Tommy McMillen vs. Alberto Montes prediction, pick for UFC Fight Night 281

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Tommy McMillen and Alberto Montes meet in the UFC Fight Night 281 main card opener Saturday at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Okla. Check out this quick breakdown of the matchup from MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom.

  • Last event's results: 3-2
  • UFC main cards, 2026: 72-39-1

Tommy McMillen vs. Alberto Montes UFC Fight Night 281 preview​


McMillen (10-0 MMA, 1-0 UFC) brings a lot of hype into the octagon with him for his sophomore appearance. In his UFC debut in April, he finished Manolo Zecchini in the first round, earning a Fight of the Night bonus for the wild, but short affair.

Montes (11-1 MMA, 1-0 UFC) also enters his second UFC bout. His debut was in March, when he submitted Ricky Turcios in the second round, earning a Performance of the Night bonus.

Tommy McMillen vs. Alberto Montes UFC Fight Night 281 expert pick, prediction​


Kicking off the main card in proper fashion is a featherweight fight between Tommy McMillen and Alberto Montes.

Both fighters are products of Dana White's Contender Series, but McMillen is undoubtedly the more popular product between the two – an opinion that's only confirmed by all the betting movement coming McMillen's way.

McMillen is a fun fighter who certainly fits the bill as far as the personalities that the UFC likes to promote go, but one can't help but think that the 28-year-old is cruising for a bruising given his porous defense and aggression.

I also worry about McMillen's propensity to push heavily forward into clinches off his strikes and resets opposite a counter-fighter and front-choke threat like Montes.

Although Montes is also still in the process of fully fleshing out his game, the fighter from Venezuela appears to be deadly from the front headlock series. For that reason, I'll take a flier on the favorite-turned-underdog in Montes to lock up a submission on McMillen by Round 2.

Tommy McMillen vs. Alberto Montes UFC Fight Night 281 odds​


Even though the oddsmakers opened the Venezuelan as the favorite, public money has practically flipped the betting line, listing McMillen -154 and Montes +130 via FanDuel.

Tommy McMillen vs. Alberto Montes UFC Fight Night 281 start time, how to watch​


As the main card opener, McMillen and Montes are expected to walk to the cage at approximately 8:10 p.m. ET. The fight streams live on Paramount+.

This article originally appeared on MMA Junkie: Tommy McMillen vs. Alberto Montes prediction, pick for UFC Fight Night 281

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