Where Would You Hit Overbay/Grace/Williams in theLineup?

[FORKTUNG]

7 hole?

btw - Brenly started Matty today at first in Scottsdale. Koinkadink?

 

[BC867]

Originally posted by FORKTUNG
7 hole?

With Gonzo/Bautista/Finley ahead of him, that's about it. I'm glad to see Brenly no longer forces him into the 4 or 5 spots.

btw - Brenly started Matty today at first in Scottsdale. Koinkadink?

Williams was already named as the platoon 1B with Overbay.

Having missed time with the flu, Brenly will try to get Matty into the batting order more for the next two weeks.

I hope it doesn't come at the expense of Baerga, who has shown us alot more than Williams this Spring.

 

[DWKB]

Re: Re: Where Would You Hit Overbay/Grace/Williams in theLineup?

Originally posted by BC867

Having missed time with the flu, Brenly will try to get Matty into the batting order more for the next two weeks.

I hope it doesn't come at the expense of Baerga, who has shown us alot more than Williams this Spring.

Yeah it would be Williams fault and not that chipper smiling blue eyed pretty boy "defensive replacement" and "mentor" taking a spot on the roster would it?

 

[RLakin]

Re: Re: Re: Where Would You Hit Overbay/Grace/Williams in theLineup?

Originally posted by DWKB
Yeah it would be Williams fault and not that chipper smiling blue eyed pretty boy "defensive replacement" and "mentor" taking a spot on the roster would it?

Good point. Which brings me to another. Do you know the D-backs will have one roster spot to give to either Baerga, Donnells, Cintron, or Jose?

 

[BC867]

Re: Re: Re: Where Would You Hit Overbay/Grace/Williams in theLineup?

Originally posted by DWKB
Yeah it would be Williams fault and not that chipper smiling blue eyed pretty boy "defensive replacement" and "mentor" taking a spot on the roster would it?

Until Overbay shows us that he can handle the 1B job, Mark Grace is insurance this year.

Is there any question that he is also a more skilled batter and more dependable pinch-hitter than Williams?

Williams, on the other hand, is here . . . because he's here. There's no way he'd be on the roster if he didn't have a year left . . . even with Brenly's loyalty to him.

 

[Moose Lady]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Where Would You Hit Overbay/Grace/Williams in theLineup?

Originally posted by RLakin
Good point. Which brings me to another. Do you know the D-backs will have one roster spot to give to either Baerga, Donnells, Cintron, or Jose?

Jose isn't part of that mix. He's OF. The 3 that are vying for the last infield position are Baerga, Donnels and Cintron. And I'm guessing it's going to be between Donnels and Baerga. Baerga is more of an asset in that he can play any one of the spots along with switch hitting so I am assuming he will be the one to grab that spot.

 

[RLakin]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Where Would You Hit Overbay/Grace/Williams in theLineup?

Originally posted by finleyfanatic
Jose isn't part of that mix. He's OF. The 3 that are vying for the last infield position are Baerga, Donnels and Cintron. And I'm guessing it's going to be between Donnels and Baerga. Baerga is more of an asset in that he can play any one of the spots along with switch hitting so I am assuming he will be the one to grab that spot.

Assuming the D-Backs are injury free and carry the normal amount of pitchers, there's 13 spots already taken, which means the last spot will be given to one the 4 that I mentioned.

Already on roster:

INF (6): Overbay, Spivey, Womack, Counsell, Williams, Grace

OF (5): Bautista, Finley, Gonzalez, Dellucci, McCracken

C (2): Barajas, Moller

So there's 1 spot left between Donnels, Jose, Baerga, and Cintron. Cintron has an option, so he's out. Donnels is strictly a left handed pinch hitter and they already have Grace, so I think he's out as well. Which leaves Jose and Baerga. Both are switch hitters, but Jose has more power. Baerga is a better hitter, and can play all positions in the infield. I agree that Baerga will get the nod, but one can only dream that, in a perfect world, Donnels, Jose, and Baerga would have played their way on to this roster, which I think would have been better w/ 2 of them then the latter duo on the above infield roster.

 

[DWKB]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Where Would You Hit Overbay/Grace/Williams in theLineup?

Originally posted by BC867
Until Overbay shows us that he can handle the 1B job, Mark Grace is insurance this year.

Yeah, it's not like Donnels or Baerga could play 1B. Or Matty for that matter. I can see why we would need Grace if Overbay fails cause we traded one of our 1B, lost another to FA, and we would only have 3 potential 1B on the bench if we didn't have Grace. Saying Grace is needed for 1B because Overbay hasn't proven he could make it?

Grace 2002:

YEAR *    AB  R  H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS 
2002 124 298 43 75 19  0  7  48 46 30  2  0 .252 .351 .386 .736

 

[schillingfan]

That analysis is kind of facile.

D-Backs were not going to keep both Overbay and Durazo. Durazo is entering first arbitration year, which means he will get more expensive, particularly if he actually starts full-time and stays healthy. Overbay is major league minimum and would be a rookie, so he is considerable salary savings over Durazo. They had to either fish or cut bait with Overbay and they went with the cheaper guy, and healthier I might add.

The real choice was between Colbrunn and Grace. And a logical one as well, since Colbrunn bats righty and kills lefty pitching and both Overbay and Grace are lefties.

While Grace's batting average was way down last year, he still has nice plate discipline with his OBP almost .100 higher than his BA. If his batting average came up another .25 points to the .270 range he would have an OBP over .370 which would be more than acceptable.

One of the joys of baseball is that so much of the statistics are individual rather than team, so the Durazo issue can easily be revisited once we see how he performs in Oakland.

 

[DWKB]

Originally posted by schillingfan
That analysis is kind of facile.

D-Backs were not going to keep both Overbay and Durazo. Durazo is entering first arbitration year, which means he will get more expensive, particularly if he actually starts full-time and stays healthy. Overbay is major league minimum and would be a rookie, so he is considerable salary savings over Durazo. They had to either fish or cut bait with Overbay and they went with the cheaper guy, and healthier I might add.

The real choice was between Colbrunn and Grace. And a logical one as well, since Colbrunn bats righty and kills lefty pitching and both Overbay and Grace are lefties.

[COLOR]

So comparing Grace --a LH 1B making $1.5M this year-- to Durazo --a LH 1B making $1M+ this year-- is facile?

Care to explain this too me without your arbitrary "you can only compare this guy to that one" reasoning?

 

[RLakin]

Originally posted by DWKB
So comparing Grace --a LH 1B making $1.5M this year-- to Durazo --a LH 1B making $1M+ this year-- is facile?

Good point. I don't think it had anything to do w/ money. Durazo wanted out and didn't want to return the D-Backs phone calls unless it was about a trade. I believe he also referred to Brenly's platoons at first base as a "parade." But this isn't even the issue. The issue (as far as I'm concerned) is whether or not there are guys on this spring roster as we speak that are better suited for reserve roles on the D-Backs squad than either Grace or Williams. I would say yes, since Donnels is a better lefty coming off the bench and Baerga has more versatility. You could even make a strong argument for either Jose or Cintron since both are hitting well this spring. In fact, I'll even go further and say this roster is better with Donnels/Baerga/Cintron than Grace/Williams/Womack.

 

[schillingfan]

Originally posted by DWKB
So comparing Grace --a LH 1B making $1.5M this year-- to Durazo --a LH 1B making $1M+ this year-- is facile?

Care to explain this too me without your arbitrary "you can only compare this guy to that one" reasoning?

D-Backs couldn't keep Durazo and Overbay. Both need to start and get their careers in gear. You really can't compare keeping Durazo v. Grace. And Durazo netted a starting pitcher (whether you like him or not).

 

[Derek in Tucson]

I can almost understand DWKB's view on the Diamondbacks most of the time, because he at least tries to stick to his claim of "all I want to see is the best players which makes for a better game". But you Lakin, are on a whole different level. Do you honestly believe that Donnels has a better bat than Grace? Have you even looked at Donnels career (such as it is) numbers to see what this guy has done for the last 16 years? He has a lifetime career average of .233. His OBP is .313, and his SLG is a mere .355.

Now I know that anything anyone says about Baerga vs Williams is just going to go in one of your ears and out the other, but this Donnels is better than Grace spiel has me wondering just how far gone your bias is. Even Grace last season pulling his worst year since 1991 can muster up an OPS that's better than Donnel's career average.

Now I can somewhat understand a negative view of Grace. I didn't think his signing here was anything more than an effort by the Marketing Department to sell tickets to Cubs fans for more than 1 or 2 series a year. I also didn't think Grace should have pushed the issue of a new contract to 1 more year at more than $500k to 1 million, but I don't blame him getting what he can. But I also don't let all of that cloud my thinking to the point where Chris Donnels > Grace. Do you have any actual facts to back up that opinion beyond....well, at least Donnels can play 3B?

 

[RLakin]

I'd never say that Donnels is better and/or had a better career than Grace. As it pertains to reserve roles, however, I would argue that Donnels is a better PH option and has a little more versatility. Donnels has had a great spring, and I think Grace's bat has slowed to the point where it will be hard for him to bounce back.
And I don't think people necessarily have negative views of Mark Grace. Rather that some (including me) feel that a roster spot and $1.5 mill is better spent on players that you're not just keeping so in a year he can be a team broadcaster. I like Grace. Seems like a nice guy, but he had nothing left last year and there's nothing that he can bring to this team that a Chris Donnels, Baerga, Cintron, Jose, or Colbrunn could not. If that's "bias" then I guess I'm guilty.

 

[Derek in Tucson]

I thought I could get you to bring some facts to the table, but you just reposted what you said earlier. Instead you base Grace's performance at the plate on 6 spring training at bats, and last season where his career low numbers were equal to one of Donnels' best years. Maybe if Donnels was a young promising player who could be expected to improve, the he'd deserve a spot on the team, but he's a 36 yr old never was....nothing but a part time player his whole career with a lifetime OPS of .674.

You say that Donnels is a better lefty coming off the bench than Grace, but yu've said nothing that actually proves that point. Again, where are the facts to back up this claim?

 

[RLakin]

Here's one that really stood out to me:

2002 Late Inning Pressure (a statistic very relevant to a pinch hitters job)

Donnels: .350, 7 of 20, .700 SLG, .391 OBP, 1 HR 5 RBI

Grace: .178, 8 of 46!!!, .283 SLG, .235 OBP, 1 HR 6 RBI



By the way (just for DWKB) take a look at Durazo's

Durazo: .324, 12 for 37, .784 SLG, .468 OBP, 5 HR 15 RBI

 

[Derek in Tucson]

So you're going to take a total of 20 at bats for Donnels, and 46 at bats for Grace, from last year and make your decidisions based on that? Um, I think you need a bigger sample size. Career numbers tell a better story of future performance, not 20 at bats in isolated situations.

 

[schillingfan]

Donnels is obviously better. He broke up Vicente Padilla's no hitter last year.

 

[RLakin]

Originally posted by Derek in Tucson
So you're going to take a total of 20 at bats for Donnels, and 46 at bats for Grace, from last year and make your decidisions based on that? Um, I think you need a bigger sample size. Career numbers tell a better story of future performance, not 20 at bats in isolated situations

What do you think pinch hitting is? Maybe you think we should go back to 1991, but as I explained earlier Mark Grace has had a better career than Chris Donnels, but that has nothing to do with who is better at this reserve role at this time.
Question: When do most pinch hitters hit? Question: Do you want those pinch hitters to deliver in those situations? If you answered 7th inning on to the 1st and yes to the 2nd (which you should have) then there is an obvious advantage for Donnels based on the stat I gave you. And if you think 20 bats isn't enough, maybe 46 is. By that count Donnels would have had roughly twice the production for Grace in that role. Oh but 2002's stats aren't relevant. Neither are 2003's thus far. Lets go back to 2000 or 1999, or even 1991. Basically what your saying is that we should look at career numbers for Grace instead of one of the most relevant stats (pertaining to pinch hitting) in the most recent years. By that logic Jay Bell should have been locked up to a longer term deal this off-season. After all he has good career stats which, according to you, overwhelms the lack of production that we’ve seen in the past couple years.

 

[Derek in Tucson]

Well since Grace really hasn't had to be a pinch hitter during his career, we don't really know what he's capable of in that role. To base his future performance as a bench player on 46 at bats, while ignoring the rest of his career, is inane.

Using small statistical sample sizes, and only over the course of 1 year, isn't going to give you the kind of data that's useable to make an informed judgment.

Besides, the whole idea of "clutch hitting is absurd. Really you should read some articles like this one or this one on the subject. Facts are there is no proof that clutch hitting exists, so you're better off putting your best players on the field and take your chances, because really it's a random crap shoot after that. And IMO, Grace is a better hitter overall than Donnels, and all the relevant stats back up that claim.

 

[RLakin]

Why then do the D-Backs bring in a few veteran pitchers to fill a couple of roster spots. After all, if the evaluation period was based solely on career stats wouldn't spring competition (like clutch hitting) be a myth?

 

[RLakin]

In case you were wondering Donnels was 2 for 2 again today w/1 RBI (Matt's total this spring despite having 2 more ABs).

One a whole Donnels is batting just over .600 (12-20) with 7 runs scored (2 less than Womack even though Tony has 24 more AB's ) 5 RBI (2 more than Overbay even though Lyle has had 18 more ABs) and 1 SB (same as Womack).

 

[Derek in Tucson]

Just because a team makes decisions based on spring training numbers, doesn't make it right. Really, do you think it's right to judge a player's perfomance over a month's period of spring training games and ignore his accomplisheents from the previous X number of years? Anybody can get hot for a month, especially for a hitter who's going up against pitchers that aren't in top form. Nor are a lot of these backup jobs for hitters being battled against major league pitching during the srping. A lot of these end of the 25 man roster players are being brought in during the later innings when the major leaguers are gone and guys like Andrew Good are on the mound(nothing against Andrew Good, but he isn't exactly Mark Mulder).

Also, there are those who say that all major league baseball players are clutch performers to an extent. After all, at every turn from the time they are signed as a professional, every pitcher and hitter is under a microscope and under pressure to perform. At the minor league level, it might be the home office's minor league coordinator showing up for a game.

 

[RLakin]

Originally posted by Derek in Tucson
Just because a team makes decisions based on spring training numbers, doesn't make it right. Really, do you think it's right to judge a player's perfomance over a month's period of spring training games and ignore his accomplisheents from the previous X number of years? Anybody can get hot for a month, especially for a hitter who's going up against pitchers that aren't in top form. Nor are a lot of these backup jobs for hitters being battled against major league pitching during the srping. A lot of these end of the 25 man roster players are being brought in during the later innings when the major leaguers are gone and guys like Andrew Good are on the mound(nothing against Andrew Good, but he isn't exactly Mark Mulder).

Also, there are those who say that all major league baseball players are clutch performers to an extent. After all, at every turn from the time they are signed as a professional, every pitcher and hitter is under a microscope and under pressure to perform. At the minor league level, it might be the home office's minor league coordinator showing up for a game.

I would agree that spring training numbers should not be the sole factor in determining whether someone is roster bound, especially, as you noted, when some of these at-bats come against less than major league quality pitching. I will say, however, that hot springs have landed the D-Backs some of their better role players in recent years, including Counsell, McCracken, and possibly Baerga this year.

As to clutch hitting I am one of those people who believe that it is relevant, and not a myth nor an absurd idea. EX: If a were a major league GM I would much rather have a Mr. October than a Mr. May. And, furthermore, I don't believe that legends are made by random hits. Rather that Bobby Thompson, George Brett, Reggie Jackson, Joe Carter and Derek Jeter stepped up when the spotlight shined brightest and delivered the hits that made them legends not random mathematical benefactors.

 

[Derek in Tucson]

Well until there's some study that proves clutch hitting exist, that certain players perform in late inning pressure situations more than just in random years, then I'll chose hard facts over anectdotal evidence.

Btw, I'm not saying that Bobby Thomson(note the correct spelling of his last name) or any of the other players didn't "come through in the clutch", only that they weren't predisposed to do so, or had some inherent talent to do it that others don't. You also picked out the names that get mentioned the most because they are the most famous. However there are other players who have performed feats of similar stature in the playoffs who aren't so well known. Players like Scott Brosius, Pat Borders, Gene Tenace, Eddie Perez, and the DBacks own Craig Counsell who was the MVP of the NLCS in 2001. Players who have otherwise had indistinguished careers.

I imagine you could put together a team of these players who wouldn't be even good enough to make the playoffs. They were just merely in the right place, at the right time, and saw a nice fat pitch, or number of pitches, they could hit.