It certainly could lead to a lockout but it's not guaranteed. Why would the owners care about paying out obscene salaries when the new tv contract is roughly 3 times what the old one was? They got about 900 million a year in tv revenue in the old deal, they will get about 2.6 billion on this one. That doesn't mean the cap is 3 times as high but the extra 24 million isn't close to the amount of extra tv money the owners get to spend.
The reason for a quite possible lockout is the players not the owners believe it or not. In the last one the players share went from 57 to 50 percent. The players have been complaining ever since then they want a higher %, even with the insane salary jump this year and next, they're going to want more than 50 percent. The way the CBA is structured, a % of the tv money is guaranteed to the owners, that is even in the event of a lockout they get to keep money to pay expenses, the players salaries are NOT guaranteed in a lockout so if there's a lockout the players don't get paid but the owners do. So the owners, who are already in most cases filthy rich, can afford to hold out longer in a lockout than the players can.
It's certainly possible they have a lockout but one of the things I suspect the owners are counting on is public opinion, after 2 years of watching Mozgov and Dellavadova get unreal salaries the fans aren't going to feel much sympathy when the players union says we want 52% not 50. The Warriors situation is they already extended Green 5 years 85 million I think he'll be in year 2 of that next season. Steph's deal has to be done but they get the 2nd year bump in the salary cap to do that. Assuming Durant does what he should he'll opt out to sign a new deal so the Warriors could get iffy then having to sign both Curry and Durant to big deals at the same time, but by then you could see someone like Iguodala move out to clear more cap room if they need it. It won't be easy but they can fit both guys if the cap goes up as much as expected unless one or both guys is extremely demanding in their salary. Steph is playing for 12 million right now his contract should more than double. IIRC Klay's deal expires the year after Curry's so that's where it gets really dicey as they'd be doing another deal with their 3rd star player in 2 years.