NET: Is There A Real Path to the NCAA Tournament?

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“Wreck-oning” My Saturday

After sitting through that embarrassment on Saturday – (the truth is, when the lead was 27 with less than 7 minutes left, that was all I could stand) – I wondered if there really is a realistic path to the NCAA tournament for the Wolfpack. I know Coach Wade keeps promising the players will play better together and reach their individual potentials, and that there will be peace in all the land. However, as a long time Wolfpack fan, I try really hard to be optimistic, but it usually starts to fade when reality comes to visit. For me, that was Saturday.

W/L	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Wins	1	3	2	4
Losses	4	1	0	0

Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
8	5	3	0

What will it take to make it to the promised land?

With the exception of the Texas (NET 71) game, NC State has consistently beaten the teams it has played ranked NET 50 or higher (lower? larger?). Without imagining any kind of miraculous transformation, but expecting them to maintain that level of performance, here’s what it would look like.

• January – Let’s ignore Clemson for the moment. BC, GT, and Cuse are Q3 and must win games. FSU is ranked NET 114 and Pitt 112, both are road games and not easy but doable. And we should go to Winston Salem feeling confident. Again, tough but winnable. A very good January that should launch the team well into the tougher remaining schedule.
• February – VaTech (NET 56) at home and at Notre Dame (NET 68) are our most likely wins in February.
• March – Stanford is NET 75 and at home.
• Resume Toppers – That leaves 7 shots to enhance the resume with some gold. At Q1 Clemson in January will be rough. In February SMU, Louisville, and UVA are tough road games. UNC in Raleigh will be loud and nasty, can’t wait. Miami (NET 36) at home is a possibility, we’ll know more about them by the end of the month after they have played some tougher games. And what a great way to launch March’s madness by beating Duke in Raleigh!

If the Wolfpack could win those specific 19, the resume would be 3 Q1 wins, 7 Q2 wins, and zero Q3 or Q4 losses going into the ACC tournament. Plus, this season’s ACC is tougher and ACC wins will be treated with higher value. That’s not the resume with which I expected to start the “reckoning”, but it should have us on Lunardi’s board.

January	3-Jan	6-Jan	10-Jan	17-Jan	20-Jan	24-Jan	27-Jan	31-Jan
Opp.	BC-A	FSU-A	GT-H	CLEM-A	PITT-A	SYR-H	WF-A
Quad	Q3	Q2	Q3	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q1

February	3-Feb	7-Feb	9-Feb	14-Feb	17-Feb	24-Feb	28-Feb	(dates)
Opp.	SMU-A	VT-H	LOU-A	MIA-H	UNC-H	UVA-A	ND-A
Quad	Q1	Q2	Q1	Q2	Q1	Q1	Q1

March	2-Mar	7-Mar	10-Mar	11-Mar	12-Mar	13-Mar	14-Mar
Opp.	DU-H	STAN-H	ACCT	ACCT	ACCT	ACCT	ACCT
Quad	Q1	Q2	ACCT	ACCT	ACCT	ACCT	ACCT

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