Kamala Harris’ Chances of Beating JD Vance, New 2028 Poll Shows

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Former Vice President Kamala Harris is leading both Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio in hypothetical matchups for the 2028 presidential election, a new poll from the Public Sentiment Institute shows on Thursday.

Early positioning by potential candidates has carried added weight, as polling since 2025 has suggested close hypothetical contests between Vance and prominent Democrats while highlighting uncertainty within both parties.

Within the Democratic field, surveys in 2026 show Harris leading prospective primary voters overall in many polls, with California Governor Gavin Newsom and New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez also drawing measurable support, along with former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.

No candidate has formally announced their candidacy.

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Vice President JD Vance speaks during an event at Milbank Manufacturing Company on Monday in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Eric Lee-Pool/Getty Images)

What To Know​


According to the poll, Harris leads Vance 47 percent versus 38.9 percent. Against Rubio, Harris has 46.9 percent versus his 38.9 percent. The poll also shows Harris leading versus Florida Republican Governor Ron DeSantis, 47.2 percent to 38.8 percent, and Texas Republican Senator Ted Cruz, 46.1 percent to 38.5 percent.

Buttigieg trails Harris but still leads Vance with 45.7 percent to 39.8 percent and also leads Rubio, 44.3 percent to 39 percent. Against DeSantis, Buttigieg leads 45.2 percent to 37.3 percent and against Cruz, he’s ahead with 45.5 percent to 37.5 percent.

The poll surveyed 893 likely voters on May 21 and has a margin of error of 3.8 percent.

Newsom was polled against the potential Republican candidates as well, still leading every hypothetical matchup. Versus Vance, he has 45.1 percent compared to 38.6 percent. He leads Rubio 45.9 percent to 39.1 percent and versus Cruz, he’s ahead 44.4 percent to 39.4 percent.

2028 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Kamala Harris: 47%
JD Vance: 39%

Kamala Harris: 47%
Marco Rubio: 39%
——
Net Favs
Harris: +10
Rubio: -5
Vance: -12@TPSIOfficial | 893 LV | 5/21https://t.co/ZWJb6g5jtUpic.twitter.com/vscQpISpS0

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) May 22, 2026

Vance was recently asked about running on a potential ticket with Rubio by Newsweek during a White House news conference earlier this month. Responding to President Donald Trump calling the pair a “dream team,” Vance said that Americans would likely unfavorably view “someone who’s barely been in one office for a year and a half angling for a job two and a half years down the road,” adding, “There are few topics I want to talk about less.”

Ocasio-Cortez was also recently asked about a potential 2028 bid by David Axelrod, former adviser to ex-President Barack Obama. The New York lawmaker said in part that she does not want to make decisions as a lawmaker with the idea of one day becoming a senator or president weighing in the back of her mind. “My ambition is to change this country. Presidents come and go. Senate, House seats, elected officials come and go. But single-payer healthcare is forever. A living wage is forever, workers’ rights are forever, women’s rights, all of that, and so anyways … to a finer point to your question is that when you aren’t attached, right, when you haven’t been like fantasizing about being this or that since the time you were 7 years old, um, it is tremendously liberating.”

What 2028 Polls Show​


A poll from Echelon Insights last month shows Harris has 22 percent of the potential vote compared to Newsom’s 21 percent, Buttigieg’s 12 percent and Ocasio-Cortez’s 10 percent. Another 10 percent of respondents are unsure.

On the Republican side, the poll shows Vance with 42 percent of the vote compared to Rubio’s 14 percent, Donald Trump Jr.’s 10 percent and DeSantis’ 8 percent. The survey notes that 13 percent are unsure.

The poll surveyed 1,012 voters in the likely electorate from April 17 to 20, and has a 3.5 percent margin of error.

A Harvard/Harris poll taken from April 23 to April 26 shows Harris with 50 percent of Democrats‘ support, leading by a hefty margin. Newsom followed her with 22 percent, then Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro with 9 percent. Ocasio-Cortez landed 8 percent and Illinois Governor JB Pritzker received 6 percent.

The survey polled 2,745 registered voters with a margin of error of 1.87 percent. Not all potential 2028 candidates were included in the survey, like Buttigieg and Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear.


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