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Here’s a look at how the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills match up in six key areas ahead of Thursday’s Week 3 game at Highmark Stadium (8:15 p.m., Amazon Prime Video):
When the Dolphins run: The operative word being “when.” When they did run against the New England Patriots in Sunday’s 33-27 loss, they found a few things, but the Dolphins again got away from the run game for just 15 attempts, although the game was competitive for the final three quarters. Miami had 61 yards on those rushes, and despite some efficiency, the team ranks dead last in rushing attempts through two weeks while No. 4 in yards per carry.
Running back De’Von Achane leads the backfield as he has also been an active participant in the pass game, leading the team in targets and receptions. It’s uncertain whether Jaylen Wright can make his season debut, but rookie Ollie Gordon II has only received three carries in two games as the primary spell back for Achane. Miami will have to make up for its banged-up right side of the line, and Jonah Savaiinaea can’t be a liability between left tackle Patrick Paul and center Aaron Brewer.
If there’s one area the Bills are vulnerable, it’s run defense. They are second-to-last against the run, but a lot of that came in the opener against the Baltimore Ravens, with running back Derrick Henry and mobile quarterback Lamar Jackson. Buffalo had defensive tackle Ed Oliver and linebacker Matt Milano missing practice early in the week. The Bills hope to get new veteran linebacker Shaq Thompson in the lineup with Terrel Bernard. Edge: Dolphins
When the Bills run: Through two weeks, Buffalo is second in the league in rushing thanks to the combination of running back James Cook, a Miami Central High alum, and mobile quarterback Josh Allen. Cook is averaging 5.2 yards per carry and leads the NFL with three rushing touchdowns. Allen has 89 rushing yards on 20 attempts and two scores.
The Dolphins have allowed 278 rushing yards over the first two games, 25th in the league. Teams have run on them more than any other team, a byproduct largely of the Indianapolis Colts playing with a lead throughout in the opener. Defensive tackle Zach Sieler has not yet made an impact this season up front. As Miami will look to contain Allen, part of run defense will be keeping an eye on him with a spy on designed pass plays, possibly an opportunity for linebacker Willie Gay Jr. to display his athleticism keeping up with Allen. Stopping the run will be the first key for the Dolphins before they can truly apply a pass rush on Allen. Edge: Bills
When the Dolphins pass: Statistically, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was much better in Week 2 — 26 of 32 for 315 yards and two touchdowns — but he still wasn’t fully reading things and missed some opportunities against a Patriots pass defense that was rather suspect Sunday. He threw the late interception over the middle on a fourth-and-9 when he had tight end Julian Hill open with room to run in the flat, and he also was intercepted on the opening drive but had the turnover called back due to penalty.
Tagovailoa hopes to build off some possible momentum brewing again in his connection with star wide receiver Tyreek Hill. Sunday against the Patriots, Hill had his first 100-yard game with Tagovailoa and first reception of at least 30 yards in a full calendar year. Hill and Waddle will look to get going against the Bills’ top-ranked pass defense, which figures to try to take the middle of the field away and force Tagovailoa to throw to the sidelines and dump it off to Achane. The Buffalo secondary features cornerbacks Christian Benford, Taron Johnson and Tre’Davious White and safeties Taylor Rapp and Cole Bishop.
The Bills knocked Jets quarterback Justin Fields out of the game while making him and backup Tyrod Taylor look pedestrian on Sunday. With Joey Bosa and Gregory Rousseau on the pass rush off the edge, Paul and backup right tackle Larry Borom, in for the injured Austin Jackson will have his hands full. If Miami is playing from behind, the Bills can get their pass rush going on Tagovailoa just days after he took five sacks, including the costly one that sealed the loss to New England. Edge: Bills
When the Bills pass: Allen usually dominates when he plays this division rival. He is 12-2 in his career against the Dolphins, with 3,737 passing yards, 37 touchdown passes and eight interceptions. His threat to scramble creates a challenge for defenders in coverage, along with pass rushers who must also keep contain in case he tucks it and run. Along with that, his elite arm strength allows Allen to chuck it deep with seemingly unlimited range on the field.
Allen has Buffalo as the league’s No. 2 pass offense through two weeks, spreading the ball out between wide receivers Keon Coleman, Joshua Palmer and Khalil Shakir, tight end Dalton Kincaid and Cook out of the backfield. With Storm Duck set to miss another game, cornerbacks Jack Jones and Rasul Douglas will be tasked with holding down the boundaries, with nickel cornerback Jason Marshall Jr. rotating in on his packages. As safety Ifeatu Melifonwu won’t be able to play through a calf injury, a rotation around Minkah Fitzpatrick of Ashtyn Davis and Dante Trader will likely be utilized.
They’re on the back end for the No. 22 pass defense, which has been aided by teams running the ball much on this defense. The pass rush picked up three sacks on New England quarterback Drake Maye last time out, but that unit still needs to apply more consistent pressure to help the secondary. That could come from the interior with Sieler and rookie Kenneth Grant or with Bradley Chubb, Jaelan Phillips, Chop Robinson and Matthew Judon on the edges against left tackle Dion Dawkins and right tackle Spencer Brown. Edge: Bills
Special teams: It was the best of special teams, it was the worst of special teams on back-to-back plays for the Dolphins last Sunday. They scored on Malik Washington’s punt return, and then they allowed Patriots’ Antonio Gibson to return the ensuing kick return for a touchdown.
The Bills have been able to turn games on the Dolphins on special teams before, like the 2023 regular-season finale to win the division. Both teams are using replacements for injured kickers. The Dolphins will have Riley Patterson up from the practice squad again. He has made all five of his kicks for Miami, while veteran Matt Prater has converted all six of his field goal attempts and five extra points this year. Edge: Bills
Intangibles: The Bills have a system of consistency as division champions for five consecutive seasons and perennial AFC contenders. They’re at home, where the Dolphins haven’t won since 2016. Miami travels to Buffalo on a short week, which is always difficult in the NFL, and is only more of a gauntlet when the franchise is on shaky ground with fans pushing for coach Mike McDaniel and general manager Chris Grier to be fired. Edge: Bills
PREDICTION: Bills 33, Dolphins 20
Dolphins Deep Dive: Prediction time — Can Miami stop Bills? | VIDEO
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When the Dolphins run: The operative word being “when.” When they did run against the New England Patriots in Sunday’s 33-27 loss, they found a few things, but the Dolphins again got away from the run game for just 15 attempts, although the game was competitive for the final three quarters. Miami had 61 yards on those rushes, and despite some efficiency, the team ranks dead last in rushing attempts through two weeks while No. 4 in yards per carry.
Running back De’Von Achane leads the backfield as he has also been an active participant in the pass game, leading the team in targets and receptions. It’s uncertain whether Jaylen Wright can make his season debut, but rookie Ollie Gordon II has only received three carries in two games as the primary spell back for Achane. Miami will have to make up for its banged-up right side of the line, and Jonah Savaiinaea can’t be a liability between left tackle Patrick Paul and center Aaron Brewer.
If there’s one area the Bills are vulnerable, it’s run defense. They are second-to-last against the run, but a lot of that came in the opener against the Baltimore Ravens, with running back Derrick Henry and mobile quarterback Lamar Jackson. Buffalo had defensive tackle Ed Oliver and linebacker Matt Milano missing practice early in the week. The Bills hope to get new veteran linebacker Shaq Thompson in the lineup with Terrel Bernard. Edge: Dolphins
When the Bills run: Through two weeks, Buffalo is second in the league in rushing thanks to the combination of running back James Cook, a Miami Central High alum, and mobile quarterback Josh Allen. Cook is averaging 5.2 yards per carry and leads the NFL with three rushing touchdowns. Allen has 89 rushing yards on 20 attempts and two scores.
The Dolphins have allowed 278 rushing yards over the first two games, 25th in the league. Teams have run on them more than any other team, a byproduct largely of the Indianapolis Colts playing with a lead throughout in the opener. Defensive tackle Zach Sieler has not yet made an impact this season up front. As Miami will look to contain Allen, part of run defense will be keeping an eye on him with a spy on designed pass plays, possibly an opportunity for linebacker Willie Gay Jr. to display his athleticism keeping up with Allen. Stopping the run will be the first key for the Dolphins before they can truly apply a pass rush on Allen. Edge: Bills
When the Dolphins pass: Statistically, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was much better in Week 2 — 26 of 32 for 315 yards and two touchdowns — but he still wasn’t fully reading things and missed some opportunities against a Patriots pass defense that was rather suspect Sunday. He threw the late interception over the middle on a fourth-and-9 when he had tight end Julian Hill open with room to run in the flat, and he also was intercepted on the opening drive but had the turnover called back due to penalty.
Tagovailoa hopes to build off some possible momentum brewing again in his connection with star wide receiver Tyreek Hill. Sunday against the Patriots, Hill had his first 100-yard game with Tagovailoa and first reception of at least 30 yards in a full calendar year. Hill and Waddle will look to get going against the Bills’ top-ranked pass defense, which figures to try to take the middle of the field away and force Tagovailoa to throw to the sidelines and dump it off to Achane. The Buffalo secondary features cornerbacks Christian Benford, Taron Johnson and Tre’Davious White and safeties Taylor Rapp and Cole Bishop.
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The Bills knocked Jets quarterback Justin Fields out of the game while making him and backup Tyrod Taylor look pedestrian on Sunday. With Joey Bosa and Gregory Rousseau on the pass rush off the edge, Paul and backup right tackle Larry Borom, in for the injured Austin Jackson will have his hands full. If Miami is playing from behind, the Bills can get their pass rush going on Tagovailoa just days after he took five sacks, including the costly one that sealed the loss to New England. Edge: Bills
When the Bills pass: Allen usually dominates when he plays this division rival. He is 12-2 in his career against the Dolphins, with 3,737 passing yards, 37 touchdown passes and eight interceptions. His threat to scramble creates a challenge for defenders in coverage, along with pass rushers who must also keep contain in case he tucks it and run. Along with that, his elite arm strength allows Allen to chuck it deep with seemingly unlimited range on the field.
Allen has Buffalo as the league’s No. 2 pass offense through two weeks, spreading the ball out between wide receivers Keon Coleman, Joshua Palmer and Khalil Shakir, tight end Dalton Kincaid and Cook out of the backfield. With Storm Duck set to miss another game, cornerbacks Jack Jones and Rasul Douglas will be tasked with holding down the boundaries, with nickel cornerback Jason Marshall Jr. rotating in on his packages. As safety Ifeatu Melifonwu won’t be able to play through a calf injury, a rotation around Minkah Fitzpatrick of Ashtyn Davis and Dante Trader will likely be utilized.
They’re on the back end for the No. 22 pass defense, which has been aided by teams running the ball much on this defense. The pass rush picked up three sacks on New England quarterback Drake Maye last time out, but that unit still needs to apply more consistent pressure to help the secondary. That could come from the interior with Sieler and rookie Kenneth Grant or with Bradley Chubb, Jaelan Phillips, Chop Robinson and Matthew Judon on the edges against left tackle Dion Dawkins and right tackle Spencer Brown. Edge: Bills
Special teams: It was the best of special teams, it was the worst of special teams on back-to-back plays for the Dolphins last Sunday. They scored on Malik Washington’s punt return, and then they allowed Patriots’ Antonio Gibson to return the ensuing kick return for a touchdown.
The Bills have been able to turn games on the Dolphins on special teams before, like the 2023 regular-season finale to win the division. Both teams are using replacements for injured kickers. The Dolphins will have Riley Patterson up from the practice squad again. He has made all five of his kicks for Miami, while veteran Matt Prater has converted all six of his field goal attempts and five extra points this year. Edge: Bills
Intangibles: The Bills have a system of consistency as division champions for five consecutive seasons and perennial AFC contenders. They’re at home, where the Dolphins haven’t won since 2016. Miami travels to Buffalo on a short week, which is always difficult in the NFL, and is only more of a gauntlet when the franchise is on shaky ground with fans pushing for coach Mike McDaniel and general manager Chris Grier to be fired. Edge: Bills
PREDICTION: Bills 33, Dolphins 20
Dolphins Deep Dive: Prediction time — Can Miami stop Bills? | VIDEO
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