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May 7, 2022; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Kyler Murray in attendance during UFC 274 at Footprint Center. © Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
There was a moment in time where Kyler Murray was the prototype, but after missing 12 games a season ago, fantasy football managers are skeptical. PFN Fantasy Analyst Jason Katz doesn’t get it and believes that the potential reward is rare at this spot on the draft board. Should you follow his lead?
Should You Draft Kyler Murray as a Fantasy Sleeper in 2026?
Katz hasn’t been shy about promoting Murray as an optimal piece for late-QB builds, and I think he’s onto something. Murray, of course, landed with Kevin O’Connell and the Minnesota Vikings after Arizona released him in March, and the same deep-ball infrastructure that turned Sam Darnold into a difference maker two years ago is now built around a quarterback with a far higher rushing floor than Darnold ever offered.
Start with the legs, because that’s the whole argument. Over 24% of Murray’s fantasy scoring has come from rushing in every season of his career. Last year, in five games before a foot injury ended his season, that number stood at 27.4%. How many years of difference-making athleticism remain in this profile is TBD, but we are worried about the next five months and, barring any reports to the contrary this summer, I’m going to assume that he’s physically in a good spot to continue with this production path.
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We are only one season removed from when Murray looked like a real weekly starter, throwing for 3,851 yards and rushing for 572 and adding five scores on the ground in 2024. The talent hasn’t gone anywhere. What changed is the situation, and the situation is now dramatically better. O’Connell’s system has grown more comfortable pushing the ball downfield every year it’s had a capable arm behind it, right up until last season’s mess at the position.
That reads like a personnel problem more than a scheme collapse, and if O’Connell trusts Murray to execute the deep shots the way he trusted Darnold, I’m happy to follow his lead.
Murray also gets an early bye in Week 6, which I like for a veteran walking into a new offense. He gets five weeks to build chemistry with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and the rest of this receiving corps before a full week off to regroup. That’s a friendlier runway than most quarterbacks changing teams get.
Kyler Murray’s Fantasy Schedule Provides Sneaky Upside Late
During the second half of the season, Murray gets to face Josh Allen, Drake Maye, and Jayden Daniels, never mind the teams with the presumptive first two picks in fantasy this season. The Vikings are going to have to score points in bunches to remain competitive and my lack of faith in this running game as a whole puts a lot of that on the shoulders of Murray.
That’s what we want. Usage drives production, and at his current cost, that usage can be had at a significant discount.
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None of this requires Murray to look like his 2020 or 2021 self again. It requires him to stay healthy and let O’Connell’s system do what it’s done for every quarterback who’s had it. Katz’s argument isn’t that Minnesota’s QB1 is going to be a top-5 performer at the position, but given his ADP, you can build a super team around him and that holds tremendous value.
Waiting on the position as an overall strategy is something that I’m buying as well. As good as the Josh Allen’s and Lamar Jackson’s of the world are, they’ll have to lap the field to make them a better pick, at cost, than a versatile option like Murray that is surrounded by just as much talent.
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