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ST LOUIS, MISSOURI - APRIL 14: JJ Wetherholt #26 of the St. Louis Cardinals rounds the bases after hitting a two-run home run against the Cleveland Guardians at Busch Stadium on April 14, 2026 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Joe Puetz/Getty Images) | Getty Images
As the Cardinals complete their first third of the season, I want to check in on some of the underlying metrics for the Cardinals’ position player core. As a group, it is hard to be anything but happy with the performance thus far. Despite losing Brendan Donovan and Willson Contreras, the team wRC+ has increased from 96 to 101. This improvement is despite some bad luck relative to expected statistics. The team BABIP of .278 is tied for sixth-worst in baseball. The team’s .313 wOBA is below their expected wOBA of .325, which is the sixth-biggest underperformance in baseball. All that to say, things are going quite well in the aggregate on the position player side.
Today I am going to highlight an underlying Statcast hitting metric from each player that I found interesting. Apologies for cutting the list off at the top eight in plate appearances, but I could not identify an interesting hitting statistic for Pedro Pages.
Ivan Herrera
Zone%: 45.6%
Ivan is having a very productive season with the bat, but is getting to his 135 wRC+ in a slightly different way than he did last season. His walk rate has increased from 9.5% to 13.5% to offset slightly lower ISO and BABIP numbers. The walks are not coming from better swing decisions, as Herrera is swinging at slightly more pitches outside the zone, but rather, they are in response to pitchers being much more careful with him. Last season, 50.9% of pitches to Herrera were in the strike zone, but that has dropped to 45.6% this season. While the walks are great, the more nibbling approach from the opposition has had some effect in corralling Herrera’s bat. His batted ball quality is down slightly as his percentile rankings have fallen in average exit velocity (78th percentile to the 49th), Barrel% (68th to 37th), and Hard-Hit% (79th to 55th).
Herrera is being more passive on pitches in the strike zone as his zone-swing% is down 4% and his swing percentage on pitches in the heart of the zone is down from 71.1% to 67.6%. The fact that Herrera has managed to maintain his production despite the relative lack of damage on contact illustrates what a great hitter he has become. Perhaps just a dash of additional selective aggression can push Ivan to even greater offensive heights.
JJ Wetherholt
Contact%: 78.9%
It is so hard to pick one metric to focus on with Wetherholt because he has been so good across the board. Just take a moment to admire his Baseball Savant hitting metrics!
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If I had to pick one concern coming into the year, it would have been Wetherholt’s contact rate. He had generally avoided strikeouts by almost never swinging at bad pitches, but even in the minors, he did not have incredible contact rates. In Triple-A, his contact on pitches inside the zone was actually below average. No problem for JJ, he has increased his contact both inside and outside the zone while moving from Triple-A to the majors and is making contact at an above-average rate overall.
Alec Burleson
Hard-Hit%: 47.4%
On the surface, Burleson is having a remarkably similar season as he did in 2025. His walks and strikeouts are each up a bit, but his isolated slugging and BABIP are almost identical to 2025. Add it up and his wRC+ is 126 compared to the 124 he ran last season. While the results are similar, Burleson’s batted ball metrics are all pointing up, most notably, his hard-hit rate has increased from 42.8% to 47.4%. Burly is hitting the ball harder and at better angles than ever. Despite the solid batting line, he is actually underperforming his expected stats.
Had you told me before the season that Burleson had further improved his quality of contact, I would have guessed that he had continued to improve his pitch selection and was swinging at more quality strikes… Instead, Burleson has increased his out-of-zone swing% from 28.8% to 35.7% while decreasing his zone-swing% from 69.1% to 64.3%.
Is this sustainable? I have no idea, but I am done trying to figure out what makes Burleson tick. Do your thing, Burly.
Jordan Walker
Launch Angle Sweet-Spot: 34.5%
Obviously a lot has changed for Walker this year, but the metric that has moved the most is his LA Sweet-Spot improving from the 5th percentile to the 57th. Interestingly, the last time he had any success hitting the ball at these productive angles was his rookie season in 2023 when his LA Sweet-Spot was in the 42nd percentile. His batted ball data isn’t the only thing that has returned to 2023 form. His contact% and zone-swing% are also similar to his rookie campaign.
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If you take the rookie version of Walker with passable contact rates and aggression in the strike zone and add in the massive jump he has made in exit velocity (89.4 in 2023 to 94.2 in 2026), you get an MVP candidate.
Masyn Winn
Bat Speed: 69.9 MPH
I had a hard time finding an individual metric that had changed much for Winn year-over-year. His bat speed is the biggest mover, going from 71.1 MPH to 69.9. Most of his batted ball metrics are down a tick and his contact rate has fallen from 84.1% to 78.5%. Still, his xwOBA is tied for his career high at .295 and his walk rate is up from 6.3% to 8.3%. Winn has been known to play through injuries, including the knee injury that kept him out of the lineup for a few games earlier this year, so that may be impacting him a bit. I do not think it is time to start worrying about Winn, but as he stacks seasons as an average to slightly below average hitter, it is getting harder to dream on more offensive upside.
Nolan Gorman
Contact Rate: 65.6%
Gorman has shaved his K% from 33.8% to 29%, but this modest improvement is not backed up by his underlying contact data. Both his in-zone and out-of-zone contact rates have decreased, and his overall contact rate has fallen from 69.2% to 65.6%. This is the fourth-worst rate in baseball among qualified hitters.
Unfortunately, there are no exciting numbers to point to that hint at Gorman regaining his power stroke. Gorman’s improved defense has made him easier to watch this year, but he is running out of time to figure things out offensively.
Victor Scott II
Groundball%: 49.4%
2026 has not gone the way Victor Scott II hoped. He talked in the offseason about focusing less on power with more of a line drive approach. To his credit, he has gotten the ball out of the air much more. His groundball% has increased from 38.6% to 49.4%. In isolation, this might be a good thing for a player with Scott’s profile, but most of the groundballs are still going to the pull-side where he does not have a chance to use his speed to leg out infield hits. His opposite-field groundball percentage of 5.7% is virtually unchanged. After putting up a 39 wRC+ in March and April, his May wRC+ of 69 is at least trending in the right direction.
Nathan Church
Chase%: 45.8%
Church chases more pitches outside the zone than almost anyone in baseball, so the fact that he has been able to provide a decent batting line (90 wRC+) is quite impressive. Church was close to average in Triple-A last season with a 41st percentile chase rate, so hopefully he can get some semblance of discipline as he gains experience at the major league level. Church is still a bit of a mystery as a player, but if he is going to be a starting caliber player, he is going to have to clean up the plate approach.
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