2019 NBA Playoff Discussion

[Russ Smith]

I don't. Even without KD, they're still the best team. Their odds of winning the title are down but they're still the favorite. I'd say they just went from 95% odds to win the title to about... 33%, but still the highest odds of the field.

Hard to say Iggy is 35 now and has a knee issue, Klay and Steph are both beat up. They don't have Barnes anymore. So they have 3/5 of the 5 that were in 2 finals before KD, plus a partial Iggy.

I'd be tempted to start Bogut the next game to steal a few minutes so you don't have Looney playing too much and getting in foul trouble. Bogut can guard Capela, unless the Rockets junk their ISO for pick and roll, Bogut would be ok against Capela. And pre KD, Bogut's ability to set screens, often illegally, was huge in getting open shots for Klay and Steph.

The bench is just not nearly as good as it was 2-3 years ago. They don't have Speights, West, Livingston is past his prime etc.

 

[Russ Smith]

Kerr insists he was told it is NOT the achilles for KD

 

[Western Font]

I don't. Even without KD, they're still the best team. Their odds of winning the title are down but they're still the favorite. I'd say they just went from 95% odds to win the title to about... 33%, but still the highest odds of the field.

Yeah, it becomes murkier for sure. I'd give GS slightly higher or lower odds depending if the Sixers or Raptors win.

 

[LoyaltyisaCurse]

If Draymond Green gets two more technicals in the next game he will be suspended for game seven if necessary

 

[Russ Smith]

If Draymond Green gets two more tactical's in the next game he will be suspended for game seven if necessary

I would hope he's smart enough not to. Weird situation for Kerr the temptation is close it out in game 6 and move on, but with how beat up they are it's awfully tempting if you fall behind to just go to the bench and rest up for game 7. They said Durant is out for game 6 for sure but it doesn't sound like they've ruled him out of game 7 pending MRI, so he might be tempted to rest the starters some in game 6 and just try to win it at home. Of course if the game is close, you go for it in game 6 but if you get down 12-15 points would be tempting to just rest the key guys

 

[Ronin]

• 
  Tim Kawakami
  @timkawakami

What Steve Kerr told me late tonight about Durant: "He’s not going to play Game 6. We can all pretend and just say he’s doubtful. But he’s not playing Game 6.”

 

[Yuma]

Kerr insists he was told it is NOT the achilles for KD

Last night they said the MRI is not scheduled until today. So I think it's all conjecture until those results come out.

 

[Russ Smith]

Last night they said the MRI is not scheduled until today. So I think it's all conjecture until those results come out.

Yeah they said it came from the trainers but I agree I don't think they know for sure yet.

I found it interesting both Iggy and Draymond said it was Boogie Cousins that calmed the team down after KD got hurt. Boogie pulled them all aside and said I know you're all worried about your brother but you gotta put that aside and go win the game. I was totally opposed to them signing Boogie but mainly for his personality issues and it seems to have been a non issue. His health and defense were issues but he was actually a very well behaved player.

 

[Mainstreet]

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The Bucks are done!

 

[Mainstreet]

Jon Barry says it.... hmm.

 

[Proximo]

He's acting like they were mediocre prior to Durant... won a title... best record ever... the core of those teams are all still there and the oldest of them is Curry at 31.

The Warriors are still the best team in the league and they only need to win one game in 2 to close out the Rockets. Their margin of error is now that of a normal title contender but they're still the favorite.

I don't care what they were 4 or 5 years ago. If you just look at them recently, Durant has been dragging this team through the playoffs.

It boggles my mind anyone thinks they have a chance without him.

 

[LoyaltyisaCurse]

I don't care what they were 4 or 5 years ago. If you just look at them recently, Durant has been dragging this team through the playoffs.

It boggles my mind anyone thinks they have a chance without him.

He has...however you cannot count Curry and Klay out. luckily they have the series lead. It looks perilous but they can do it...all pressure is on Houston.

 

[Russ Smith]

I don't care what they were 4 or 5 years ago. If you just look at them recently, Durant has been dragging this team through the playoffs.

It boggles my mind anyone thinks they have a chance without him.

It's old data but in November 18 the Warriors were 23-22 in games without Curry since 14-15. And they were outscored by 53 points in those games. With Durant, Curry, Klay and Draymond they were plus 16.9 points, the staggering thing is if you take Durant or Klay out so it's Curry, Green and 1 of those 2, they are still plus 14. When you take Steph out and have Durant, Green and Klay, they're plus 5. So statistically speaking it's Steph, not KD that makes the offense that good.

As of late March the Warriors were 25-1 in games KD missed but Curry played. And the first time they beat Houston this year, was the first game KD missed.

NOt saying Durant is a bad player or they're better without him, but statistically speaking you can make the argument they can afford to lose him much more than Steph. As great as Durant is, Steph changes the geometry of the game. Teams have to guard him 30 feet away, and if they don't he'll make that shot, if they close out he'll go by them and finish(not this series) or pass out. KD has been amazing in the postseason, but statistically speaking it's Curry not Durant they need the most.

But Curry is not himself right now, great 4th quarter last night aside, and neither is Klay so those numbers without Durant are less meaningful.

 

[LoyaltyisaCurse]

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[Ronin]

Adrian Wojnarowski
@wojespn
·
2m

Golden State’s Kevin Durant has suffered a mild strain on his right calf and expected to be re-evaluated next week, league source tells ESPN.

 

[Hoop Head]

I would hope he's smart enough not to. Weird situation for Kerr the temptation is close it out in game 6 and move on, but with how beat up they are it's awfully tempting if you fall behind to just go to the bench and rest up for game 7. They said Durant is out for game 6 for sure but it doesn't sound like they've ruled him out of game 7 pending MRI, so he might be tempted to rest the starters some in game 6 and just try to win it at home. Of course if the game is close, you go for it in game 6 but if you get down 12-15 points would be tempting to just rest the key guys

I think conceding the game would be a huge mental blow to the Warriors. Sure, they can let the Rockets have that game and get some rest but that's also saying they can't win until they get rest and it could hurt them more than help if it gets in their head that they can't beat the Rockets without KD unless this and that and this goes their way. I don't think they're a strong enough team mentally to be able to pull that off. I could be wrong but I think that would be a terrible way to play game 6. They should do everything they can to close it out and if they come up short, blame it on fatigue then but don't let fatigue and rest be the reason you don't make a true run at it.

I will say that if the Warriors win this series now without KD that should stop the complaints of Houston fans about how they had the Warriors number last year but Paul got hurt. They now have the advantage and if they can't get the series when the Warriors are shorthanded they need to let it go that the fell short last year and quit blaming an injury on the reason they fell apart.

 

[Russ Smith]

I think conceding the game would be a huge mental blow to the Warriors. Sure, they can let the Rockets have that game and get some rest but that's also saying they can't win until they get rest and it could hurt them more than help if it gets in their head that they can't beat the Rockets without KD unless this and that and this goes their way. I don't think they're a strong enough team mentally to be able to pull that off. I could be wrong but I think that would be a terrible way to play game 6. They should do everything they can to close it out and if they come up short, blame it on fatigue then but don't let fatigue and rest be the reason you don't make a true run at it.

I will say that if the Warriors win this series now without KD that should stop the complaints of Houston fans about how they had the Warriors number last year but Paul got hurt. They now have the advantage and if they can't get the series when the Warriors are shorthanded they need to let it go that the fell short last year and quit blaming an injury on the reason they fell apart.

He's out both games. My take is if the game is close yes you go for game 6. If you're down 12-15 points starting the 4th I might be content to rest my starters and save them for game 7 in Oakland.

Current forecast is Durant might be available as early as game 4 of the conf finals if they get that far but even that might be a risk of worse injury. My guess is he won't play until the NBA finals if they get that far.

 

[Hoop Head]

He's out both games. My take is if the game is close yes you go for game 6. If you're down 12-15 points starting the 4th I might be content to rest my starters and save them for game 7 in Oakland.

Current forecast is Durant might be available as early as game 4 of the conf finals if they get that far but even that might be a risk of worse injury. My guess is he won't play until the NBA finals if they get that far.

I disagree. The way the Warriors play they can erase a 12-15 point deficit quicker than any other team I've seen. There is no lead safe against them, even if the Rockets with that lead. The Rockets go cold much easier than years past because they're so reliant on Harden. I would imagine D'Antoni is planning on him playing the entire 4th quarter so who knows when he'll get rest in game 6, which will also be a big factor in whether the lead is something they can overcome.

I think they need to be fighting for the win until it's over, essentially. I wouldn't fault them for pulling the plug a little earlier than the final 2-3 minutes like most teams but I wouldn't plan on it or let the players know that is being considered.

I knew KD was out until the middle of the conference finals at the soonest, sorry I didn't make that clear in my post. I don't think they'll need him as bad then but if he can return for a game 6 or 7 then they will need him as his return to the court could be enough to energize his teammates to get past their opponent more than his actual contributions to the box score.

 

[LoyaltyisaCurse]

Last time KD had a Grade 1 calf strain he was out 10 days...

 

[LoyaltyisaCurse]

...

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[Finito]

I don't care what they were 4 or 5 years ago. If you just look at them recently, Durant has been dragging this team through the playoffs.

It boggles my mind anyone thinks they have a chance without him.

Lmao “dragging this team through the playoffs”

 

[95pro]

Lmao “dragging this team through the playoffs”

Curry and Thompson are such team players that maybe they conceded a little to Durant, and allowed Durant to have the ball most of the times. Once he was out of the game, they had that old feeling of being more in control of the ball and game.

Everyone keeps saying the pressure is on the Rockets. I disagree, the Warriors without Durant still have some all-stars and former all-stars. The Rockets have one major all-star going against Klay and Curry. CP3 is old. Tucker, Capela and Rivers are role players, while Gordon was I believe a former all-star.

So if Klay and Curry lose (which i'm hoping), they'll say that Durant was indeed carrying the team. Whereas the Rockets have everything to gain, my biggest fear is that Dantoni will not make adjustments as he did not once Durant went out.

 

[Russ Smith]

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Worst part of that is he's trying to trip someone, doesn't work, and then he turns to the ref and complains about Looney blocking out Gordon.

You have probably seen the replays now from Warriors world(?) that seem to show CP3 actually "kicking" Iggy in the back of the knee on the play where Iggy got hurt in game 4.

I have to admit I wouldn't mind seeing Bogut set a really hard screen on him but he'd probably just punch Bogut in the nuts and then complain.

 

[Russ Smith]

Curry and Thompson are such team players that maybe they conceded a little to Durant, and allowed Durant to have the ball most of the times. Once he was out of the game, they had that old feeling of being more in control of the ball and game.

Everyone keeps saying the pressure is on the Rockets. I disagree, the Warriors without Durant still have some all-stars and former all-stars. The Rockets have one major all-star going against Klay and Curry. CP3 is old. Tucker, Capela and Rivers are role players, while Gordon was I believe a former all-star.

So if Klay and Curry lose (which i'm hoping), they'll say that Durant was indeed carrying the team. Whereas the Rockets have everything to gain, my biggest fear is that Dantoni will not make adjustments as he did not once Durant went out.

IU see it the other way right now people think without KD and with Steph and Klay struggling, the Warriors won't win. There's very little pressure if they win wow no KD, no Boogie, Steph and Klay and Iggy all beat up. If they lose hey great run 3 in 4 years.

Yes they have pressure but I think it's largely internal, wanting to 3 peat.

 

[Ronin]

Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania)
5/10/19, 8:49 AM
Bucks center Pau Gasol underwent surgery to repair a navicular stress fracture in his left foot and will miss the remainder of the playoffs.