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BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS - MAY 02: Ceddanne Rafaela #3 of the Boston Red Sox tosses his bat after striking out against the Houston Astros at Fenway Park on May 02, 2026 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Jaiden Tripi/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The sequence that most perfectly encapsulates today’s loss to the Astros began in the bottom of the third inning. Willson Contreras was at the plate with the bases loaded and just one out; Astros’ starter Spencer Arrighetti was teetering and had just walked the previous two men, and there was more lumber lurking on deck with Roman Anthony and Wilyer Abreu due up next. The Red Sox were down 1-0, but it very much felt like they were about to take control of the game.
I remember thinking to myself in this moment “Boy, after that three hit game last night, it feels like Roman Anthony’s really about to turn the corner. Now he’s gonna get a golden opportunity to build on that momentum against a struggling starter with either a chance to take the lead or put the Sox already ahead.”
Instead, by the time Anthony came to the plate, the Sox were down 5-0 in the bottom of the next inning.
The deadly combination of events came as follows:
First, Willson Contreras hit into this brutally costly double play to ruin the third inning threat:
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Then Brice Matthews hit this three run bomb off Connelly Early in the top of the fourth:
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That wasn’t quite the ballgame, but it sure felt like it. The Red Sox are now 0-17 when they fall behind by at least two runs at any point in the game, and this lineup just proves relentlessly incapable of changing that stat.
Today was actually a perfect example of what that’s the case. There were plenty of other chances for the Red Sox to get back in the thing and mount a comeback, but time and time again they lacked the big hit when they really needed it. They had several opportunities to the tune of eight hits and seven walks, but not a single one of those hits went for extra bases, and the team went just 2-9 with runner in scoring position (zero of which came when the deficit was within three runs).
The Astros meanwhile had three extra base hits in just the fourth inning alone (the biggest frame of the game for either team), and that really was the difference in this tussle. The Astros lineup leads the American League in batting average, they lead the league RBI, they lead the league in OPS, and they lead the league in wRC+. The reason they have an even worse record than the Red Sox is because their pitching staff has fallen apart like a piece of single-ply toilet paper.
And along those lines, I can’t underscore enough how much this Astros pitching staff sucks and how much the Red Sox offense sucks even more. In the five games Houston has played against Boston this year, they’ve held the Sox to 4 runs or less every single time. But in the other 29 games, the Astros opponents have scored 5 or more runs 22 times. Ironing that out more, the Red Sox have averaged 2.60 runs per game in their five slates against the 2026Astros, and everybody else has averaged 6.45 runs per game in the other 29 contests. This lineup is beyond disgraceful!
Three Studs
Roman Anthony: After three hits last night, Roman Anthony was on base three more times today with a hit and two walks. Also, the hit was a liner the other way into the left field corner, so it was nice to see Anthony smack a free strike teams have been getting against him on the outer third of the plate.
Wilyer Abreu: On base four times with two hits and two walks, and the only Red Sox player with a multi hit game.
The bullpen: Ryan Watson and Tyler Samaniego probably wouldn’t tell you it was their best day on the mound, but together them combined for five innings of one run baseball that base kept the team in today’s game and saved all the high leverage relievers for a potential series win tomorrow.
Three Duds
Willson Contreras: That third inning double play was the backbreaker that set the table for the rest of the game. If he gets a hit or a walk in that spot, the Red Sox probably win the game.
Trevor Story: Hit into a costly double play in the second inning and then had a costly strikeout with nobody out in the fourth after the first two batters walked.
Connelly Early: The was the worst outing of Connelly Early’s career so far. Four runs allowed in four innings and gave up plenty of hard contact.
Play of the game:
One of the many frustrating things about this Red Sox season in a long line of frustrating things is how high the overall percentage of great defensive plays made in center field have been by their opponents. The Red Sox are supposed to have a huge advantage here with Ceddanne Rafaela patrolling that part of the diamond, and for whatever reason he’s off to a slow start with the glove while just about every opponent coming into Fenway Park has made themselves right at home in one of the more difficult centerfields to play in all of baseball.
Anyways, it happened again today with Brice Matthews:
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