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Each year, we’re reminded it’s a long season in real-life and fantasy baseball. That’s especially true with rotisserie leagues, though head-to-head formats can be a grind as well. In a previous article about advanced stats, we discussed comparing a player’s current underlying metrics with their recent data and league averages. That’s one way to gauge whether it might be outliers.
Draft your Yahoo Fantasy Baseball team for the 2026 MLB Season
This isn’t a strict rule, but generally speaking, we’re holding players we invested heavily in via draft capital, unless there’s a significant injury; let’s say, players within the first 10-12 rounds. Once we drafted them around pick 150 and beyond in shallower formats, we’ll likely churn about half of our rosters. With deeper formats drafting 30 rounds for 12-15 teams, the same general advice can work.
If a hitter or pitcher showed a strong track record of skills and success, be patient. If we already had concerns heading into the season, it might be harder to be patient with that given player. There’s a human element in the player analysis, where we see a player start or close a season hot or cold, which impacts us for in-season roster management.
When we discuss first- and second-half splits, we should emphasize that we’re using arbitrary points in time. To avoid hitters who had a small sample, we filtered by 100 plate appearances in either half of the season. For context, we’re using pre- and post-All-Star break in 2025 as the first and second halves. If a hitter didn’t log 100 plate appearances in either split, then they weren’t included.
The visual below shows the hitters who saw an increase of five home runs plus stolen bases in the second half.
Here's a look at a list of players who saw an increase of five home runs plus stolen bases in the second half of 2025.
The most notable players included Caleb Durbin, Christian Walker, Colton Cowser, Daylen Lile, Freddie Freeman, Gunnar Henderson, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Josh Lowe, Juan Soto, Matt Wallner, Royce Lewis, Shea Langeliers and Willy Adames. Soto, Lewis and Adames had a double-digit increase in home runs and stolen bases in the second half. Henderson wasn’t as dominant as he was in 2024, but he finished the season strong from a fantasy standpoint. Most of those hitters had a strong track record of success while others dealt with injuries or playing time challenges earlier in the season.
From a batting average perspective, the hitters below saw an increase of 50 points (0.050) or more in their second-half batting average. Notable hitters involved Andrew Vaughn, Bo Bichette, Brenton Doyle, Brett Baty, Bryan Reynolds, Bryson Stott, George Springer, José Caballero, Luis Robert Jr., Michael Harris II, Nick Kurtz, Geraldo Perdomo and Ozzie Albies.
Meanwhile, there were hitters who were awful in the first half but showed significant improvements, though they might have been cut or forgotten. Examples include Bo Naylor, Brayan Rocchio, Jake McCarthy, Jared Triolo, Joey Ortiz, Matt Shaw, Miguel Andujar and Spencer Horwitz. Most, if not all, of those players don’t have high draft capital for the 2026 season.
Here's a look at batters who saw an increase of 50 points or more in their second-half batting average in 2025.
Batting average gains can be fluky, and several of these hitters likely were fortunate from a batting average on balls in play (BABIP) standpoint. Or their batting averages and BABIPs shifted closer toward their career averages. We’ll highlight Harris below.
Michael Harris II has been a polarizing player for the Braves. Harris started slow in 2025, with six home runs, 12 stolen bases and a .210 batting average. However, he heated up in the second half, evidenced by his 14 home runs, eight stolen bases and a .299 batting average in 2025. That’s not far from Harris’ career averages, given the .243 BA and 80 wRC+ in the first half compared to a .306 BA and 134 wRC+ in the second half. Be patient with Harris if he struggles early since he consistently pushes toward and projects a 20/20 season and a respectable batting average (.274) throughout his career.
Here's a look at Michael Harris II's 15-game rolling average from 2023 to 2025.
Like the hitters, we have a minimum threshold of 50 innings pitched in the first and second half splits to weed out small samples. However, we could still argue 50 innings qualify as a small sample. First, let’s look at the pitchers who improved their ERA by 50 points (0.50 difference) in the second half, as seen below.
Here's a look at pitchers who improved their ERA by .50 points in the second half of 2025.
We included a pitcher’s BABIP difference to show that most of them had a lower BABIP in the second half, coinciding with the better ERA. That shows that these pitchers had luck in their favor, but several improved their skills. Here are the players highlighted: Brady Singer, Cade Horton, Dylan Cease, Gavin Williams, George Kirby, Jack Leiter, Jesús Luzardo, Kevin Gausman, Quinn Priester, Ryne Nelson, Sandy Alcantara, Shane Smith and Zac Gallen. Most of those pitchers tend to be drafted within the top-150 picks, making them important investments in fantasy baseball drafts.
Here's a look at pitchers who saw an increase in their K-BB percentage in the second half of 2025.
Several of these pitchers saw an increase in their K-BB% in the second half by five percentage points or more, suggesting they had better skills, which aligned with better outcomes. We’re focusing on K-BB% because we discussed in a previous article how that metric correlates well with Skills Interactive Earned Run Average or SIERA, one of the more important ERA estimators. Besides Singer, Horton, Williams, Leiter, Priester and Smith, most have been highly valued in the past or during 2026 fantasy baseball drafts, so they probably deserve more patience.
With Corbin Carroll and Francisco Lindor recovering from hamate bone surgery, we’ll want to be extra patient since they’ve been slightly behind schedule on their pre-season ramp-up. If Carroll and Lindor struggle at the plate or with their power, be patient, as hamate bone injuries can affect power. Carroll has played in under 25 plate appearances, with a 98.7 mph average exit velocity and two barrels across eight batted ball events in Spring Training. Across 12 batted ball events, Lindor had a 92.5 mph average exit velocity and no barrels.
Although I don’t typically weigh spring training data too heavily, it’s hard to ignore Jac Caglianone destroying the ball. Caglianone averaged a 95.2 mph average exit velocity with a 120.2 mph maximum exit velocity across 15 batted ball events. For context, only three hitters had a 120 mph maximum exit velocity in 2025, including Oneil Cruz (122.9 mph), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (120.4 mph) and Shohei Ohtani (120 mph). If Caglianone struggles to begin 2026, be patient because we know the elite power exists. Look beyond batting average, especially after Caglianone had a .157 batting average across 232 plate appearances in 2025.
The visual below shows the hitter leaders sorted by average bat speed at 76 mph or higher in 2025 (min. 200 swings).
Here's a look at hitters with bat speeds 76 mph or greater in 2025.
We might be less patient if Oneil Cruz burned us previously. There’s some noise in the first and second-half samples, but we still want to monitor them. Cruz went 15/27 with a .212 batting average in the first half of 2025, which fell to 5/11 and a .183 batting average in the second half. We talked about Cruz being a risky ADP bet, so some might have less patience if they were lukewarm on him during draft season. However, if we need Cruz’s power and speed, we’ll need to be patient, given the streakiness and volatility in his profile.
With Hunter Greene injured, Chase Burns seems to have locked up a starting rotation spot. There have been talks about Brandon Williamson being a part of a six-man rotation for the Reds, potentially leading to fewer starts to begin the season for Burns. His velocity is down over 1 mph (-1.3) in spring training compared to 2025. Interestingly, Burns has brought in his horizontal release point by over six inches (6.1) while raising his vertical release by 2.6 inches in spring training.
Burns was struggling with control in spring training, with a 40.5% ball rate. Although it’s a small sample, Burns’s ball checks the boxes of a rate that was higher than in his 2025 MLB sample (34.8%) and 2025 minor league sample (31.9%). I’ve argued that Burns checks the boxes of a breakout pitcher and potential ace because of his control, command (106 Location+) and stuff (115 Stuff+, 15.8% swinging-strike rate). Assuming there isn’t an injury and Burns starts slow, be patient because of the immense upside.
Nolan McLean found success early in his MLB career. He came up in mid-August and flashed high-end strikeout skills. That’s evident by McLean’s 21.8% K-BB%, 36.4% ball rate and 10.9% swinging-strike rate. McLean’s curveball was nasty, given a 20.5% swinging-strike rate in 2025. The curveball was dominant against left-handed hitters, with a .084 wOBA (.099 xwOBA) and throwing it 19.2% of the time. McLean uses 4-6 pitches to either side of the plate at a double-digit rate, showing a deep arsenal.
Here's a look at Mets SP Nolan McLean's xwOBA vs. left-handed batters by game in September of 2025.
He throws from a low arm angle (27 degrees) while generating above-average downward and horizontal movement. That indicates McLean’s arsenal can lead to whiffs and weak contact. Specifically, McLean’s sinker (+4.2), changeup (+5.6) and curveball (+5.8) dropped at an above-average rate compared to the average pitches. The sweeper (+3.5) and curveball (+7.5) moved horizontally toward his glove side significantly more than the average, hinting at the sweeper possibly leading to weak contact.
Here's a look at Nolan McLean's movement profile from 2025.
Unfortunately, McLean’s sweeper wasn’t effective against right-handed hitters (.401 wOBA, .415 xwOBA) and lefties (.453 wOBA, .544 xwOBA) in 2025. That’s notable because sweepers tend to perform better against same-handed hitters. McLean probably needs to throw the sweeper less often in the zone (57.9%) to generate more chases and whiffs.
McLean had five pitches with a Stuff+ above 105, aligning with the movement profiles and ability to generate whiffs and weak contact. If McLean struggles, trust the arsenal and the team context.
The Brewers named Jacob Misiorowski their Opening Day starter. Misiorowski’s stuff is electric, yet we know there are injury concerns based on his velocity and minor-league volume. He had a 34.6% ball rate in the MLB sample, with a 36.4% ball rate in the minors (2025). Typically, pitchers with a ball rate similar to Misiorowski should have walk rates around 6-8%, so there’s a chance his double-digit walk rate could be significantly better than the projections. Look beyond Misiorowski’s early-season results because the skills indicate a high-upside starting pitcher.
Continue reading...
Draft your Yahoo Fantasy Baseball team for the 2026 MLB Season
This isn’t a strict rule, but generally speaking, we’re holding players we invested heavily in via draft capital, unless there’s a significant injury; let’s say, players within the first 10-12 rounds. Once we drafted them around pick 150 and beyond in shallower formats, we’ll likely churn about half of our rosters. With deeper formats drafting 30 rounds for 12-15 teams, the same general advice can work.
If a hitter or pitcher showed a strong track record of skills and success, be patient. If we already had concerns heading into the season, it might be harder to be patient with that given player. There’s a human element in the player analysis, where we see a player start or close a season hot or cold, which impacts us for in-season roster management.
Hitters With Offensive Gains in the Second Half
When we discuss first- and second-half splits, we should emphasize that we’re using arbitrary points in time. To avoid hitters who had a small sample, we filtered by 100 plate appearances in either half of the season. For context, we’re using pre- and post-All-Star break in 2025 as the first and second halves. If a hitter didn’t log 100 plate appearances in either split, then they weren’t included.
The visual below shows the hitters who saw an increase of five home runs plus stolen bases in the second half.
You must be registered for see images attach
Here's a look at a list of players who saw an increase of five home runs plus stolen bases in the second half of 2025.
The most notable players included Caleb Durbin, Christian Walker, Colton Cowser, Daylen Lile, Freddie Freeman, Gunnar Henderson, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Josh Lowe, Juan Soto, Matt Wallner, Royce Lewis, Shea Langeliers and Willy Adames. Soto, Lewis and Adames had a double-digit increase in home runs and stolen bases in the second half. Henderson wasn’t as dominant as he was in 2024, but he finished the season strong from a fantasy standpoint. Most of those hitters had a strong track record of success while others dealt with injuries or playing time challenges earlier in the season.
From a batting average perspective, the hitters below saw an increase of 50 points (0.050) or more in their second-half batting average. Notable hitters involved Andrew Vaughn, Bo Bichette, Brenton Doyle, Brett Baty, Bryan Reynolds, Bryson Stott, George Springer, José Caballero, Luis Robert Jr., Michael Harris II, Nick Kurtz, Geraldo Perdomo and Ozzie Albies.
Meanwhile, there were hitters who were awful in the first half but showed significant improvements, though they might have been cut or forgotten. Examples include Bo Naylor, Brayan Rocchio, Jake McCarthy, Jared Triolo, Joey Ortiz, Matt Shaw, Miguel Andujar and Spencer Horwitz. Most, if not all, of those players don’t have high draft capital for the 2026 season.
You must be registered for see images attach
Here's a look at batters who saw an increase of 50 points or more in their second-half batting average in 2025.
Batting average gains can be fluky, and several of these hitters likely were fortunate from a batting average on balls in play (BABIP) standpoint. Or their batting averages and BABIPs shifted closer toward their career averages. We’ll highlight Harris below.
Michael Harris II has been a polarizing player for the Braves. Harris started slow in 2025, with six home runs, 12 stolen bases and a .210 batting average. However, he heated up in the second half, evidenced by his 14 home runs, eight stolen bases and a .299 batting average in 2025. That’s not far from Harris’ career averages, given the .243 BA and 80 wRC+ in the first half compared to a .306 BA and 134 wRC+ in the second half. Be patient with Harris if he struggles early since he consistently pushes toward and projects a 20/20 season and a respectable batting average (.274) throughout his career.
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Here's a look at Michael Harris II's 15-game rolling average from 2023 to 2025.
Pitchers With Skill and Result Gains in the Second Half
Like the hitters, we have a minimum threshold of 50 innings pitched in the first and second half splits to weed out small samples. However, we could still argue 50 innings qualify as a small sample. First, let’s look at the pitchers who improved their ERA by 50 points (0.50 difference) in the second half, as seen below.
You must be registered for see images attach
Here's a look at pitchers who improved their ERA by .50 points in the second half of 2025.
We included a pitcher’s BABIP difference to show that most of them had a lower BABIP in the second half, coinciding with the better ERA. That shows that these pitchers had luck in their favor, but several improved their skills. Here are the players highlighted: Brady Singer, Cade Horton, Dylan Cease, Gavin Williams, George Kirby, Jack Leiter, Jesús Luzardo, Kevin Gausman, Quinn Priester, Ryne Nelson, Sandy Alcantara, Shane Smith and Zac Gallen. Most of those pitchers tend to be drafted within the top-150 picks, making them important investments in fantasy baseball drafts.
You must be registered for see images attach
Here's a look at pitchers who saw an increase in their K-BB percentage in the second half of 2025.
Several of these pitchers saw an increase in their K-BB% in the second half by five percentage points or more, suggesting they had better skills, which aligned with better outcomes. We’re focusing on K-BB% because we discussed in a previous article how that metric correlates well with Skills Interactive Earned Run Average or SIERA, one of the more important ERA estimators. Besides Singer, Horton, Williams, Leiter, Priester and Smith, most have been highly valued in the past or during 2026 fantasy baseball drafts, so they probably deserve more patience.
Hitters That Require Patience
Corbin Carroll, OF, D-backs/Francisco Lindor, SS, Mets
With Corbin Carroll and Francisco Lindor recovering from hamate bone surgery, we’ll want to be extra patient since they’ve been slightly behind schedule on their pre-season ramp-up. If Carroll and Lindor struggle at the plate or with their power, be patient, as hamate bone injuries can affect power. Carroll has played in under 25 plate appearances, with a 98.7 mph average exit velocity and two barrels across eight batted ball events in Spring Training. Across 12 batted ball events, Lindor had a 92.5 mph average exit velocity and no barrels.
Jac Caglianone, OF, Royals
Although I don’t typically weigh spring training data too heavily, it’s hard to ignore Jac Caglianone destroying the ball. Caglianone averaged a 95.2 mph average exit velocity with a 120.2 mph maximum exit velocity across 15 batted ball events. For context, only three hitters had a 120 mph maximum exit velocity in 2025, including Oneil Cruz (122.9 mph), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (120.4 mph) and Shohei Ohtani (120 mph). If Caglianone struggles to begin 2026, be patient because we know the elite power exists. Look beyond batting average, especially after Caglianone had a .157 batting average across 232 plate appearances in 2025.
The visual below shows the hitter leaders sorted by average bat speed at 76 mph or higher in 2025 (min. 200 swings).
You must be registered for see images attach
Here's a look at hitters with bat speeds 76 mph or greater in 2025.
Oneil Cruz, SS, Pirates
We might be less patient if Oneil Cruz burned us previously. There’s some noise in the first and second-half samples, but we still want to monitor them. Cruz went 15/27 with a .212 batting average in the first half of 2025, which fell to 5/11 and a .183 batting average in the second half. We talked about Cruz being a risky ADP bet, so some might have less patience if they were lukewarm on him during draft season. However, if we need Cruz’s power and speed, we’ll need to be patient, given the streakiness and volatility in his profile.
Young Starting Pitchers Who Deserve Patience
Chase Burns, SP, Reds
With Hunter Greene injured, Chase Burns seems to have locked up a starting rotation spot. There have been talks about Brandon Williamson being a part of a six-man rotation for the Reds, potentially leading to fewer starts to begin the season for Burns. His velocity is down over 1 mph (-1.3) in spring training compared to 2025. Interestingly, Burns has brought in his horizontal release point by over six inches (6.1) while raising his vertical release by 2.6 inches in spring training.
Burns was struggling with control in spring training, with a 40.5% ball rate. Although it’s a small sample, Burns’s ball checks the boxes of a rate that was higher than in his 2025 MLB sample (34.8%) and 2025 minor league sample (31.9%). I’ve argued that Burns checks the boxes of a breakout pitcher and potential ace because of his control, command (106 Location+) and stuff (115 Stuff+, 15.8% swinging-strike rate). Assuming there isn’t an injury and Burns starts slow, be patient because of the immense upside.
Nolan McLean, SP, Mets
Nolan McLean found success early in his MLB career. He came up in mid-August and flashed high-end strikeout skills. That’s evident by McLean’s 21.8% K-BB%, 36.4% ball rate and 10.9% swinging-strike rate. McLean’s curveball was nasty, given a 20.5% swinging-strike rate in 2025. The curveball was dominant against left-handed hitters, with a .084 wOBA (.099 xwOBA) and throwing it 19.2% of the time. McLean uses 4-6 pitches to either side of the plate at a double-digit rate, showing a deep arsenal.
You must be registered for see images attach
Here's a look at Mets SP Nolan McLean's xwOBA vs. left-handed batters by game in September of 2025.
He throws from a low arm angle (27 degrees) while generating above-average downward and horizontal movement. That indicates McLean’s arsenal can lead to whiffs and weak contact. Specifically, McLean’s sinker (+4.2), changeup (+5.6) and curveball (+5.8) dropped at an above-average rate compared to the average pitches. The sweeper (+3.5) and curveball (+7.5) moved horizontally toward his glove side significantly more than the average, hinting at the sweeper possibly leading to weak contact.
You must be registered for see images attach
Here's a look at Nolan McLean's movement profile from 2025.
Unfortunately, McLean’s sweeper wasn’t effective against right-handed hitters (.401 wOBA, .415 xwOBA) and lefties (.453 wOBA, .544 xwOBA) in 2025. That’s notable because sweepers tend to perform better against same-handed hitters. McLean probably needs to throw the sweeper less often in the zone (57.9%) to generate more chases and whiffs.
McLean had five pitches with a Stuff+ above 105, aligning with the movement profiles and ability to generate whiffs and weak contact. If McLean struggles, trust the arsenal and the team context.
Jacob Misiorowski, SP, Brewers
The Brewers named Jacob Misiorowski their Opening Day starter. Misiorowski’s stuff is electric, yet we know there are injury concerns based on his velocity and minor-league volume. He had a 34.6% ball rate in the MLB sample, with a 36.4% ball rate in the minors (2025). Typically, pitchers with a ball rate similar to Misiorowski should have walk rates around 6-8%, so there’s a chance his double-digit walk rate could be significantly better than the projections. Look beyond Misiorowski’s early-season results because the skills indicate a high-upside starting pitcher.
Continue reading...
