Why analytics really liked the Cards draft

Discussion in 'Arizona Cardinals' started by football karma, May 15, 2019.

  1. WildBB

    WildBB GL - MG!

    Posts:
    13,279
    Likes Received:
    656
    Joined:
    Mar 20, 2004
    Location:
    The Sonoran Jungle - West
    Surprising because secondaries are very hamstrung by present rules today. I think that's why blitzing has taken on so much significance by the D coordinators. Or just to mask individual coverage liabilities?
     
  2. Krangthebrain

    Krangthebrain Captain of Team Murray

    Age:
    39
    Posts:
    18,831
    Likes Received:
    4,017
    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2002
    Location:
    NoHo, CA
    I think the difference in league average and "good" is hard to quantify.

    I've seen enough bad QBs play for the Cardinals that I don't really care that the team got pennies on the dollar for Rosen.

    If you look at the numbers fivethirtyeight is throwing out there, the probability that Murray is going to be successful is pretty high. Sure they were wrong on Manziel, but their metric successfully identifies multiple really good QBs.
     
  3. Krangthebrain

    Krangthebrain Captain of Team Murray

    Age:
    39
    Posts:
    18,831
    Likes Received:
    4,017
    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2002
    Location:
    NoHo, CA
    They are....which is why having good cornerbacks is even more important.

    40 years ago, bad cornerbacks could just mug receivers over and over and get away with it.
     
    CardsSunsDbacks and kerouac9 like this.
  4. kerouac9

    kerouac9 #Stiff4Kliff

    Age:
    39
    Posts:
    27,558
    Likes Received:
    3,535
    Joined:
    Feb 14, 2003
    Location:
    Gilbert, AZ
    I mean, they built a model that has a forward-looking predictive sample size of 0. In back-testing, their analysis looks REALLY GOOD. But guess what? Back-testing always looks good because you choose your sample size and designed your model with the benefit of hindsight. I work in finance and I see this all the time.

    I generally trust the editorial process of fivethirtyeight, but their sample list of QBs doesn't make a lot of intuitive sense to me. Why only include those guys? Why not show all of your work?

    I'll trust QBASE for now, which suggests that Murray has some obstacle to overcome to be better than Rosen.
     
  5. Krangthebrain

    Krangthebrain Captain of Team Murray

    Age:
    39
    Posts:
    18,831
    Likes Received:
    4,017
    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2002
    Location:
    NoHo, CA
    Their (Rosen and Murray) QBASE was very similar....even though QBASE heavily penalizes Murray for only one year as a starter and purportedly having a great supporting cast (which remains to be seen). Looking at Andrew Luck was interesting, because I wonder how much they penalized him for having a great supporting cast, because looking back years later, Luck had a TON of good NFL players playing around him at Stanford. So maybe that penalty hasn't been applied to Luck, because at the time, his supporting cast wasn't viewed like it would it be now.

    I don't think that Murray's performance would suddenly have dipped dramatically if he had one more year of eligibility and played one more season. Some of these historical norms are changing or are being slowly proven to be biases. One thing to consider, is that while their are plenty of smart people working in NFL front offices, there are a lot more dumb jocks.
     
    daves likes this.
  6. kerouac9

    kerouac9 #Stiff4Kliff

    Age:
    39
    Posts:
    27,558
    Likes Received:
    3,535
    Joined:
    Feb 14, 2003
    Location:
    Gilbert, AZ
    https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2015/introducing-qbase

    QBASE didn't exist in 2012, but the backtested turned out to be EXTREMELY skeptical of Andrew Luck.

    This is their at-the-time analysis of Luck: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/nfl-draft/2012/lewin-career-forecast-2012

    That said, the Back-tested QBASE liked Andrew Luck twice as much as Murray (not counting rushing for either).
     
  7. cardncubfan

    cardncubfan H

    Age:
    57
    Posts:
    7,291
    Likes Received:
    2,558
    Joined:
    Aug 7, 2008
    Location:
    Chandler
    COLLEGE STATS
    NAME
    CPOE
    Russell Wilson +16
    Johnny Manziel +9
    Jameis Winston +8
    Kellen Moore +10
    Deshaun Watson +5
    Sam Darnold +5
    Matt Barkley +4
    Jared Goff +1
    Kevin Hogan +4
    Marcus Mariota +4
    Kirk Cousins +4
    Paxton Lynch +2
    Geno Smith +3
    Nathan Peterman +1
    Zach Mettenberger +4
    Trevor Siemian 0
    Matt McGloin -2
    Blake Bortles +4
    Lamar Jackson 0
     

Share This Page