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Jan 31, 2026; State College, PA, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions forward Gavin McKenna (72) before the game against the Michigan State Spartans at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: James Lang-Imagn Images | James Lang-Imagn Images
As of this morning, the NCAA Tournament picture looks like this, based on NPI and conference standings. Please note that projected conference tournament winners are in italics and are based on current in-conference point percentage:
Locks (6): Michigan State, Michigan, North Dakota, Western Michigan, Penn State, Providence
Safe (5): Dartmouth, Cornell, Quinnipiac, Minnesota-Duluth, Denver
Bubble In (4): Boston College, St. Thomas, Wisconsin, UConn
Automatic Qualifier (1): Bentley
Bubble Out (5): Minnesota State, Augustana, Michigan Tech, St. Cloud State, Miami
My projected bracket looks like this
Worcester Regional
- Michigan vs. UConn
- Dartmouth vs. Minnesota-Duluth
Sioux Falls Regional
- North Dakota vs. Wisconsin
- Providence vs. Quinnipiac
Albany Regional
- Michigan State vs. Bentley
- Cornell vs. Boston College
Loveland Regional
- Western Michigan vs. St. Thomas
- Penn State vs. Denver
Some things to note here:
- For the third straight week, all 16 teams in the bracket are the same.
- Gavin McKenna will play Penn State’s series this weekend against No. 2 Michigan. The Nittany Lions will have their best shot to move back up to the one seed line before the schedule lightens up again.
- I am locking Providence into the field. The Friars are on a nine-game winning streak and have a light remaining schedule. The Hockey East regular season title is within their grasp.
- Denver has moved up to safe status with only four regular season games remaining, all against teams outside of the field.
Key Games This Weekend
No. 5 Penn State at No. 2 Michigan- Friday (6:30pm on Big Ten Plus) and Saturday (5pm on Big Ten Plus)
- I will have the full preview tomorrow. A rested Penn State team is looking to stay alive in the race for the Big Ten title and the final one seed in the NCAA Tournament.
No. 20 Miami at No. 3 North Dakota– Friday at 8pm, Saturday at 7pm
- This is the only other matchup this weekend with both teams inside the top 20 of the NPI. Miami has a lot of work to do to gain an at-large bid, but a win against North Dakota would certainly help.
No. 14 Wisconsin at Ohio State- Friday (6:30pm on Big Ten Plus) and Saturday (7:30pm on BTN)
- Wisconsin saved their spot on the bubble with a sweep over Notre Dame, but the Badgers are still in a precarious position. A poor weekend against Ohio State could pop the Badgers’ bubble for good.
No. 15 UConn at Maine- Friday (7pm on ESPN+) and Saturday (7pm on ESPN+)
- Like Wisconsin, UConn is fighting for their lives on the bubble once again. A road slip-up against Maine could knock the Huskies out and put one of the CCHA bubble teams in.
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