5 March Madness upset predictions, bracket-buster picks for 2026 tourney

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There's nothing quite like a first-round NCAA Tournament upset. With nonstop men's basketball games airing for the first two days of March Madness, it can be difficult to flip to the right game in time to see a bracket go up in flames as a mid-major scores an unforgettable win.

Being able to sniff out which teams are most likely to pull off a Cinderella-type run is one of the best ways to not only win your office pool, but also to emerge with bragging rights. And even if it's your Final Four team that takes a stunning loss, upsets are what annually make the NCAA Tournament a must-watch event.

Here are five games to consider when it comes to filling out the first round of your bracket.

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Injuries could fuel South Florida, VCU in upset bids​


Everyone loves a good 12-5 upset, but a few key absences could spark some 11-6 ones this year.

In the South, No. 6 seed North Carolina clearly isn't the same team without Caleb Wilson, who will not play in the NCAA Tournament due to his hand injury. The Tar Heels will have to grapple with a 27-7 VCU team that has won 16 of its last 17 games.

It's a similar story in the East, where No. 6 seed Louisville has been mum about the status of star Mikel Brown while he's missed the last four games due to a back injury. Does that open a door for No. 11 seed South Florida, which has won 11 straight games?

Akron could be primed to take down Texas Tech​


Miami (Ohio) was the talk of the Mid-American Conference this year, but Akron took home the conference tournament crown and earned a higher seed than the RedHawks.

Coach John Groce has led the Zips into March Madness out of the typically one-bid league in three consecutive seasons and four of the last five. And according to KenPom.com, this year's team is the highest-rated he's had in nine seasons at Akron.

Without all-America candidate JT Toppin, out for the rest of the season due to injury, the No. 5 seed Red Raiders won their first three games back into March Madness with three straight losses. All the ingredients are here for an upset at the hands of No. 12 seed Akron.

Kentucky on upset alert against Santa Clara​


The Wildcats have drawn plenty of headlines for how much it cost coach Mark Pope to assemble this roster, especially as Kentucky has scuffled its way to a 21-13 overall record and a No. 7 seed in the Midwest. For all the money spent, the Wildcats figure to have their hands full against one of the most talented mid-majors in the nation.





The Broncos take a lot of 3s (68th nationally in percentage of shots taken from deep), make 34.9% of them (130th nationally) and get 36.6% of their points from 3-point shots. If No. 10 seed Santa Clara is connecting from deep, Kentucky is going to get in trouble quickly.

Aden Holloway arrest could rock Alabama​


A late-developing absence could have No. 4 seed Alabama on high alert for an early exit.

Junior guard Aden Holloway, the team's second-leading scorer, was arrested March 16 on drug-related charges, putting his status for the NCAA Tournament in jeopardy.

At 23-9, the Crimson Tide have No. 13 seed Hofstra in the first round, which enters the tournament on a seven-game winning streak.

Ohio State men's basketball beat writer Adam Jardy can be reached at [email protected], on Bluesky at @cdadamjardy.bsky.social or on Twitter at @AdamJardy.

This article originally appeared on The Columbus Dispatch: March Madness upset predictions. 5 NCAA bracket-buster picks


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