Thinking About Kerr

[Cheesebeef]

I'd like to hear your detailed reasoning Chris about how you could possibly think the Suns would have gotten the #1 seed with Marion. I suppose it's possible, but come on.

color me curious as well. Considering we were pretty much done with the East and a .500 club against the West with the majority of the schedule left to go against teams we'd been struggling with all season, I see it as HIGHLY unlikely that all of sudden that same team was going to do the 13-3 turnaround that the Shaq-Suns team did post trade v. the West.

 

[green machine]

I'd like to hear your detailed reasoning Chris about how you could possibly think the Suns would have gotten the #1 seed with Marion. I suppose it's possible, but come on.

color me curious as well. Considering we were pretty much done with the East and a .500 club against the West with the majority of the schedule left to go against teams we'd been struggling with all season, I see it as HIGHLY unlikely that all of sudden that same team was going to do the 13-3 turnaround that the Shaq-Suns team did post trade v. the West.

I had the exact same question.

The pre-trade Suns were not going to finish with a better record than the post-trade version.

 

[Ryanwb]

I think you could make the argument that the pre-trade Suns would have struggled to make the playoffs down the stretch. ....assuming a team like Dallas picked up Shaq instead of us, the Suns just wouldn't match up with any of the top 7 teams.

Shaq changed that landscape pretty quick.

 

[mojorizen7]

I had the exact same question.

The pre-trade Suns were not going to finish with a better record than the post-trade version.

Actually i agree with chris there.
Ok if not the #1 seed then i think we'd have finished second behind only N.O.
I understand the theory behind the struggles against western conference powers but i still think that "struggles" would have been a more accurate assesment down the stretch rather than actually "losing" a bunch of games like the post-trade SUNS did while re-orienting and adjusting to SHAQ. I forget now but didn't we lose something like 8 of 10 games at one point after the trade?
The SUNS were a team without that belly fire and physically overmatched before SHAQ but they were still a very well-oiled regular season machine.
Its all speculation(do we factor in the GIRICEK aquisition?) but i do think the SUNS would've finished with a better record without making the SHAQ/MARION deal only to become cannon fodder in the post-season.
Just my opinion folks.
----------------------------
Thank you Kerr for making the deal.
Personally,I would say that an NBA Finals appearance would be something to hang our hat on. Honestly though....accepting a possible defeat will be easier for me to take now.... then if the SUNS hadn't of made the trade for SHAQ that jettisoned our once gimmicky offensive style.
I wouldn't have been able to take another year of losing due to being physically outmuscled,outrebounded nightly,and just plain soft.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Actually i agree with chris there.
Ok if not the #1 seed then i think we'd have finished second behind only N.O.
I understand the theory behind the struggles against western conference powers but i still think that "struggles" would have been a more accurate assesment down the stretch rather than actually "losing" a bunch of games like the post-trade SUNS did while re-orienting and adjusting to SHAQ. I forget now but didn't we lose something like 8 of 10 games at one point after the trade?
The SUNS were a team without that belly fire and physically overmatched before SHAQ but they were still a very well-oiled regular season machine.
Its all speculation(do we factor in the GIRICEK aquisition?) but i do think the SUNS would've finished with a better record without making the SHAQ/MARION deal only to become cannon fodder in the post-season.
Just my opinion folks.

i just don't see it. And we never lost 8 of 10. We lost 6 of 9 and having looked at our schedule during that stretch and the pathetic record we had against .500 or better teams up till that point, we likely lose that many anyway and whatever games we might have won there are off-set by our 4-0 sweep of SA and GS as well as a rather shocking win over the Celtics, each of whom had (or would have) regularly been kicking our asses for the last couple years.

 

[mojorizen7]

i just don't see it. And we never lost 8 of 10. We lost 6 of 9 and having looked at our schedule during that stretch and the pathetic record we had against .500 or better teams up till that point, we likely lose that many anyway and whatever games we might have won there are off-set by our 4-0 sweep of SA and GS as well as a rather shocking win over the Celtics, each of whom had (or would have) regularly been kicking our asses for the last couple years.

Thats a fair angle Cheese,but we all know the one good thing Mike D'Antoni's SUNS teams excelled at every year......winning a ton of regular season games.

 

[MaoTosiFanClub]

No I don't believe that at all. Of course they likely would have had the #1 seed with Marion and thus would play the Nuggets. In any event, if the Suns only make it to the first or second round this trade was little more than a lateral move. I also don't consider a lateral move with huge financial implications a success.

You do realize that at the point of the Shaq trade the Suns had statistically the easiest schedule in the NBA despite playing in the Western Conference?

 

[sLapzsHaQ]

Well, I guess lots disagreed on the opinion that the Suns would end up having the best record in the East even though pre-trade, the Suns have a horrible Western record. But anyway, I still think that if the Suns didn't make it to the WCF, then yes, it would be a failure, but it's still less of a failure than still having Marion on the roster. Who knows, maybe with Marion, the Suns won't even be in the playoffs.

Financial implications, maybe Shaq would be playing well for the next two season, but yeah, 20 Million a year would be too much for the Suns if they don't win a title. So let's just hope that it's the Suns time, and not Boston.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Thats a fair angle Cheese,but we all know the one good thing Mike D'Antoni's SUNS teams excelled at every year......winning a ton of regular season games.

they weren't excelling at it this year, even before the trade. They were number 1 because a) they had played the easiest schedule in the league and b) because the West is actually DOWN this year. People can say the West has never been this good, but for the first time in almost a decade, BOTH of the favorites reside in the East. I think the West is more balanced than it's ever been with good teams than anything else but there simply isn't a great team amongst the group, which is why it's so wide open.

 

[arwillan]

we passed up sessions in last year's draft (as chris so kindly pointed out) and he dished out 24 dimes last night. *sigh*, what could have been with nash tutoring him

 

[Treesquid PhD]

How good is Kerr at personnel evaluation? Strawberry was an absolute steal at #59, even if he's just a bench role player. Landry would have been a better choice than Tucker. But in the late 20's, most picks are a gamble. But when BC took Cabarkapa 2003 ahead of David West, Boris Diaw, Leandro Barbosa, and Josh Howard; it was an unnecessary gamble that blew up.

I would think historically picks after 10 are a gamble. In fact I think outside of elite point guards almost anyone in the draft seems to be a gamble, especially centers.

 

[Weenus O'Baggins]

I had the exact same question.

The pre-trade Suns were not going to finish with a better record than the post-trade version.

The Suns had the best record in the West when they traded Marion. Kerr, D'Antoni, virtually everyone in the Suns organization has said recently that the Suns would have had a better regular season record had they just kept Marion, but the trade was made for playoff success.

And I agree completely and the trade should and will be judged by playoff success.

 

[Weenus O'Baggins]

If I haven't been clear enough right now I love having Shaq on the Suns and it has turned out great for us so far.

However, I still believe the Suns could have gotten something more, heck even a second round pick with the considerable risk they were taking at the time. As with when the Suns made the draft day trade with Portland, it was crystal clear they could have gotten more than what they got.

And while I do believe the Suns are better prepared for the post season with a far more balanced roster, I still reserve calling the trade a success until they get past the second round.

 

[CaptainInsano]

We would have lost another 2 games to the spurs and most of us would then have been jumping off a bridge right now, I'll take shaq 100 times over marion, good playoffs or bad playoffs but as long as we beat the spurs in the first round.

 

[Weenus O'Baggins]

they weren't excelling at it this year, even before the trade. They were number 1 because a) they had played the easiest schedule in the league and b) because the West is actually DOWN this year. People can say the West has never been this good, but for the first time in almost a decade, BOTH of the favorites reside in the East. I think the West is more balanced than it's ever been with good teams than anything else but there simply isn't a great team amongst the group, which is why it's so wide open.

The West is not down. What happened was you saw across the board improvements in the records of virtually every team and thus those wins have to come from somewhere. The Suns overall have played a far more difficult schedule this year than last by nature of even the Portland's of the conference being playoff threats.

 

[Cheesebeef]

The Suns had the best record in the West when they traded Marion. Kerr, D'Antoni, virtually everyone in the Suns organization has said recently that the Suns would have had a better regular season record had they just kept Marion, but the trade was made for playoff success.

so, if the Suns say something it HAS to be true. Come on Chris. Do you not see any merit to the fact that we only had that record because our schedule was so top-heavy with East teams and that we struggled mightily against the West and then in the second half of the season, only after a major change, we completely reversed that trend? Do you think that trend of playing poorly against the West would have just magically changed for no reason without the trade?

 

[Weenus O'Baggins]

We would have lost another 2 games to the spurs and most of us would then have been jumping off a bridge right now, I'll take shaq 100 times over marion, good playoffs or bad playoffs but as long as we beat the spurs in the first round.

And if we don't?

That's my point. If the Suns flame out in the first round and are saddled with a 40 million dollar aging salary albatross for the next two years, I can't see how you can call the trade a success.

 

[green machine]

And if we don't?

That's my point. If the Suns flame out in the first round and are saddled with a 40 million dollar aging salary albatross for the next two years, I can't see how you can call the trade a success.

I can't see how that would make the trade a failure, mostly because the team they had wasn't going to win a title either.

That, and figure an entire year of Shaq with the team, and the team knowing how to play with him, and I think they could be better next year.

 

[Weenus O'Baggins]

so, if the Suns say something it HAS to be true. Come on Chris. Do you not see any merit to the fact that we only had that record because our schedule was so top-heavy with East teams and that we struggled mightily against the West and then in the second half of the season, only after a major change, we completely reversed that trend? Do you think that trend of playing poorly against the West would have just magically changed for no reason without the trade?

It isn't just the Suns but virtually every person in the valley that has been involved with the Suns or the media has mentioned this. I absolutely believe we would have a better record right now with Marion than with Shaq because we wouldn't have had the huge adjustment period that we have had with Shaq.

 

[Cheesebeef]

The West is not down. What happened was you saw across the board improvements in the records of virtually every team and thus those wins have to come from somewhere. The Suns overall have played a far more difficult schedule this year than last by nature of even the Portland's of the conference being playoff threats.

I disagree. What you've seen is the top dawgs in the West got worse (a lot worse is some cases: see Dallas) old or just shattered and that combined with an influx of talent for some teams is what has given upstarts the chance to move up. It's a combination of the two but considering the fact that this is the first year in a decade that NONE of these teams would be favored against whoever comes out of the East is proof enough that the West is down. It's a lot of good teams, but there's no greatness amongst the bunch.

 

[Weenus O'Baggins]

I can't see how that would make the trade a failure, mostly because the team they had wasn't going to win a title either.

Because we took on 40 million in salary and got nothing in return.

 

[Cheesebeef]

It isn't just the Suns but virtually every person in the valley that has been involved with the Suns or the media has mentioned this. I absolutely believe we would have a better record right now with Marion than with Shaq because we wouldn't have had the huge adjustment period that we have had with Shaq.

instead of saying: "because everyone says so", can you just answer me why you think we would have started playing better against the good teams in the West with Marion post-All-Star break that we struggled with Pre-All-Star break?

 

[Weenus O'Baggins]

instead of saying: "because everyone says so", can you just answer me why you think we would have started playing better against the good teams in the West with Marion post-All-Star break that we struggled with Pre-All-Star break?

I already have said it repeatedly. We had the best record in the west at the time and we went through a large adjustment period and our record reflected it.

With Marion our longest losing streak of the season was 2 games and that happened 1 time. I would expect we would see a similiar pattern.

While it is nice revisionist history to say that we wouldn't beat San Antonio with Marion that is exactly what we had already done once. Conversely we hadn't lost to Denver in 2 years with Marion but we lost both games with Shaq.

 

[MaoTosiFanClub]

While it is nice revisionist history to say that we wouldn't beat San Antonio with Marion that is exactly what we had already done once.

Without Tony Parker.

It's pretty easy to read through the difference of opinion here. Guys like Chris would rather have the security blanket of fifty win seasons and cross his fingers that everything that needs to go right in the playoffs goes that way and we win a title. The rest of us (those whose ONLY wish is seeing a parade in Phoenix) care not about anything but winning in the playoffs.

So, if this team is better equipped for the playoffs as you said on this very thread then the trade must be a success if you only value rings over all else.

 

[Weenus O'Baggins]

Wow I did some in depth digging on the Suns schedule with Shaq and I am more convinced now. We can say that Shaq helps us against the "playoff teams" but in reality our record against playoff teams with Shaq is 7-10. That's a 41% winning percentage.