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It’s that time of year, Mountain West enthusiasts. Your favorite column of predictions that will inevitably be brought up in a few months to show us how wrong we were.
The over/under guessing game is back once again for 2026. If you want to take a look at the 2025 version to see if we were right or wrong, you can check that out here. Below are the current over/underbetting lines for each Mountain West team via the good people at FanDuel. Look at each team’s over/under for wins, with some thoughts on each. Feel free to share your own thoughts in the comments section.
AIR FORCE
O/U: 6.5 Wins
The Case For: Head Coach Troy Calhoun has never had three consecutive losing seasons in his 20 years with the Falcons. That is likely why the program’s win total jumped from 5.5 to 6.5 from 2025 to this upcoming season, even though they finished last year with a record of 4-8.
Your typical Air Force-style offense of running opponents over will be back in full display once again, coming off a season where they were third in the nation in rushing.
This increase in win total may also come from the new look for the MWC, in which a lot of Air Force’s losses from 2025 came from teams no longer in town, potentially opening the door for better success in 2026.
The Case Against: Defense, Defense, Defense.
Air Force allowed more than 30 points in five of their eight losses last year, including a five-game losing skid in which four games included the Falcons giving up 44 points or more.
This is now a more experienced group heading into 2026, but that is about it in terms of positive signs for this defensive unit. Pairing this with a talented but hit-or-miss offense play style, I could see the Falcons getting to 6-6 at best, but not past the 6.5 mark.
Prediction: Under
HAWAII
O/U: 7.5 Wins
Case For: The Rainbow Warriors are back after a 2025 season to remember.
Head Coach Timmy Chang found his first winning season at the helm, as Hawaii finished 9-4 with an exhilarating bowl victory against Cal.
Most of this success can be attributed to quarterback Micah Alejado, who became the first Hawaii player to earn Freshman of the Year honors.
Alejado is back on the island and ready for his sophomore campaign. It feels like the sky is the limit for Chang and Co., especially now in what is a less daunting Mountain West.
Case Against: Was 2025 just lightning in a bottle?
Few questions remain after transfer changes and a search for more stability in the trenches. It was a season to remember, but it remains just one winning season in the last five seasons.
Through it all, the Rainbow Warriors survived an offseason without taking major hits in the portal, adding and replacing as needed. Eight wins are definitely on the table.
Prediction: Over
NEVADA
O/U: 4.5 Wins
Case For: The Wolfpack haven’t found their stride since the turn of the decade, including finishing 3-9 in 2025.
That being said, there are some spark notes to potentially get excited about heading into 2026.
Luke Duncan comes in from UCLA, looking to help at QB for an offense that was very much lackluster last season.
Adding new faces to a roster with the likes of Dylan LaBarbera and DJ Asiasi, it feels like Reno’s own is due to find their footing this year.
Case Against: As MWC’s own Dominic Gutierrez said in his Nevada tight end breakdown, there are plenty of “exciting question marks”.
That could be a good slogan for the entire program. There is talent here and there are intriguing new faces, but is there too much left up in the air to make a substantial change?
I think the Pack will benefit from the new look conference, but that still leaves the ceiling around 5-6 wins, leaving me to opt for the under.
Prediction: Under
NEW MEXICO
O/U: 8.5 Wins
Case For: It is hard not to buy into what Jason Eck is building with the Lobos. In just his first season as head coach, he led UNM to their first winning season since 2016. A nine win year is rarified air in Albuquerque.
An outstanding jump on the defensive side of the ball from 2024 to 2025 led to instant success, just short of a Mountain West title game appearance.
Jaxton Eck headlines a linebacker core and defense that looks to bring the same energy to 2026.
Questions remain if Jack Layne or Luke Moga will end up leading the Lobos throughout this year under center, but either option is solid in what the Lobos did so well last year: be serviceable and complementary to their defense.
In a lighter Mountain West, who says the Lobos can’t dominate once again?
Case Against: Four one score victories for UNM turned what could have been a 5-7 season to a 9-4 year.
Is this sustainable? Is this “Eck Magic” or just a one-year pot of gold?
Whatever you may think, first-season magic can leave doubts for any program heading into the sequel.
An achilles heel of needing to run the ball, a shoddy pass defense and the exit of tight end Dorian Thomas are all reasons to potentially be wary.
But don’t scream yet, Lobo fans. I think this is a conference championship contending squad, as a November visit from the Rebels and an October trip to the island to play the Rainbow Warriors will tell us a lot, but I just don’t think I can stamp nine wins on the cherry red just yet, hovering around eight wins.
Prediction: Under
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
O/U: 3.5 Wins
Case For: Welcome to the Mountain West, Huskies!
That could be about as warm a welcome as NIU will get in their MW debut.
It’s a blank slate heading into 2026, coming off a 3-9 season and a new coach in Interim Rob Harley.
While it seems daunting, it could also be positive, looking to reinvent Husky football.
An offense that definitely needs reinventing will need Telly Johnson to lead the way. Johnson ran for 712 yards last season, averaging 5.7. All they need is Brady Danielson or Jalen Macon to be complementary to such a run game.
On defense, the pass defense looks to be strong again, with Harley formerly being the defensive coordinator and a reloaded depth chart after the portal.
Case Against:
An interim coach with a team that lacks identity and scoring, joining a new conference?
Rowing up stream with no paddle, and then falling out of the canoe with no life jacket.
This roster does sport talent, but they will likely be underdogs in just about every game. NIU is the one MW team that will be facing a tougher conference schedule, moving from the MAC.
A big part of this is the travel schedule. DeKalb and San Jose aren’t exactly neighboring…
I think we will see some competitive battles, but it will be nothing more than that.
Prediction: Under
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
O/U: 8.5 Wins
Case For: North Dakota State has yet to play a Mountain West snap, but has already generated quite the buzz across the conference.
Well known as an FCS power, the Bison has finally made the move to FBS, with many talents in green and yellow making preseason lists and watch lists ahead of this fall.
Names like Donovan Woolen and Nathan Hayes highlight this bunch from the north, do they need to reinvent themselves at a new level?
If anything, it should be more of the same.
Battling in the trenches, running the ball and talent on defense has been the name of the game for the Bison through their FCS dominance. Why change now?
Case Against: You need your skill players in a move like this to the FBS, and for the Bison, that is a department that has recently been flushed.
A lot of exits on offense leave a lot of “maybes” for their scoring production, on top of handling their first ever 11 game FBS slate.
This schedule includes road games against UNLV, New Mexico and Hawaii, which is quite the gauntlet as the top three conference favorites. I see NDSU performing and being a good watch this season, hunting for a bowl, but I don’t think they cross 8.5 victories.
Prediction: Under
SAN JOSE STATE
O/U: 5.5 Wins
Case For: The state of California feels a bit empty after the MW/PAC split, but can the Spartans fill the void on the golden coast?
A 3-9 2025 record and a mass exodus of players from last year make it feel like the SJSU left the party along with their former in-state foes, but instead of heading to the PAC, they entered a fog.
Doom and gloom aside, senior quarterback Luke Weaver enters the fray as a potential light, looking to lead names like Sacramento State transfer receiver Jordan Anderson and Penn State transfer Anthony Ivey.
Weaver’s short, but successful glimpses at Hawaii last season leave the QB position better than the Spartans found it in 2025.
If this rag-tag bunch can piece it together behind him, they definitely could find themselves hunting for bowl eligibility in the new MW.
Case Against: Rag-tag roster, or island of misfit toys?
The talent is certainly on the table, but a lack of experience with basically a whole new group entering the program leaves me doubtful this fall.
Making plays when needed and holding onto leads is where SJSU struggled last season, and with not many veterans to try and rectify these wrongs, it may lead to another year of late game slips and victories turned losses.
This is a squad that is better than 3-9, but not by much, leaving them under the 5.5 mark.
Prediction: Under
UNLV
O/U: 8.5 Wins
Case For: If you ask most people, they will say it is UNLV’s conference to lose this season.
Rightfully so.
Headlined by the addition of Jackson Arnold to the QB position, the Rebels have acquired a lot of talent this past season.
There was a lot of turnover as well in the portal, but Dan Mullen’s additions have seemed to glare over that footnote.
Jai’Den Thomas does return, and he will be a pivotal piece, as the preseason all-conference first team running back rushed for over 1,000 yards last season.
Defense has always been a bit shaky since Mullen came to Sin City, but new faces like Cam Santee and Herb Gray could hopefully settle down those qualms.
Case Against:
I like the defensive additions and eye candy that UNLV has brought to the 2026 table.
But, reliability remains a question in the trenches.
Seven of the top nine tacklers from last season’s time are now gone, in a year where the Rebels allowed 28 points per game, including a 10th-ranked rush defense in conference.
The 2025 defensive page includes some crooked and ugly numbers for a team that was conference title game bound. I am not sure how sustainable that formula can be, as Mullen and Co. will look for the unit to take a major leap forward in 2026.
Still, in a weaker conference now, I think the Rebels talent and new faces will prevail.
Prediction: Over
UTEP
O/U: 3.5 Wins
Case For: It won’t be a warm welcome either for the newcoming Miners.
Coming off a 2-10 season before heading into the MW, on top of a total overhaul heading into 2026, people remain low on this El Paso crew.
However, one bright spot in Scotty Walden’s three seasons at the helm: recruiting. A very valuable asset in UTEP’s current situation.
UTEP owns the 4th best 2026 recruiting class in the Mountain West, according to 247 Sports.
Names like Kane White-Tinsley and Bodey Weaver highlight this class, adding potential to the outlook of this program. When you hit rock bottom, the only way to go is up, right?
Case Against: That climb from rock bottom may have to wait another season, as 2026 doesn’t look to be the coming out party for UTEP.
A team that lacks identity on offense will need new faces like EJ Colson to help lead the charge, on top of returns such as Kam Thomas.
Their defense features some standouts, but is it enough to get excited about when the non-conference slate features Michigan, Oklahoma and Oregon State, on top of tough conference battles versus Hawaii, at NDSU and New Mexico?
I’m not quite sure.
Prediction: Under
WYOMING
O/U: 5.5 Wins
Case For:Wyoming finds itself kind of in no man’s land for this new era of the Mountain West. (Fitting for a team from Laramie).
Early success this decade was quickly followed by the exit of Craig Bohl and now two losing seasons under Jay Sawvel.
That being said, this could be the Cowboys time to pounce.
A new look on offense starts with William & Mary transfer Tyler Hughes and returning running back Samuel Harris, adding quickness that Wyoming lacked last season, along with former Buffalo Bill coordinator Christian Taylor now with the ‘Boys as OC.
A new style of offense could finally reward a defense that has been sturdy, with Sawvel being a defensive mind, as the unit was overlooked by the offense’s inability to score.
Diore Hubbard and Eric Richardson are names that should also help reinvent the offense, and hopefully invent a way to put points on the board (to the relief of all Wyoming fans).
Case Against: Everything starts at the line of scrimmage, and that is where question marks remain for Wyoming.
Lack of experience and new faces litter both the offensive and defensive lines, making the countability of these units yet to be seen.
Hughes and Co. are here to revamp the offense, but if they don’t have protection or time, then what is the point?
A favorable schedule, especially late in the season, should still help the boys from Laramie get back to the bowl conversation, likely finishing around 6-6.
Prediction: Over
Your turn: Are you taking the over or the under for each Mountain West team this season?
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