NBA free agency predictions: Experts pick landing spots for top players

[ASFN Admin]

Welcome to the start of a new NBA calendar year as the free agency period officially starts at 6 p.m. Tuesday, June 30.

Players, agents and front office decision-makers all have their phones on alert waiting for calls and text messages about what the future holds. Die-hard fans are refreshing their social media feeds every few minutes for the latest update.

There's already been major deals that have broken the internet.

The Milwaukee Bucks sent Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bobby Portis to the Miami Heat in a package deal. The Memphis Grizzlies moved on from Ja Morant, trading him to the Portland Trail Blazers.

It's pandemonium. Trades are happening. Players will be signing new deals. Some have opted out and chose to test the market.

Here's where our NBA experts think the biggest names in free agency will end up.

LeBron James​

• Scooby Axson: If the NBA wants to turn into the 2004 Los Angeles Lakers, then James should sign with Golden State. The most logical answer would be for him to stay put in L.A. and ride out the rest of his career there. Stranger things have happened, but with the league's most dynamic scorer by his side and complementary role players, there is no reason why a title run can't be realistic.
• Mark Giannotto: The Lakers will be able to pay LeBron James more than any other team and he can continue playing with his son there. The flirtation with the Golden State Warriors feels more like posturing for a better deal from the Lakers at this point.
• Lorenzo Reyes: Lakers. At this stage of his career, it’s tough to see James wearing an entirely new jersey, as much as the Warriors noise does make sense. I also don’t know that a Golden State team with James is any closer to competing for a title than the Lakers are. James’ family is in Los Angeles. I get the sense he wants to make it work there, even if he needs to take less.
• Marcus D. Smith: I know there are a bunch of legitimate talks about LeBron leaving the Lakers, maybe for the Warriors. James playing alongside Stephen Curry feels like something that you'd force on NBA 2K. We had a glimpse of their tandem in the 2024 Olympics. It was magical but I think that's where the dream ends. LeBron spent the last eight years in Los Angeles. At age 41, I couldn't imagine him leaving.

Jalen Duren​

• Scooby Axson: Duren would be going into NBA purgatory if he wants to sign with Sacramento. His value is the most in Detroit, so both sides need to stop acting like babies and get a deal done. Unless the Pistons are so worried about Duren's no-show in the playoffs that they wouldn't dare give him max dollars for which he is eligible to receive.
• Mark Giannotto: Though Duren (and more likely, his agent) are sending signals he and the Pistons are at an impasse and he's taking meetings with other teams, Detroit has leverage since Duren is a restricted free agent. This may be a drawn-out process and it could get uncomfortable given Duren's lackluster postseason performance, but the guess here is the negotiation ends with Duren resigning with the Pistons.
• Lorenzo Reyes: Lakers. They’ve needed a defensive-minded center for some time, and are also trying to impress Luka Dončić, who will be watching what L.A. does to remain competitive. Duren is an excellent fit, and won’t be relied upon to create his own shot.
• Marcus D. Smith: Multiple reports are saying Jalen Duren wants to be a Sacramento King. It's rare that guys actually want to play for the Kings, let alone be in Sacramento. Maybe Duren sees something brewing in California's capital, or he knows that they'll pay him. The deal could likely include Domantas Sabonis, who the Kings have been looking to sell on, so there's a possibility that Duren lands in the 916.

James Harden​

• Scooby Axson: Harden's best bet is to stay in Cleveland, as his championship window is closing every year that he gets bounced from the playoffs. His $42.3 million player option will be his last big payday, so he can opt out and come back to the team on a "hometown discount" and try for another run at a ring.
• Mark Giannotto: Harden is going to stay with the Cavaliers on a more team-friendly deal.
• Lorenzo Reyes: Cavaliers. He may have declined his player option, but the move here was always going to be for the two sides to work toward a multi-year deal. There’s little doubt around this one.
• Marcus D. Smith: James Harden will be back in Cleveland. He declined his $42.3 million player option for the 2026-27 season, but it's likely that he'll still be back in Cleveland next season. ESPN's Shams Charania reported that the Cavs and Harden are working through a multi-year deal. Harden expressed desire to play in Cleveland back in May, after being eliminated in the Eastern Conference finals by the New York Knicks.

Norman Powell​

• Scooby Axson: Miami makes the most sense, but we are talking about the NBA where logic rarely rules the day. Powell is 33 years old and coming off leading the Heat in scoring. That won't happen again no matter where he goes, and a team with cap space like the Washington Wizards or Los Angeles Clippers would fulfill Powell's monetary demands.
• Mark Giannotto: The Chicago Bulls are one of the few NBA teams with legitimate salary cap space to spend this offseason and they lack a starting shooting guard. Pencil in Powell to the Bulls.
• Lorenzo Reyes: Bulls. Chicago has cap space it needs to use, and Powell could provide a solid, veteran presence (and much-needed shooting) to a roster that lacks both.
• Marcus D. Smith: Norman Powell is likely on his way out of Miami since they can't pay him $25 to 30 million, but the Chicago Bulls can. I'd say he follows the money, plus he's a natural fit for what the Bulls lack: veteran leadership and shooting.

Tobias Harris​

• Scooby Axson: Any team that is looking for a solid veteran presence would be in line for Harris' service. The Celtics aren't changing their philosophy, so they will continue to jack up 3-pointers at every turn, and Harris, with a green light to shoot when he gets in the game, would fit right in.
• Mark Giannotto: Where Harris ends up will likely depend on whether he's wants to take the midlevel exception to remain with the Pistons or play for a contender. Here's guessing he's willing to take a discount to play with Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs, who could use another floor spacer.
• Lorenzo Reyes: Celtics. Assuming Jaylen Brown is moved, Boston will need a forward who can shoot and score. Harris has had spurts of excellent play and stretches when he disappears. Boston would give him the green light to shoot, but he’d need to deliver consistency for coach Joe Mazzulla.
• Marcus D. Smith: Tobias Harris is a solid veteran, role player who can score in timely fashion. I feel like he'd stay on an Eastern Conference team for sure. I'm stuck between the Charlotte Hornets, Indiana Pacers and Boston Celtics. Since Harris has always played meaningful basketball, I'd lean towards the Celtics.

Jonathan Kuminga​

• Scooby Axson: This is a tough one, as Kuminga can be an enigma at times. He wants to get paid like the star that he isn't, and can certainly act that way when things go awry. A team like the Brooklyn Nets, where expectations are nil, would be a good fit, as they have a mix of proven scorers on the roster that would go nicely with his skill set.
• Mark Giannotto: The Clippers want to get younger and move Kawhi Leonard. Kuminga could slot into Leonard's role immediately, but they won't have enough money to get it done without trading Leonard.
• Lorenzo Reyes: Kings. They’re going in on something of a rebuild, and Kuminga is looking for a larger role — and a significant payday. Sacramento will need to get creative to make it work with the cap, but this lets Kuminga come in and be a first or second option.
• Marcus D. Smith: I'd say somewhere like Denver, but Jonathan Kuminga wants to be a star or a key contributor wherever he goes, not just a role player. Kuminga could have a chance to prove himself on the Los Angeles Clippers, if they deal Kawhi Leonard.

Rui Hachimura​

• Scooby Axson: If Hachimura wants to win, he will stay with the Lakers. If he is looking for a big payday other than what Los Angeles can offer him, he will sign with the first team that offers him a lucrative contract. His consistent play is too much for Los Angeles to give up on, so he stays where he is at for now.
• Mark Giannotto: This might be Hachimura's best chance at a payday the rest of his NBA career and staying with the Lakers would likely mean taking a little less to help their salary cap situation. I bet he takes the money and the Brooklyn Nets have plenty to spend.
• Lorenzo Reyes: Nets. Brooklyn has several young players who are still finding their way, and a veteran scorer who can space the floor is a huge need.
• Marcus D. Smith: Rui Hachimura was a huge part of the Lakers' playoff success. LA can make the money work and that includes re-signing LeBron James. He's expressed desire to stay in LA since he was traded from the Washington Wizards. I expect Hachimura to return to the Lakers.

Anfernee Simons​

• Scooby Axson: Simons will be on the floor for one reason and one reason only: to put the ball in the hoop. Other times, it's basically five-on-four, so Washington can use another outside threat, and if the Heat come up with some money, he would be a nice addition down in South Beach.
• Mark Giannotto: The Miami Heat need more shooting around Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo with Tyler Herro gone. Simons would be a nice fit in South Beach.
• Lorenzo Reyes: Heat. Miami desperately needs shooting and can mask Simons’ defensive weaknesses. He’s also from Central Florida and played high school hoops in Bradenton, so a homecoming would be a seamless fit.
• Marcus D. Smith: Anfernee Simons to the Heat is ideal. He's dynamic on offense as a scorer and can provide a spark. He has the capability to provide spacing, which will be much needed for Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo.

Mitchell Robinson​

• Scooby Axson: The Knicks play in an arena that underwent a $1 billion facelift, have an owner with unlimited funds, and don't want to pay Robinson, who was a key cog in their championship run. So Robinson needs to make his way to the left coast and join either the Lakers or the Clippers. The Lakers would be the most beneficial.
• Mark Giannotto: If Robinson wants a starting role, he'll go to the Nets. If he wants to chase another title, he'll go to the Lakers. I bet he stays in New York and makes the move to Brooklyn.
• Lorenzo Reyes: Nets. They have the cap space, they’re close enough to his current home, and they would give him a starter’s role. And since the Knicks are avoiding the second apron, it’s almost certain Robinson will play elsewhere.
• Marcus D. Smith: Mitchell Robinson to the Nets has a ring to it. After winning a chip with the Knicks, you're practically forever royalty in New York. It makes sense for Robinson to play the game he loves, in a city he loves, even if its not exactly the same team that he developed that love with.

Peyton Watson​

• Scooby Axson: Not sure why Denver wouldn't match any deal that comes Watson's way, and if they don't, the Chicago Bulls should be waiting there with open arms. A sign-and-trade makes the most sense here, as it will satisfy needs on both sides.
• Mark Giannotto: The Nuggets should match whatever deal Watson is offered and move other players to make it work. His value as a 3-and-D wing blossomed this past season.
• Lorenzo Reyes: Spurs. This feels like such a great fit for both. Watson is a defensive player whom San Antonio coaches would love. His improvement on offense also allows him help the Spurs with their shot creation.
• Marcus D. Smith: Peyton Watson has improved offensively, but it's his defensive capabilities that should really intrigue teams. The Lakers have needed more two-way wings, they get that in Watson. Watson would be a nice fit after seemingly losing Marcus Smart. Watson to the Lakers.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NBA free agency predictions: Experts pick landing spots for top players

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