FIFA may expand the World Cup again. The math looks different now.

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For the first time in nearly 30 years, FIFA expanded the number of teams for the World Cup’s final tournament in 2026.

Now it might do it again.

FIFA president Gianni Infantino indicated in an interview with Swiss broadcaster Blue Sport that a second straight expansion for the World Cup may happen in 2030.

Such an expansion would up the field for the World Cup final tournament from 48 teams to 64. This year’s tournament was an increase from 32 teams to 48.

A 64-team tournament would be four times, or 300% higher, than the 1978 tournament, which had 16 teams.

That comes even though the number of World Cup qualifier entrants has hovered around 200 since 2002 — about 90% higher than in 1978.

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The pace of the World Cup final tournament’s expansion from 16 teams in 1978 to 32 teams in 1998 generally held in line with the increase of initial entrants into the qualifying field.

The 1978 tournament had 109 initial entrants, including teams that entered qualifying and automatic qualifiers. The 2002 tournament was the first to top 200.

Such an increase is roughly equivalent to the 100% increase the final tournament saw from 1978 to 2002.

If the final tournament jumps from 48 to 64, it will continue a trend of increasing the finals tournament despite no increase in teams participating in qualifying — FIFA currently has 211 member associations, and if they all competed in qualifying for 2030, it would only increase the initial field by one.

It also means that roughly 30% of qualifier participants would make the final tournament. By comparison, 23% of qualifying participants made the 2026 final tournament, while 15% made it in 2022.

Expansion isn’t unanimously supported in world soccer.

The president of Europe’s governing soccer body, UEFA, Aleksander Ceferin said in June that the 48-team tournament had “a huge number of matches that are completely uninteresting.” He previously said that a 64-team tournament would be “a bad idea.”

Former Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp has also previously weighed in on the topic of World Cup expansion, saying that it “puts the game in danger.” Klopp is in final talks to coach the German national team.

The debate will continue as FIFA organizes the 2030 tournament — and surely won’t stop even once FIFA sets the final tournament size.

Methodology: World Cup entrant totals are from FIFA records and USA TODAY analysis. Entrants include teams that entered World Cup qualifying and automatic qualifiers. The 1978-2010 figures are based on a FIFA fact sheet detailing qualifying competitions. For 2014 and 2018, USA TODAY used FIFA statistical kit. FIFA’s 2021 annual report was used for 2022. The 2026 total was calculated from FIFA releases on confederation qualifying draws.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: FIFA may expand the World Cup again. The math looks different now.


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