Going to Churchill Downs before the Kentucky Derby? Take a rain jacket

[ASFN Admin]

The 152nd Kentucky Derby is Saturday, May 2, and folks in Louisville are anxious to see if the weather will cooperate at Churchill Downs.

Here's what we know about rain chances at this year's race.

Kentucky Derby 2026 weather forecast​

As of Monday, April 27, meteorologists with the National Weather Service in Louisville predict mostly sunny skies with a high near 65. The low is forecast at 41.

Weather forecast for Louisville, Kentucky, April 27 - May 2, 2026​

The extended weather forecast for Louisville, Kentucky, is as follows:

Monday, April 27, Dawn at the Downs: A 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Increasing clouds, with a high near 83. Winds could gust as high as 26 mph. Some storms in the evening could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 64. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

️️ Tuesday, April 28, 502sDay: A slight chance of showers. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 79. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Low around 61. Chance of precipitation in the evening is 100%.

️ Wednesday, April 29, Winsday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 69. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Partly cloudy, with a low around 45.

Thursday, April 30, Thurby: Sunny, with a high near 66 and a low around 46.

️ Friday, May 1, Kentucky Oaks: A 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 p.m. Partly sunny, with a high near 65 and a low around 41.

️ Saturday, May 2, Kentucky Derby: Mostly sunny, with a high near 65 and a low around 41.

Story continues after photo gallery.

How often does it rain on Kentucky Derby Day?​

Out of 151 Kentucky Derbies, 73 have experienced rain at some point during the day — that's 48%, according to historical records maintained by the National Weather Service. The wettest day on record happened May 5, 2018, when 3.15 inches of precipitation fell in Louisville.

What was the 2025 Kentucky Derby weather?​

Sovereignty won the 151st Run for the Roses on a sloppy track after 0.37 inches of rain fell on Churchill Downs last year. It ended a five-year streak of Derby horses running on a fast track. The high of the cloudy day was 65 degrees.

Live weather radar for Louisville, Kentucky​

Louisville Courier Journal reporter Alexis Cubit contributed.

John Tufts covers trending news for IndyStar and Midwest Connect. Send him a news tip at [email protected]. Find him on BlueSky at JohnWritesStuff.

This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Kentucky Derby 2026 weather forecast as of April 27. Will it rain?

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