Despite average win projections, Indianapolis Colts' strength of schedule offers hope

[ASFN Admin]

Though the Indianapolis Colts have middling expectations, they have an opportunity to make a playoff run.

Sharp Football Analysis breaks down NFL schedule strengths for the coming season, placing the Colts with the ninth-easiest. That may give them a better chance to reach the postseason, even though Las Vegas sportsbooks largely put their projected win total at 8.5.

The Vegas projections make sense, considering they went 9-8 in 2023 and 8-9 the previous two seasons.

How Sharp Football Analysis rates NFL strength of schedule​

Sharp notes that basing the coming season's schedule strength on the previous season's record is unreliable, and that taking into account offseason changes in personnel, coaches and injury status more accurately reflects a team's projected record and schedule strength. Sportsbooks, Sharp said, use that method.

Sharp adds that luck — such as tipped passes that result in interceptions and fumbles — that played into a team's previous season cannot be forecasted into the coming season's projection.

Why is this important? In 2025, just two of eight teams with the toughest schedules, according to Sharp, made the playoffs (Houston Texans, Los Angeles Rams). That list included the Minnesota Vikings and the Kansas City Chiefs.

2026 NFL strength of schedule, according to Warren Sharp, with projected win totals, according to Las Vegas sportsbooks​

According to Sharp's schedule analysis and Las Vegas win projections, the Detroit Lions, Baltimore Ravens, Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs should plan on playing deep into January. On the other end, the Miami Dolphins and Arizona Cardinals have little hope.

1. Detroit Lions, 10.5
2. New Orleans Saints, 7.5
3. Cincinnati Bengals, 9.5
4. Cleveland Browns, 6.5
5. New York Jets, 5.5
6. Baltimore Ravens, 11.5
7. Philadelphia Eagles, 10.5
8. San Francisco 49ers, 10.5
9. Indianapolis Colts, 8.5
10. Kansas City Chiefs, 10.5
11. Denver Broncos, 9.5
12. New England Patriots, 9.5
13. Tennessee Titans, 6.5
14. Buffalo Bills, 10.5
15. Jacksonville Jaguars, 9.5
16. Minnesota Vikings, 8.5
17. Green Bay Packers, 10.5
18. Pittsburgh Steelers, 8.5
19. Las Vegas Raiders, 5.5
20. Atlanta Falcons, 7.5
21. Los Angeles Chargers, 10.5
22. Seattle Seahawks, 10.5
23. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 8.5
24. New York Giants, 7.5
25. Washington Commanders, 7.5
26. Houston Texans, 9.5
27. Chicago Bears, 9.5
28. Los Angeles Rams, 11.5
29. Dallas Cowboys, 8.5
30. Carolina Panthers, 6.5
31. Miami Dolphins, 4.5
32. Arizona Cardinals, 4.5

Joel A. Erickson and Nathan Brown cover the Colts all season. Get more coverage on IndyStarTV and with the Colts Insider newsletter.

This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Indianapolis Colts schedule strength, wins projections for 2026

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