- Joined
- May 8, 2002
- Posts
- 1,149,954
- Reaction score
- 59
MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at UFC Fight Night 278's main event between Belal Muhammad and Gabriel Bonfim.
Staple info:
Supplemental info:
Staple info:
Supplemental info:
The main event in the Apex features a showdown between ranked welterweights Belal Muhammad and Gabriel Bonfim.
Despite being an orthodox-stance striker who isn't shy about throwing power from the rear, Muhammad has done a deceptively good job of developing his lead hand in recent years.
Half-stepping his way into space off of a prodding jab, Muhammad makes hay off of multiple looks that range from building right crosses to the body to levering hooks off of his straight shots. The 14-year pro also has been much sneakier about shifting his stance mid-combination, showing the ability to attack or counter off of brief southpaw shifts.
Muhammad is content to continually punish his opponents' legs from a distance when he needs to, but is not averse to taking damage to his own lower extremities due to his propensity to stay heavy on his lead leg.
Enter Bonfim.
Although Bonfim's submissions stand out on paper, the Brazilian comes from a boxing background and can comport himself fairly well on the feet. From a solid and stiff jab to his underrated kicking arsenal, Bonfim has steadily developed into a well-rounded offensive threat.
Coming from the same camp as Vicente Luque, Bonfim also has a knack for timing cracking left hooks (which are worth watching for in this fight). Bonfim's bodywork and leg kicks will likely also serve him well against his Palestinian-American counterpart, but he'll need to be mindful of his linear retreats.
Considering the on-paper path of least resistance against an explosive fighter like Bonfim, no one should be shocked if Muhammad enacts the age-old championship-level tradition at welterweight by wrestling to secure success.
Coming from a wrestling base where he was coached by PFL standout Louis Taylor, Muhammad is no stranger when it comes to stringing takedowns into his offensive repertoire. Whether he is chaining off of singles in the open or changing his level for doubles against the fence, Muhammad offers solid takedown threats that his opposition needs to respect.
Muhammad is also good at chaining his way into clinching scenarios, which could make things interesting given each fighter's strengths.
Not only is Muhammad a decent shot wrestler, but the Palestinian-American works well from the body lock, showing a knack for shucking by his opponents and encouraging back exposure through his mat returns. Thankfully for Bonfim, he's more than familiar with fighting within closed quarters.
A Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt who is not shy about going for submissions, Bonfim has steadily been strengthening the wrestling portion of his game. Bonfim can still hit athletic reactionary shots in the open, but the 28-year-old typically does his best work with chaining attempts from the clinch.
Even if he's working along the fence, Bonfim is good about using leg play to help him shuck by and get an advantageous angle on his opponent.
From hip bumps to Polish throw variations, Bonfim appears to be strong once he gets in on the hips. And once Bonfim grounds his foes, "Marretinha" is quick to advance to potentially fight-ending positions. However, from a defensive perspective, Bonfim – despite showing improved under and overhook awareness – is still hardwired to drop back from his patented guillotine choke at times.
Muhammad may not be a "game over" level of submission grappler, but he’s also not the type of fighter you want to give positional advantages.
The oddsmakers and the public slightly favor the former champion, listing Muhammad -130 and Bonfim +102 via FanDuel.
Considering the potential crossroads trajectory of both fighters, it makes sense that the betting lines are staying this close.
Muhammad deserves respect as the favorite, but there's no denying the turbulent weather of leg kicks and guillotine chokes that he'll have to navigate if he wants to get into Bonfim's proverbial kitchen. And given the disproportionate amount of left-sided strikes Muhammad has eaten throughout his UFC career, Bonfim's left hook will also be extra lively in exchanges.
That said, I believe that the fighting terrain of the Apex's smaller octagon will favor the more tenured fighter in Muhammad.
Aside from having a style that's built to both win and eat up minutes, Muhammad is also equipped with the insane durability that's needed to support that pressure he likes to bring. Moreover, Bonfim, in victory or defeat, has shown a propensity to tire as fights go on (which I imagine Muhammad, with his superior stamina, is salivating over).
A Bonfim stoppage wouldn’t shock me, but I'll officially side with Muhammad to survive the early storms and punish Bonfim's linear retreats en route to pulling away down the stretch for a competitive but clear win on the scorecards.
Prediction: Muhammad by decision
As the main event, Muhammad and Bonfim are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 10:05 p.m. ET. The fight streams on Paramount+.
This article originally appeared on MMA Junkie: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim pick, odds, time: UFC Vegas 118
Continue reading...
Belal Muhammad UFC Fight Night 278 preview
You must be registered for see images attach
Staple info:
- Record: 24-5 MMA, 15-5 UFC
- Height: 5'10" Age: 37 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 72"
- Last fight: Decision loss to Ian Gary (Nov. 22, 2025)
- Camp: Chicago Fight Team/VFS Academy (Chicago)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Excellent
Supplemental info:
- + UFC welterweight champion
- + Titan FC welterweight title
- + Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt
- + Wrestling base
- + 4 KO victories
- + 1 submission win
- + 1 first-round finish
- + Consistent pace and pressure
- + Solid feints and footwork
- + Good combination striker
- ^ Shifts stances/variates to the body
- + Hard leg kicks
- + Strong inside the clinch
- + Serviceable takedown threats
- ^ In the open or against the fence
- + Good transitional grappler
- +/- 4-1-1 in the UFC Apex
Gabriel Bonfim UFC Fight Night 278 preview
You must be registered for see images attach
Staple info:
- Record: 19-1 MMA, 6-1 UFC
- Height: 6'0" Age: 28 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 72.5"
- Last fight: TKO win over Randy Brown (Nov. 8, 2025)
- Camp: Bonfim Brothers (Brazil)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
- + LFA welterweight title
- + Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
- + National Brazilian boxing champion
- + 4 KO victories
- + 13 submission wins
- + 8 first-round finishes
- + KO power
- + Improved pace management
- + Solid lead hand
- ^ Accurate jabs and hooks
- + Hard leg kicks
- + Strong inside the clinch
- + Solid takedown ability
- ^ In the open or against the fence
- + Good scrambler
- ^ Dangerous submission acumen
- +/- 3-0 in the UFC Apex (4-0 including DWCS)
Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim point of interest: Striking in the small cage
The main event in the Apex features a showdown between ranked welterweights Belal Muhammad and Gabriel Bonfim.
Despite being an orthodox-stance striker who isn't shy about throwing power from the rear, Muhammad has done a deceptively good job of developing his lead hand in recent years.
Half-stepping his way into space off of a prodding jab, Muhammad makes hay off of multiple looks that range from building right crosses to the body to levering hooks off of his straight shots. The 14-year pro also has been much sneakier about shifting his stance mid-combination, showing the ability to attack or counter off of brief southpaw shifts.
Muhammad is content to continually punish his opponents' legs from a distance when he needs to, but is not averse to taking damage to his own lower extremities due to his propensity to stay heavy on his lead leg.
Enter Bonfim.
Although Bonfim's submissions stand out on paper, the Brazilian comes from a boxing background and can comport himself fairly well on the feet. From a solid and stiff jab to his underrated kicking arsenal, Bonfim has steadily developed into a well-rounded offensive threat.
Coming from the same camp as Vicente Luque, Bonfim also has a knack for timing cracking left hooks (which are worth watching for in this fight). Bonfim's bodywork and leg kicks will likely also serve him well against his Palestinian-American counterpart, but he'll need to be mindful of his linear retreats.
Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim point of interest: Potential grappling threats
You must be registered for see images
Considering the on-paper path of least resistance against an explosive fighter like Bonfim, no one should be shocked if Muhammad enacts the age-old championship-level tradition at welterweight by wrestling to secure success.
Coming from a wrestling base where he was coached by PFL standout Louis Taylor, Muhammad is no stranger when it comes to stringing takedowns into his offensive repertoire. Whether he is chaining off of singles in the open or changing his level for doubles against the fence, Muhammad offers solid takedown threats that his opposition needs to respect.
Muhammad is also good at chaining his way into clinching scenarios, which could make things interesting given each fighter's strengths.
Not only is Muhammad a decent shot wrestler, but the Palestinian-American works well from the body lock, showing a knack for shucking by his opponents and encouraging back exposure through his mat returns. Thankfully for Bonfim, he's more than familiar with fighting within closed quarters.
A Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt who is not shy about going for submissions, Bonfim has steadily been strengthening the wrestling portion of his game. Bonfim can still hit athletic reactionary shots in the open, but the 28-year-old typically does his best work with chaining attempts from the clinch.
Even if he's working along the fence, Bonfim is good about using leg play to help him shuck by and get an advantageous angle on his opponent.
From hip bumps to Polish throw variations, Bonfim appears to be strong once he gets in on the hips. And once Bonfim grounds his foes, "Marretinha" is quick to advance to potentially fight-ending positions. However, from a defensive perspective, Bonfim – despite showing improved under and overhook awareness – is still hardwired to drop back from his patented guillotine choke at times.
Muhammad may not be a "game over" level of submission grappler, but he’s also not the type of fighter you want to give positional advantages.
Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim odds
The oddsmakers and the public slightly favor the former champion, listing Muhammad -130 and Bonfim +102 via FanDuel.
Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim prediction, pick
You must be registered for see images attach
Considering the potential crossroads trajectory of both fighters, it makes sense that the betting lines are staying this close.
Muhammad deserves respect as the favorite, but there's no denying the turbulent weather of leg kicks and guillotine chokes that he'll have to navigate if he wants to get into Bonfim's proverbial kitchen. And given the disproportionate amount of left-sided strikes Muhammad has eaten throughout his UFC career, Bonfim's left hook will also be extra lively in exchanges.
That said, I believe that the fighting terrain of the Apex's smaller octagon will favor the more tenured fighter in Muhammad.
Aside from having a style that's built to both win and eat up minutes, Muhammad is also equipped with the insane durability that's needed to support that pressure he likes to bring. Moreover, Bonfim, in victory or defeat, has shown a propensity to tire as fights go on (which I imagine Muhammad, with his superior stamina, is salivating over).
A Bonfim stoppage wouldn’t shock me, but I'll officially side with Muhammad to survive the early storms and punish Bonfim's linear retreats en route to pulling away down the stretch for a competitive but clear win on the scorecards.
Prediction: Muhammad by decision
Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo start time, how to watch
As the main event, Muhammad and Bonfim are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 10:05 p.m. ET. The fight streams on Paramount+.
This article originally appeared on MMA Junkie: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim pick, odds, time: UFC Vegas 118
Continue reading...
