Arizona Diamondbacks: July confidence poll

[ASFN Admin]

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Well, I’m back. No more balmy 70 degree days and pleasing trips to look for bison and gaze at geysers. Wyoming was very pleasant, and I thoroughly enjoyed the disconnect for a few days. Many thanks to James and Justin for keeping things ticking over in my absence! Normal service is now being resumed…

June results​

When we checked in at the start of June, things were going pretty well in Diamondbacks land. They had posted a winning record for the month of May, and the +32 run differential was their best for a calendar month since July 2024. The battle for the wild-card was a tight one, with only 2.5 games covering fourth and eleventh in the National League standings. But Arizona were in a tie for the third spot, and it was the pitching staff who they had to thank for that, posting the third best ERA in the majors at 2.98. It was the first time since August of 2018 the D-backs had a collective ERA for the month below three – and that included Zac Gallen’s 7.04 figure.

Everything was looking good, and that definitely had an impact on fan confidence…

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In particular, the bottom of the poll looks a lot better. At the beginning of May, almost half of the votes (47%) came in at four or below. This month, that has largely evaporated, with only fourteen percent now falling into those categories. Instead, both six and seven basically doubled, going from 19% to 37%, and 9% to 23% respectively. The overall result was a bounceback month, improving by almost a full point, the average rating going from 4.78 to 5.71. It was the highest figure at this point since 2023, reflecting an overall record for the D-backs four games better than last year, and 5.5 games above the end of May 2024.

Below, you can see the breakdown for the past 12 polls’ results, followed by the line graph showing the trends over this and previous seasons.

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July poll​

The month of June, however…? The exact opposite run differential for Arizona, at -32, as the team ERA plummeted to 25th in the majors, at 4.90. The only pitcher with an ERA below two? Ildemaro Vargas. It was confirmed that Corbin Burnes will not be back as soon as hoped, and the same goes for A.J. Puk. The team continues to do well against weak opponents, an MLB-best 30-13 record against sides below .500. But against those at or above .500, they are the exact opposite there too: 13-30 is ahead only of the Rockies. It feels like the 2026 D-backs are defined largely by who they play.

How do you feel? That’s what the poll below is for. And, of course, tell us in the comments why you feel that way, especially if your opinion has changed from last month.

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