A Pertinent Article RE: Rebuilding

[ASUCHRIS]

While the current FO continues to propagate a ridiculous myth of "reloading" and getting back to elite in 1-2 years, I think many of us realize that it will only exacerbate our current situation.

As a counterpoint to this ridiculous theory, here's the OKC plan. Sadly, we certainly don't have Presti as an architect, so this all may be moot anyway.

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/7599274/nba-oklahoma-city-thunder-become-legit-nba-contender-thanks-analytics-espn-magazine

"That's the NBA's version of purgatory -- neither chasing a championship nor lousy enough to rebuild in earnest. There was little talented youth on hand but plenty of bloated salaries."

Sound familiar?

 

[Phrazbit]

"In the NBA there is no worse place than being in the middle of the pack. "

That is one of the random lines the announcers spout out in NBA 2k12... the announcer? Steve Kerr...

 

[JS22]

"In the NBA there is no worse place than being in the middle of the pack. "

That is one of the random lines the announcers spout out in NBA 2k12... the announcer? Steve Kerr...

I bet Kerr was forced out because he saw that this team was going to quickly become a .500 team and wanted to spend a few years starting from scratch.

Shame he was forced out so quickly.

 

[mojorizen7]

Steve Kerr put a wig and lipstick on, so he could catch one of the first lifeboats off of this sinking ship.

He was definately learning on the job and made some mistakes(one big one),but i felt he had us headed in the right direction in terms of trying to impliment a change in basketball culture. .It would've taken some time to do that though. Sarver likely felt that time wasn't something that meshed with the bottom line me thinks.

I'd be willing to bet my bottom dollar that if Kerr were still here(without Sarver's medling) that we wouldn't be debating over whether or not to trade Nash in 2012....he'd already be gone IMO.

 

[Covert Rain]

I bet Kerr was forced out because he saw that this team was going to quickly become a .500 team and wanted to spend a few years starting from scratch.

Shame he was forced out so quickly.

I don't think he was forced out at all. I think it's the opposite...he jumped ship when the huge iceberg punctured the hull. Kerr could have returned but Sarver and him didn't agree on many things including finances.

 

[mojorizen7]

LESSON 5: THE TOUGHEST MOVES CAN BE THE BEST ONES

Indeed.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Kerr wanted to resign Amare. When it was clear that it was not happening, he left. He also wanted raises for his staff, which Sarver refused.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Kerr wanted to resign Amare. When it was clear that it was not happening, he left. He also wanted raises for his staff, which Sarver refused.

it would be really interesting to know if this was really case re: amare. We'll probably never know EXACTLY what happened with Kerr.

 

[chickenhead]

Worth pointing out that the article is profiling a market much less of a "destination" than Phoenix. And yet if OKC had the cap room and the need to sign someone this off-season, many players who want to win would be interested.

They have also extended players early, heading off a situation where destinations come into play. Point being that if you put yourself in a position to draft high, follow-up by drafting well, and manage your roster effectively, you don't need to gnash your teeth about the superior marketing opportunities in New York, Los Angeles, and Miami.

10 years from now things may look different in OKC, and the market may come into play. But right now, the Suns could learn a lot from this article.

 

[JCSunsfan]

it would be really interesting to know if this was really case re: amare. We'll probably never know EXACTLY what happened with Kerr.

Didn't Kerr say that his number one priority that off-season was resigning Amare?

 

[ASUCHRIS]

Worth pointing out that the article is profiling a market much less of a "destination" than Phoenix. And yet if OKC had the cap room and the need to sign someone this off-season, many players who want to win would be interested.

They have also extended players early, heading off a situation where destinations come into play. Point being that if you put yourself in a position to draft high, follow-up by drafting well, and manage your roster effectively, you don't need to gnash your teeth about the superior marketing opportunities in New York, Los Angeles, and Miami.

10 years from now things may look different in OKC, and the market may come into play. But right now, the Suns could learn a lot from this article.

Exactly.

 

[elindholm]

The Thunder also had something like four top-six picks in a row, so it's not exactly an easy model to follow. You have to get really lucky, not only to get that high in the lottery but also to have quality players fall to you. Their getting Durant at #2 is only the most glaring example.

 

[JS22]

I don't think he was forced out at all. I think it's the opposite...he jumped ship when the huge iceberg punctured the hull. Kerr could have returned but Sarver and him didn't agree on many things including finances.

Which is pretty much the same thing IMO.

 

[Mainstreet]

Kerr wanted to resign Amare. When it was clear that it was not happening, he left. He also wanted raises for his staff, which Sarver refused.

I've always felt this to be true.

 

[devilalum]

One certainty about the Suns is that its going to get a LOT worse before we ever see the second round of the playoffs again.

They might sign enough help to get to the #7 or 8 seed in the next couple of years but no way they are relevant again any time soon.

 

[chickenhead]

The Thunder also had something like four top-six picks in a row, so it's not exactly an easy model to follow. You have to get really lucky, not only to get that high in the lottery but also to have quality players fall to you. Their getting Durant at #2 is only the most glaring example.

Definitely true. In consecutive years the Sonics/Thunder drafted Durant at #2, Westbrook at #4, and James Harden at #3. Even hitting on those kinds of picks isn't guaranteed.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

The Thunder also had something like four top-six picks in a row, so it's not exactly an easy model to follow. You have to get really lucky, not only to get that high in the lottery but also to have quality players fall to you. Their getting Durant at #2 is only the most glaring example.

I really can't envision any scenario where we'll attract a top free agent anytime soon, so our only real hope for relevance is to draft a couple young stars.

What alternative do we have? Let a couple of 38 year olds dictate every move we make, dooming us to less than mediocrity in both short term and long term?

 

[elindholm]

I really can't envision any scenario where we'll attract a top free agent anytime soon, so our only real hope for relevance is to draft a couple young stars.

I agree, that's the best way to try to get lucky. But it will still take a lot of luck.

What alternative do we have? Let a couple of 38 year olds dictate every move we make, dooming us to less than mediocrity in both short term and long term?

I'm not under the impression that Nash and Hill are "dictating" anything. They're on the team and they are among the better players, so they get minutes. Since it's obvious that the Suns don't have much in the way of young talent, someone has to actually take the floor. If the choice is between old guys who can play and young guys who can't, I'd just as soon see the old guys. Nash and Hill aren't holding anyone back, that's for sure.

Now if we start hearing reputable reports that the old guys are interfering with personnel decisions, that's different. But, as near as I can tell, all they're doing now is their job on the floor.

Re-signing Hill this summer was probably a mistake. I read somewhere that the Suns want him to have a relationship with the organization after he retires, so maybe they were investing in that future. And I have mixed feelings about what to do with Nash this summer, but I think the bottom line is that they Suns aren't going to attract any other top FA, so I'd rather be committed to Nash for a couple more years than (insert the name of the next Charlie Villanueva) for four.

 

[SunsTzu]

Definitely true. In consecutive years the Sonics/Thunder drafted Durant at #2, Westbrook at #4, and James Harden at #3. Even hitting on those kinds of picks isn't guaranteed.

Jeff Green agrees. They also hit on late round pick Ibaka(used with the pick the Suns gave in KT trade!) and were willing to wait on him.

I wouldn't hold my breath on the Suns implementing a strategy like the Thunder. Sure they could get lucky and get a few top picks but they seem more interested in guys that they consider NBA ready and wouldn't take a chance on a guy like Ibaka or let him develop overseas.

 

[slinslin]

Jeff Green was not a bust really.

 

[Griffin]

OKC is definitely a great lottery success story, but it took a lot of really bad seasons to get it done. A few other teams like Chicago also struck gold with very low odds. But, as they say, these results are not typical and should not be expected.

Here are just a few of the teams that have had plenty of lottery picks in the last decade and very little to show for it:

Minnesota Timberwolves

2011 #2 Derrick Williams
2010 #4 Wesley Johnson
2009 #5 Ricky Rubio
2009 #6 Jonny Flynn
2008 #5 Kevin Love (acquired for #3 OJ Mayo)
2007 #7 Corey Brewer
2006 #7 Randy Foye (acquired for #6 Brandon Roy)

Number of playoff appearances since 2004: 0
Current status: lottery

Toronto Raptors

2011 #5 Jonas Valenciunas
2009 #9 DeMar DeRozan
2007 #1 Andrea Bargnani
2005 #7 Charlie Villanueva
2004 #8 Rafael Araujo
2003 #4 Chris Bosh

Number of playoff appearances since 2002: 2 (2 first round exits)
Current status: lottery

Sacramento Kings

2011 #10 Jimmer Fredette (acquired for #7)
2010 #5 DeMarcus Cousins
2009 #4 Tyreke Evans
2008 #12 Jason Thompson
2007 #10 Spencer Hawes

Number of playoff appearances since 2006: 0
Current status: lottery

Golden State Warriors

2011 #11 Klay Thompson
2010 #6 Ekpe Udoh
2009 #7 Stephen Curry
2006 #9 Patrick O'Bryant
2005 #9 Ike Diogu
2004 #11 Andris Biedrins
2003 #11 Mikael Pietrus
2002 #3 Mike Dunleavy, Jr.

Number of playoff appearnces since 1994: 1
Current status: lottery

Charlotte Bobcats

2011 #9 Kemba Walker
2009 #12 Gerald Henderson
2008 #9 D.J. Augustin
2007 #8 (traded for Jason Richardson)
2006 #3 Adam Morrison
2005 #5 Raymond Felton
2005 #13 Sean May (acquired pick from Suns)
2004 #2 Emeka Okafor (acquired pick for #4)

Number of playoff appearancs since expansion: 1 (first round exit)
Current status: lottery

 

[slinslin]

Show us a list of teams that are successful right now witout their key players drafted high right now.

I mean Golden State is a perfect example of a team stuck in mediocrity. For 15 years now they are never bad enough to get that really high pick. One time they were at #3 and drafted Mike Dunleavy..

 

[Phrazbit]

Didn't Kerr say that his number one priority that off-season was resigning Amare?

I have heard multiple interviews where Kerr said signing Amare to a 5 year deal didnt make sense and that he, the trainers and the team doctors felt Amare didnt have more than a couple good years left.

He may have said resigning Amare was a priority before hand, but it was likely just lip service.

And... at this point its hard to claim resigning Amare would have been a good idea.

 

[JustWinBaby]

I have heard multiple interviews where Kerr said signing Amare to a 5 year deal didnt make sense and that he, the trainers and the team doctors felt Amare didnt have more than a couple good years left.

He may have said resigning Amare was a priority before hand, but it was likely just lip service.

And... at this point its hard to claim resigning Amare would have been a good idea.

Our success without Amare has been fantastic and our future is extremely bright. Is that what you are saying?

What a great move to lose an All Star for NOTHING, except for worse contracts and lesser players that cannot even make the playoffs. We win less and draw far fewer fans, just fantastic.

Using Kerr to confirm any good player moves is ludicrous. He quite possibly is the worst GM ever. Nice guy, very good commentator, horrible GM.

What good player decisions did he make, via trade or the draft?

He virtually single handidly broke up a consistent playoff contender and turned it into a lottery team, while acquiring virtually no future assets to work with.

On his watch we lost Marion, Shaq, KT, TT, Boris, Raja, LB, D'Antoni and now we can add Amare. I thought Amare all along was Sarver's choice. Oh yeah, he did draft Robin Lopez, DJ Strawberry, Alando Tucker, Earll Clark and Goran Dragic. Only Robin remains. If only Coach D would have played those guys more, maybe they would still be in the league. Whoops Clark is still in the league while getting 10 minutes and 2 points a night for Orlando. The new GM who will be responsible for our immediate future traded Dragic who we could really use at this point.

Will we make the playoffs prior to Amare's contract ending in New York?

If we do not, how can the decision not to sign him be a good one?

The decision not to resign Amare could turn out to be a very good one but at this point it just isn't.

We have not been better and do not have a better future, at this point, without him.

We have very few draft picks and are not a preferred destination for free agents. How exactly are we better off, without Amare. You and others keep trying to justify your belief that we are, with nothing to back it up, except the assumption that Amare will not play out his contract due to injury. You could be right, but at this point it just is not.

If you asked Nash, Hill and Gentry if they would like to have Amare around I expect they would say, hell yes.

Those are guys I would listen to. They actaully have to compete on a nightly basis.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

I'm not under the impression that Nash and Hill are "dictating" anything. They're on the team and they are among the better players, so they get minutes. Since it's obvious that the Suns don't have much in the way of young talent, someone has to actually take the floor. If the choice is between old guys who can play and young guys who can't, I'd just as soon see the old guys. Nash and Hill aren't holding anyone back, that's for sure.

Unfortunately, Nash's presence on the roster has a huge impact on both our draft prospects and our personnel both currently and in the near future. By keeping Nash, we artificially inflate our win total, and make our team in general look much better than it is without the reward of a top draft pick. In terms of total talent, we're a Nash injury away from being the 2nd least talented team in the NBA. With him, we're in purgatory, with no long term benefit and no decent young players developing.

Further, in terms of dictating things, Nash insists on running his offense, undoubtedly encouraged the re-signing of Hill, and will unquestionably push for the acquistion of free agent signings to win in the short term, which could definitely lead to overpaying on account of desperation. Additionally, as Mainstreet pointed out in another article:


Nash told the Associated Press that he "definitely would re-sign with the Suns," meaning he would consider the possibility after he becomes a free agent in the off-season.

But he said if the Suns do not want to pay his worth, they would be doing so "at their own peril."

On how much longer he will play, Nash said, "When people ask me, I just say I can play a couple more years. I could say three more years. Who knows? Maybe five. I think I could play a long time if I want to."

So not only are we going to be required to pay at least market value for a 38 year old on a gutted team, we're pretty much guaranteed to be in the exact same position in lieu of a miracle draft pick or free agent acquisition.

All so Steve can be "comfortable", as alluded to in another Coro article. "A Nash trade request would have to be because he was miserable. He despises the losing but he has a close friend, Hill, and top-notch athletic trainers who are as good for his body as they are his spirit. There are no guarantees he can find that elsewhere or that he will be placed in a system that allows him the ball control he has in Phoenix. We have seen how Nash looks trying to throw post-up passes to Shaquille O'Neal. Other systems could detract from what he does and how much he has the ball."

Nash is undoubtedly one of my favorite Suns ever, but he's holding the team hostage until he decides he's had enough. I just can't imagine the prospect of 9-12 talent in the West without getting premium lottery picks and dismal prospects for the future is that alluring to Suns fans. Even now you can see lots of folks dressed as empty seats for the games. The thought of this charade going on for 2+ more years is pretty discouraging.

, so I'd rather be committed to Nash for a couple more years than (insert the name of the next Charlie Villanueva) for four.

I really don't see it as an either or proposition, although I have no faith the FO won't turn it into that. The alternative would be to sign some players with potential or injury issues to shorter term deals until the right deal comes along, or we draft (and keep!) some young talent.