Best case, worst case scenarios for Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament

[ASFN Admin]

You must be registered for see images attach

WEST LAFAYETTE, INDIANA - FEBRUARY 17: Yaxel Lendeborg #23 of the Michigan Wolverines dribbles against Fletcher Loyer #2 of the Purdue Boilermakers at Mackey Arena on February 17, 2026 in West Lafayette, Indiana. (Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images) | Getty Images

We’re a week away from the Big Ten Tournament, where the Michigan Wolverines have already staked claim to the No. 1 seed after sealing a conference championship in last week’s win at Illinois. The rest of the Big Ten still has quite a bit of ironing out to do this week, with a wide range of possibilities for Michigan’s path to being crowned Big Ten Tournament champs.

Along with Michigan, there are five Big Ten teams that have an average ranking of inside the Top-30 across NET, KenPom and the ESPN BPI — Illinois, Purdue, Michigan State, Nebraska and Wisconsin. There are scenarios where Michigan’s path could include up to three of those other six teams. In other situations, they may have to only play one.

Today, we’ll take a look at the nightmare scenario, the easiest path, and the most likely situation the Wolverines can find themselves for the Big Ten Tournament. In each situation, we’ll assume the highest-ranked seed wins each game.

*This article was written before Tuesday’s Big Ten action including Oregon vs No. 11 Illinois and No. 9 Nebraska vs UCLA.

Nightmare Scenario​

• Quarterfinal: vs 8-seed Purdue Boilermakers
• Semifinal: vs 4-seed Illinois Fighting Illini
• Championship: vs 2-seed Nebraska Cornhuskers or 3-seed Michigan State Spartans

There is a world where the once-No. 1 team in the country winds up the No. 8 seed in the Big Ten Tournament. Due to their untimely loss to Ohio State, the Boilermakers have lost six of their last 11 games. They wrap their season at Northwestern, a team fighting for a spot in the Big Ten Tournament, and then at home against Wisconsin. If they lose both, Purdue would likely be the first team Michigan sees in Chicago.

Assuming a win, they’d face the 4-seeded Fighting Illini, looking for revenge off a poor performance at home. Illinois’s final two games are vs Oregon and at Maryland, two of the three teams not expected to make the Big Ten Tournament. They’re most likely situation is to be slotted into this No. 4 seed, with a ceiling of being the No. 2 seed.

Then, in the championship, Michigan would face either Nebraska or Michigan State. In this scenario, Michigan would have to go through three of the top-15 teams in the country according to current KenPom, NET, and ESPN BPI rankings. It’d be a battle of facing either a Nebraska team that was within three points of the Wolverines in Ann Arbor without their two best players, or a rivalry rematch with the Spartans. Either way, this is the worst possible situation for the Wolverines.

Easiest Path​

• Quarterfinal: vs 8-seed Ohio State Buckeyes
• Semifinal: vs 4-seed UCLA Bruins
• Championship: vs 2-seed Nebraska Cornhuskers

This one is in play if UCLA beats Nebraska on Tuesday night (editor’s note: the Bruins won!), but it would also need Wisconsin and Illinois to go 0-2 and to at least tie with Purdue, who they hold a tiebreaker over. But we did say creating the easiest path, so we’ll run with it.

Ohio State is the most likely No. 8 seed along with the Iowa Hawkeyes, who Michigan faces on Thursday. Assuming a Wolverines’ win, the Buckeyes control their own destiny for the No. 8 seed. Michigan walloped Ohio State to the tune of 20 points in their last contest in Columbus; they’d be the heavy favorites.

Then, Michigan would go on to face that UCLA squad. The Wolverines beat UCLA by 30 in their one matchup this season, allowing just 18 second-half points in a lopsided affair.

In the championship, they’d face the most likely No. 2 seed Nebraska.

The Most Likely Scenario​

• Quarterfinal: vs 8-seed Ohio State Buckeyes
• Semifinal: vs 4-seed Illinois Fighting Illini
• Championship: vs 2-seed Nebraska Cornhuskers

Ohio State has to finish 2-0 and stay one game ahead of Iowa to seal the No. 8 seed or better. Battles with Penn State and Indiana loom, while Iowa still has to go through Michigan and Nebraska. I like Ohio State’s chances of clipping the Hawkeyes and earning the higher seed.

Next would be the Fighting Illini. As mentioned earlier, they have a rather easy finish to the regular season, and Michigan State holds the tiebreaker after beating Illinois by three. That means the Spartans would have to lose to both Rutgers and at Michigan for the Illini to jump them.

To wrap, Michigan would face the No. 2 Nebraska Cornhuskers in the championship, just like all other situations above.

Who could finish where?​

• No. 8 seed: Ohio State, Iowa, Purdue
• No. 4 seed: Illinois, Purdue, Wisconsin, UCLA, Nebraska, Michigan State
• No. 2 seed: Nebraska, Illinois, Michigan State
  • Nebraska with 2-0 finish OR tie with Michigan State at 15-5
  • Michigan State with 2-0 finish AND 0-2 Nebraska finish
  • Illinois goes 2-0 AND Michigan State AND Nebraska finish 0-2

What do you think of these scenarios? Let us know down in the comments!

Continue reading...