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In the modern NFL, play-callers are constantly walking a tightrope between traditional football wisdom and modern data-driven analytics. And, according to NFL analyst Ryan Paganetti, one of the most common overcorrections coaches make occurs on second down when they opt to run the football on 2nd-and-10 immediately after an incomplete pass on first down.
However, Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay has consistently refused to fall into that trap. Charting from Paganetti using Fantasy Points Data and nflfastR reveals that the Rams have been one of the most pass-heavy teams in the league when facing 2nd-and-10 after a first-down incompletion.
Paganetti’s data, which tracks regular-season and playoff performance for 2026 play callers from 2022 through 2025, shows McVay ranking fourth in the NFL with a 72.9% pass rate in these exact situations. Across 73 games, McVay faced this scenario 192 times, dialing up 140 pass calls compared to just 52 runs.
The analytics heavily back up McVay’s stubbornness. Paganetti notes that league-wide, since 2022, choosing to throw the ball in this specific spot has yielded a +16.6 percentage point advantage in success rate versus running the ball. It also generated an additional +0.23 Expected Points Added (EPA) per play and a resulting +6.5 percentage point increase in the eventual series success rate.
This unwavering aerial aggression has been a core philosophy for McVay ever since he took over the Rams in 2017. While many coaches get conservative to avoid a potential third-and-long, McVay treats 2nd-and-10 as another opportunity to generate an explosive chunk play. It is a formula that helped the Rams field the NFL's most productive overall offense during the 2025 season.
Unsurprisingly, McVay's disciples are littered throughout the top 10 of this list. Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive coordinator Zack Robinson (82.9% pass rate), who served under McVay in Los Angeles, finished first, while Cincinnati Bengals head coach Zac Taylor, the Rams' former quarterbacks coach, ranked third on the list just ahead of his former boss in L.A. Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Liam Coen, who was once McVay's offensive coordinator with the Rams, came in at No. 9.
This article originally appeared on Rams Wire: How Sean McVay handles 2nd-and-10 keeps Rams ahead of the chains
Continue reading...
However, Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay has consistently refused to fall into that trap. Charting from Paganetti using Fantasy Points Data and nflfastR reveals that the Rams have been one of the most pass-heavy teams in the league when facing 2nd-and-10 after a first-down incompletion.
Paganetti’s data, which tracks regular-season and playoff performance for 2026 play callers from 2022 through 2025, shows McVay ranking fourth in the NFL with a 72.9% pass rate in these exact situations. Across 73 games, McVay faced this scenario 192 times, dialing up 140 pass calls compared to just 52 runs.
The analytics heavily back up McVay’s stubbornness. Paganetti notes that league-wide, since 2022, choosing to throw the ball in this specific spot has yielded a +16.6 percentage point advantage in success rate versus running the ball. It also generated an additional +0.23 Expected Points Added (EPA) per play and a resulting +6.5 percentage point increase in the eventual series success rate.
This unwavering aerial aggression has been a core philosophy for McVay ever since he took over the Rams in 2017. While many coaches get conservative to avoid a potential third-and-long, McVay treats 2nd-and-10 as another opportunity to generate an explosive chunk play. It is a formula that helped the Rams field the NFL's most productive overall offense during the 2025 season.
Unsurprisingly, McVay's disciples are littered throughout the top 10 of this list. Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive coordinator Zack Robinson (82.9% pass rate), who served under McVay in Los Angeles, finished first, while Cincinnati Bengals head coach Zac Taylor, the Rams' former quarterbacks coach, ranked third on the list just ahead of his former boss in L.A. Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Liam Coen, who was once McVay's offensive coordinator with the Rams, came in at No. 9.
This article originally appeared on Rams Wire: How Sean McVay handles 2nd-and-10 keeps Rams ahead of the chains
Continue reading...
