- Joined
- May 8, 2002
- Posts
- 1,256,250
- Reaction score
- 59
Big things were expected from WR Parris Campbell when the Indianapolis Colts drafted him in the second round seven years ago. But there was one clear indicator that he faced an uphill climb.
One of my spreadsheets includes details on every wideout who’s entered the NFL since 2003. Campbell is the 793rd WR to retire. Of the 792 who came before him, 60 were second-round draft picks. Those 60 WRs have averaged 619 career fantasy points -- not bad compared to most other wideouts. Only retired first-rounders have averaged more fantasy points (969).
But in most instances, wide receivers with a disproportionately high number of receptions in their final college season end up doing worse than average. Much worse. For example, among first-rounders who had 60% or more of their career college catches in their final season, they averaged only 348 fantasy points in their NFL careers. Second-rounders haven’t been much better: 360 career fantasy points.
By comparison, first-rounders and second-rounders below that 60% final-college-season mark have averaged nearly triple the career fantasy points. It’s a night-and-day difference, and it consistently plays out across more than 100 players.
Maybe general managers fall in love a little too much with receivers who come up big in their final college season, regardless of how they did previously. In other words, minimal playing time followed by a huge senior-year outburst might look great to some GMs. But it doesn’t usually translate into success.
Parris Campbell entered his final season at Ohio State with 53 career catches for 704 yards. Then he blew up in his final campaign, posting a 90-1,063-12 receiving line. That means 63% of his receptions occurred during his senior season. It was an incredible year, and it was also disproportionately productive compared to his previous seasons.
Of course, this is only scratching the surface. Campbell was a terrific footballer who tried to carve out a meaningful role in the NFL. Injuries limited his playing time, and then tough receiver competition locked him out later in his career.
The key here is not that his disproportionately productive senior season caused his limited NFL production. It’s that disproportionately productive senior seasons seem to over-hype many players who might otherwise have gone in later rounds. One big year seems to push them over the top on draft day. It’s also an indicator that these wide receivers have an uphill climb to meet or exceed expectations.
This article originally appeared on Touchdown Wire: WR Parris Campbell fantasy career: the red flag managers didn’t see
Continue reading...
One of my spreadsheets includes details on every wideout who’s entered the NFL since 2003. Campbell is the 793rd WR to retire. Of the 792 who came before him, 60 were second-round draft picks. Those 60 WRs have averaged 619 career fantasy points -- not bad compared to most other wideouts. Only retired first-rounders have averaged more fantasy points (969).
But in most instances, wide receivers with a disproportionately high number of receptions in their final college season end up doing worse than average. Much worse. For example, among first-rounders who had 60% or more of their career college catches in their final season, they averaged only 348 fantasy points in their NFL careers. Second-rounders haven’t been much better: 360 career fantasy points.
By comparison, first-rounders and second-rounders below that 60% final-college-season mark have averaged nearly triple the career fantasy points. It’s a night-and-day difference, and it consistently plays out across more than 100 players.
Maybe general managers fall in love a little too much with receivers who come up big in their final college season, regardless of how they did previously. In other words, minimal playing time followed by a huge senior-year outburst might look great to some GMs. But it doesn’t usually translate into success.
Parris Campbell entered his final season at Ohio State with 53 career catches for 704 yards. Then he blew up in his final campaign, posting a 90-1,063-12 receiving line. That means 63% of his receptions occurred during his senior season. It was an incredible year, and it was also disproportionately productive compared to his previous seasons.
Of course, this is only scratching the surface. Campbell was a terrific footballer who tried to carve out a meaningful role in the NFL. Injuries limited his playing time, and then tough receiver competition locked him out later in his career.
The key here is not that his disproportionately productive senior season caused his limited NFL production. It’s that disproportionately productive senior seasons seem to over-hype many players who might otherwise have gone in later rounds. One big year seems to push them over the top on draft day. It’s also an indicator that these wide receivers have an uphill climb to meet or exceed expectations.
This article originally appeared on Touchdown Wire: WR Parris Campbell fantasy career: the red flag managers didn’t see
Continue reading...
