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Detroit Tigers pitcher Casey Mize (12) celebrates a double play against Los Angeles Angels during the first inning at Comerica Park in Detroit on Wednesday, May 27, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
The San Diego Padres decided to make a move at the trade deadline. Mere minutes before the 6:00 p.m. ET wall hit, the Padres agreed to a deal with the Detroit Tigers to acquire Casey Mize. The starting pitcher will now join the San Diego rotation in hopes of making a playoff push. What does it mean for Mize? Let's find out.
Fantasy Baseball Impact
As has been reiterated often in our trade impact analysis, pitchers are largely affected by three key factors. Those are: run support, bullpen support, and park factors. Here is how Mize's former Tigers team compares to his brand new Padres squad.
| Tigers | Padres | |
|---|---|---|
| Team wRC+ | 104 | 95 |
| Team Bullpen WAR | +1.2 | +6.0 (1st in MLB) |
| Home Park Factor | 100 | 97 (Pitchers Park) |
The biggest knock on Mize will be on support. The Padres rank among the bottom 10 offenses in the MLB, per wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus).
In Mize's 16 games started in 2026, he has a 2.70 ERA on a middling 99-rated Pitching+. Despite a strong ERA, Mize has managed just a record of 4 wins and 6 losses. Mize will continue to bring most of his value through his strong ERA. He does not offer much win upside, nor does he strike out many batters, with a sub-9.0 K/9 rate.
Now, can the Padres offset their poor batting? Yes, they can. They have the MLB's top-rated bullpen. They also have the MLB's top-rated closer in Mason Miller. In games in which Mize can go 6 innings plus, he will have a strong bullpen lined up behind him.
Mize also moderately benefits in his new home ballpark. While this accounts for only half of his games, Petco Park allows 3% fewer runs per game than any other ballpark, and the same is true compared to Comerica Park.
The net gain for Mize is not massive. However, it is a net gain. The new Padres starting pitcher has only ranked as about the P79 in fantasy baseball. He is a viable fantasy baseball starter, but he will lack a high ceiling. This is a utility player aimed to get you by the week. Mize is not a sell candidate in fantasy baseball.
The deal was made with the details below, rated as "fair" by @BaseballValues on X. Mize is projected to pitch 3rd in the Padres' rotation, ahead of German Marquez and Walker Buehler.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com/onsi/fantasy as Casey Mize Aims for Better Fantasy Baseball Output After Being Traded to Padres.
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