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After a Game 7 blowout win over the Denver Nuggets, the Oklahoma City Thunder have moved to the Western Conference Finals against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Only four teams remain in the 2025 NBA playoffs as they fight for a championship.
The Thunder will have little time to rest from their grueling seven-game series against the Nuggets. The classic matchup went the distance as both teams exchanged punches throughout two weeks. But OKC will only have one day to celebrate and focus on Minnesota.
Meanwhile, the Timberwolves have waited around a while. They've been off for a week after they beat the Golden State Warriors in five games. Stephen Curry's absence made it a quick series. They also gentlemen-swept the Los Angeles Lakers in Round 1.
Before the series starts with Game 1 from Paycom Center on Tuesday, Thunder Wire will preview the series and break down matchups, X-factors and pencil in a series prediction for the first-round matchup:
SGA continues his MVP roll
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Like most other opponents, Gilgeous-Alexander had his fun against the Timberwolves. He averaged 35 points on 51.1% shooting, 7.3 rebounds and 6.8 assists in four games this past season. He shot 55.6% from 3 on 4.5 attempts.
Outside of a Game 3 blip, Gilgeous-Alexander returned to his MVP form against the Nuggets. He was an efficient 30-plus points the rest of the series. The drive-heavy scorer dissected Denver's defense and drew free-throw trips. His mid-range jumper also returned to form.
The Thunder will need Gilgeous-Alexander to continue to roll along as the series' best player. No disrespect to Edwards, but the 26-year-old is the MVP favorite for a reason. He should be the top scorer on the floor as Minnesota hopes its funky zone defenses can slow him down and funnel the ball to his teammates from the outside.
Limit Anthony Edwards
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There are a lot of similarities between the roster constructions. The Timberwolves are a defensive-slanted squad whose heliocentric guard carries the offensive load. Edwards has leaped this season by developing a lethal outside jumper to complement his unreal athleticism.
That said, the efficiency is nowhere near the same levels. Edwards averaged 22.3 points on 36.4% shooting, 9.3 rebounds and six assists in four games against the Thunder. He shot an ugly 31.6% from 3 on 9.5 attempts.
Edwards has been better in the playoffs, but hasn't faced a defense like the Thunder's. Expect Lu Dort, Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace to get most of the perimeter reps against Minnesota's superstar. If they can take away decent looks from the outside, he won't be able to heat up.
How to stop Julius Randle
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The Timberwolves are back in the Western Conference Finals. That would've shocked most after they traded away Karl-Anthony Towns. But Randle's playoff production has made that possible. He's averaged 24-6-6 in the playoffs and has been Minnesota's second-best scorer.
Viewed as a playoff dropper, Randle spent the first two rounds rewriting his narrative. The Thunder must focus on Randle and not let him bully-ball into an efficient 20 points. He's Minnesota's only other viable scoring threat. The rest of the roster is filled with inconsistent role players.
Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein will get most of those assignments. Out in the perimeter, it'll be former. Banging down low, expect it to be the latter. The Thunder hope Randle returns to his regular-season form, where he develops tunnel vision and hijacks Minnesota's offense.
Depth against depth
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This will be the complete opposite of the Nuggets. In that matchup, the Thunder had the obvious depth advantage. They rolled 11 deep most of the series, besides Game 7. They'll likely have the edge against the Timberwolves, but the margin will shrink.
The Timberwolves have their bench squad. Eight players have logged decent minutes in their playoff run. Naz Reid is a consistent Sixth Man of the Year candidate whose unique skillset makes him a threat to explode for 20 points. Nickeil Alexander-Walker knows Gilgeous-Alexander the best as cousins. Donte DiVincenzio can spread the floor.
It'll be the first time the Thunder will face a team with real playoff depth. The Grizzlies and Nuggets didn't provide any challenges off the bench. Meanwhile, the Timberwolves have eight players they can legitimately trust in the highest moments.
Chris Finch's inevitable politicking
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Get ready to get upset by Finch, Thunder fans. Heck, it's already happened once this season. After the Timberwolves' miraculous 25-point comeback over the Thunder, he spent his postgame presser complaining that OKC gets away with fouls.
Finch has always been a head coach who weaponizes his bluntness to politick through the media. Expect at least one disingenuous rant from him in hopes of influencing the referees to either call more fouls on the Thunder for their hands-on defense or allow them to get more physical with Gilgeous-Alexander's drives.
To Finch's credit, he's one of the best head coaches. While the media comments might annoy other fanbases, the tactic has clearly worked in invisible ways since he goes back to it.
X-factor: Cason Wallace
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It'll be a group effort to limit Edwards, which means Wallace will get his chances to guard the multi-time All-Star. Memphis and Denver guards couldn't dominate because the 21-year-old gave the Thunder another high-end defender off their bench.
Not only has Wallace earned his rotation minutes on that end, but his outside shot has come around. He had an inconsistent regular season but has shot 39% from 3 on 2.3 attempts in the playoffs. Those numbers are good enough to make the opposing defense honest.
The Thunder have avalanched their opponent on the scoreboard with steal-to-score sequences. Wallace has played an important role as one of their best players in snatching the ball away. If he can continue that against Minnesota, that gives OKC the leg up.
Series prediction
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This will be another tough test for the Thunder. In their four regular-season matchups, the two teams split the meeting at two apiece. The Timberwolves are similarly constructed to the Thunder. They're a defense-first squad that relies on their All-Star guard to carry most of the offensive load.
That said, the Thunder are the more luxurious version. Expect these games to be low-scoring affairs. These are two of the NBA's best defenses. Minnesota's zone defense has given OKC fits this year. It will need to crack it like it did with Denver's.
But the Thunder have been the better team all season. They've thoroughly dominated the competition all season. The Timberwolves have shown flashes and their peripheral stats suggest they were better than their raw record indicates, but give me Gilgeous-Alexander and company over Edwards in a stressful Western Conference Finals series.
Prediction: Thunder in 6
This article originally appeared on OKC Thunder Wire: Timberwolves vs. Thunder West Finals: X-Factors, matchups, prediction
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