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Arizona has been here before.
In fact, Arizona has made it to the Sweet 16 each of the last three seasons, in four of the last five and 13 times since last reaching the Final Four in 2001.
The Cats have made it to the Elite 8 four times over that span, falling in heartbreaking fashion in 2005, 2011, 2014 and 2015.
Illinois. UConn. Wisconsin. Wisconsin.
Arizona was rightthere with a chance to break through and get the program back to where fans and everyone so desperately want to see them. Each time the Wildcats, for one reason or another, fell short.
The hope is this time will be different.
The fear is it won’t be.
Working in Arizona’s favor is the fact that the team is, as we know, quite good. You don’t bring a 34-2 record into the Sweet 16 without being one of the nation’s best teams, and even their Round of 32 victory over Utah State helped to show what will make the Cats such a difficult team to beat.
Arizona did not play a great game, making 39 percent of its shots, and still never trailed. Jaden Bradley dished out zero assists, and yet the Cats won by 11. Both Brayden Burries and Koa Peat found themselves in foul trouble, and still the freshman duo combined for 30 points, 19 rebounds, three assists and two blocks.
Of course, it helped that Mo Krivas had 14 rebounds—including nine offensive—and that Bradley and Burries both hit some big, clutch shots late.
It took all of that to beat a No. 9 seed that most metrics said was under-seeded, a Utah State team that was well coached, talented and battled until the very end.
It was a good win. A very good win. An obviously necessary win, and the kind of win that previous Arizona tournament teams have failed to come up with.
All season long we’ve felt this team might be different.
Win after win we wondered if what we were seeing in the regular season would translate to the postseason. That if the team’s balanced offense would afford the luxury of an off night or two and if its ability to crash the glass and get to the free throw line could balance out struggles in other areas. That if the team that didn’t need to make threes in wins over Florida, UConn and other ranked opponents would be able to advance in the NCAA tournament without relying on the long ball.
Turns out at least for one game, the answer is yes. Arizona does not need to be perfect, or at least an outside observer’s idea of perfect, to win. It is just that good.
This isn’t to say playing well wouldn’t help or be necessary starting this week against Arkansas and beyond, if applicable. But the beauty of this year’s Wildcats is their ability to win ugly, to find ways to emerge victorious even when not everything goes right. Their margin for error is wide, and their avenues with which to win are numerous.
Granted while it’s great to have many ways to win, you need only find one way to lose and a dream season comes to an end. It’s entirely possible this will be the last column I write during the 2025-26 basketball season.
I’d prefer it not be.
We have every reason to believe it won’t be. Arizona is favored to beat Arkansas in the Sweet 16 and will be a betting favorite over Purdue or Texas, too. Evan Miyakawa’s numbers give Arizona an 83.8 percent chance to win Thursday and a 59.7 percent chance to reach the Final Four. Meanwhile Erik Haslem has Arizona at a 67.9 percent chance of reaching the Elite 8 and a 41.8 percent chance at a Final Four.
Not that the odds being in Arizona’s favor has done anything to guarantee a favorable result for Arizona. As it stands, being favored to win adds additional pressure to the team and makes the losses that much more painful for fans.
The fans, at least many of us, have suffered through watching the Wildcats fall short of the Final Four. Every Sweet 16 or Elite 8 loss added to the scars everyone who supports the program carries to this day. It has brought about a level of pessimism or even doubt that Arizona can actually get back to the sport’s pinnacle, leaving the program just shy of being a blue blood.
Perhaps that’s why some think Tommy Lloyd would leave for the North Carolina job, because who wouldn’t see UNC as a step up from the U of A?
Indeed, Arizona’s two-and-a-half decades of failures in the tournament’s second weekend has left Arizona in a weird spot. Widely regarded as one of the nation’s better programs, its lack of somewhat recent Final Fours and championships has it on the outside looking in with regards to being truly elite.
The thing is, Arizona has been there before. And with a win Thursday over Arkansas and then a victory over Purdue or Texas Saturday, the program would be again.
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