.
Fade: Hideki Matsuyama ($9.700)
We need to keep foul balls off the tee out of play this week. Since a wayward drive at TPC Twin Cities often results in a water ball, that’s bad news for Hideki Matsuyama. Matsuyama ranks 108th in the field this week in distance from the edge of the fairway (DFEF) over the past six months, a much better driving-accuracy metric than the binary “Driving Accuracy” rate. It tells us more about bad misses that can lead to trouble, and trouble off the tee here is a non-starter for me this week.
Sign up for the industry's leading data tool to make golf stats easy to decipher—head to BetspertsGolf.com now and get access to The Rabbit Hole for only $10 for your first month. Use promo code GD10 at sign up for this amazing deal! $8,000+ range Play: Sam Stevens ($8,400)
BEN STANSALL
Sam Stevens has earned his spot in a tier slightly above the standard PGA Tour player, but his game is perfectly suited for these weaker-field, elite tee-to-green tests. Stevens has plus distance off the tee and has feasted when the scoring conditions are easier. Over the past 12 months, Stevens has gained nearly 0.5 strokes on the field when the score relative to par is 1-under or lower, while gaining just 0.13 strokes in his other starts, which included signature events and major championships.
Play: Jordan Smith ($8,300)
STUART FRANKLIN
Jordan Smith was a surprising model darling for me this week, finishing ninth in my model with no real weakness or clear strength. He keeps the ball in play off the tee, and his recent ball-striking form is excellent. He finished T-21 (Scottish) and T-18 (Open) the past two weeks and had good results in Florida back in March, with strong showings at both PGA National (T-23) and Copperhead (solo third). With all the water in play there, those venues show up as noteworthy comp courses for TPC Twin Cities.
Fade: Tony Finau ($8,200)
I know that the course history crowd is going to be on Big Tone this week. Personally, course history is never enough to get my attention, but it’s not enough to get me to ignore a player who’s lost 0.34 strokes on approach over his past 36 rounds, and 0.64 strokes tee-to-green in his past two starts. A chalky click in bad form? No thank you.
RELATED: This story involving Ryan Fox, Cameron Young and the claret jug on an airplane is absolutely bonkers
$7,000+ range Play: Johnny Keefer ($7,800)
Warren Little
Johnny Keefer is one of the top plays in my model this week, and ironically, his statistical summary reads like peak-Finau. Keefer has been exceptional tee-to-green, gaining 1.47 strokes on the field per round over his past 24 rounds. Keefer has three T-10 or better finishes on tour this season, including a T-3 in Scotland just two weeks ago. His putter runs hot and cold, but if it’s even field average this week, I like his chances to contend. He’ll be a popular click at this price.
$6,000+ range Play: Aaron Wise ($6,600)
Andy Lyons
One of the best stories on the PGA Tour right now is the return to form for Aaron Wise. Wise was one of my guys a few years ago, someone who I’d bet on and roster more often than not back in 2021 and 2022. Wise stepped away from the game, but he’s back, and the ball-striking numbers that he flashed a few years ago have returned as well. Wise followed up his T-3 performance at the ISCO Championship with a T-15 last week in Puntacana. At $6,600, Wise is a great way to free up salary without giving up a lot of upside.
RELATED: A tough week for the R&A, a tougher week for NBC and why we'll never quit Bryson
Sign up for the industry's leading data tool to make golf stats easy to decipher—head to BetspertsGolf.com now and get access to The Rabbit Hole for only $10 for your first month. Use promo code GD10 at sign up for this amazing deal!
Ryan Noonan is the Betting Content Manager for 4for4 and Betsperts Golf, writing articles and hosting multiple shows under the Betsperts Group umbrella, including Move The Line and our Betsperts Golf Betting Show. Find him on Twitter: @RyNoonan.
Continue reading...
RELATED: Ryan Fox plays golf at one speed—fast. Here's why
2026 brought an eclectic group of major champions, a list that does not include World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler. He’s set the bar so high for himself, so it’s noteworthy that he didn’t lift a trophy despite three T-4 or better finishes. He hasn’t won at all since January’s American Express, but he’s in the field this week in Minnesota, looking to find the winner’s circle again in what will likely be his last start before the playoffs kick off in early August.
With just three events remaining between now and the playoffs, it’s an important stretch of golf for most of this week’s field.
RELATED: Si Woo Kim uses dreaded ‘C-word’ in incredibly honest self-assessment
TPC Twin Cities is a unique test. TPC Twin Cities consistently ranks among the easiest courses on the PGA Tour for making birdies, but it also produces one of the highest double-bogey-or-worse rates. Water hazards lurk throughout the property, thick rough punishes errant shots, and several risk-reward holes create constant opportunities for both birdies and big numbers. That volatility carries through to a demanding closing stretch where no lead feels secure on Sunday.
Here are my favorite plays and fades in each price range for DraftKings lineups for the 2026 3M Open:
$9,000+ range Play: Kurt Kitayama ($9,800)
You must be registered for see images attach
Jordan Bank
The defending 3M champion offers both upside and cost savings if you’re looking to start your lineup without Scottie Scheffler ($14,900). Kitayama ranks fifth in my Rabbit Hole model at Betsperts Golf this week. When eliminating difficult scoring setups, Kitayama is gaining strokes at the third-highest rate in this week’s field. He’s also next in line behind Scheffler in strokes gained/ball-striking on similar setups, and birdie-or-better rate at easy scoring venues over the past 12 months.
Play: Jackson Koivun ($9,200)
You must be registered for see images attach
Andy Lyons
This is the type of setup that I think Jackson Koivun can take advantage of right away. The much-hyped former top amateur has flashed an all-around game on his way to the professional ranks, with elite tee-to-green play and the ability to hole birdies in bunches. He’s not long off the tee at this stage of his career, but he’s going to keep the ball in play, and he’s gained 0.52 strokes putting in his limited tour starts over the past 12 months.
Fade: Hideki Matsuyama ($9.700)
We need to keep foul balls off the tee out of play this week. Since a wayward drive at TPC Twin Cities often results in a water ball, that’s bad news for Hideki Matsuyama. Matsuyama ranks 108th in the field this week in distance from the edge of the fairway (DFEF) over the past six months, a much better driving-accuracy metric than the binary “Driving Accuracy” rate. It tells us more about bad misses that can lead to trouble, and trouble off the tee here is a non-starter for me this week.
Sign up for the industry's leading data tool to make golf stats easy to decipher—head to BetspertsGolf.com now and get access to The Rabbit Hole for only $10 for your first month. Use promo code GD10 at sign up for this amazing deal! $8,000+ range Play: Sam Stevens ($8,400)
You must be registered for see images attach
BEN STANSALL
Sam Stevens has earned his spot in a tier slightly above the standard PGA Tour player, but his game is perfectly suited for these weaker-field, elite tee-to-green tests. Stevens has plus distance off the tee and has feasted when the scoring conditions are easier. Over the past 12 months, Stevens has gained nearly 0.5 strokes on the field when the score relative to par is 1-under or lower, while gaining just 0.13 strokes in his other starts, which included signature events and major championships.
Play: Jordan Smith ($8,300)
You must be registered for see images attach
STUART FRANKLIN
Jordan Smith was a surprising model darling for me this week, finishing ninth in my model with no real weakness or clear strength. He keeps the ball in play off the tee, and his recent ball-striking form is excellent. He finished T-21 (Scottish) and T-18 (Open) the past two weeks and had good results in Florida back in March, with strong showings at both PGA National (T-23) and Copperhead (solo third). With all the water in play there, those venues show up as noteworthy comp courses for TPC Twin Cities.
Fade: Tony Finau ($8,200)
I know that the course history crowd is going to be on Big Tone this week. Personally, course history is never enough to get my attention, but it’s not enough to get me to ignore a player who’s lost 0.34 strokes on approach over his past 36 rounds, and 0.64 strokes tee-to-green in his past two starts. A chalky click in bad form? No thank you.
RELATED: This story involving Ryan Fox, Cameron Young and the claret jug on an airplane is absolutely bonkers
$7,000+ range Play: Johnny Keefer ($7,800)
You must be registered for see images attach
Warren Little
Johnny Keefer is one of the top plays in my model this week, and ironically, his statistical summary reads like peak-Finau. Keefer has been exceptional tee-to-green, gaining 1.47 strokes on the field per round over his past 24 rounds. Keefer has three T-10 or better finishes on tour this season, including a T-3 in Scotland just two weeks ago. His putter runs hot and cold, but if it’s even field average this week, I like his chances to contend. He’ll be a popular click at this price.
$6,000+ range Play: Aaron Wise ($6,600)
You must be registered for see images attach
Andy Lyons
One of the best stories on the PGA Tour right now is the return to form for Aaron Wise. Wise was one of my guys a few years ago, someone who I’d bet on and roster more often than not back in 2021 and 2022. Wise stepped away from the game, but he’s back, and the ball-striking numbers that he flashed a few years ago have returned as well. Wise followed up his T-3 performance at the ISCO Championship with a T-15 last week in Puntacana. At $6,600, Wise is a great way to free up salary without giving up a lot of upside.
RELATED: A tough week for the R&A, a tougher week for NBC and why we'll never quit Bryson
Sign up for the industry's leading data tool to make golf stats easy to decipher—head to BetspertsGolf.com now and get access to The Rabbit Hole for only $10 for your first month. Use promo code GD10 at sign up for this amazing deal!
Ryan Noonan is the Betting Content Manager for 4for4 and Betsperts Golf, writing articles and hosting multiple shows under the Betsperts Group umbrella, including Move The Line and our Betsperts Golf Betting Show. Find him on Twitter: @RyNoonan.
Continue reading...
