Mariners' Luis Castillo's Statcast numbers make his problems look long-term

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Mariners' Luis Castillo's Statcast numbers make his problems look long-term originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

Luis Castillo has been a reliable starting pitcher in MLB for a long time between the Cincinnati Reds and Seattle Mariners.

That time might be coming to an end this season for the Mariners, though.

"While Castillo finished 2025 with a 3.54 ERA over 32 starts, we saw signs of cracks forming in the foundations as his whiff, strikeout and barrel rates all regressed to career-worst levels," MLB.com's Thomas Harrigan wrote in a new article this weekend. "Those key metrics have continued to trend in the wrong direction this year, contributing to a 6.35 ERA through seven starts. That would be concerning for any pitcher, much less a 33-year-old who put a lot of mileage on his arm from 2018-25 (1,321 1/3 IP)."

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Let's dig into some of those key metrics that Harrigan references.

Castillo gives up some of the hardest contact in the game -- he ranks in the eighth percentile for average exit velocity, giving up contact at an average of 91.7 miles per hour.

His strikeout percentage is below average, and he gives up too much barrel percentage (12.6%) and hard-hit percentage (47.4%).

An intriguing stat that's hard to know exactly what to make of it is this -- Castillo ranks in the 1st-percentile, essentially last, in extension. That's measured in feet, and Castillo's is just 5.5 feet.

That means, in essence, hitters have just a little bit longer to react to his pitches as they're coming toward home plate.

When you consider that Castillo might simply be declining some, and that his metrics back it up, he may not have much longer to last in the Seattle starting rotation.

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