Week 14 Elimination Scenarios

OP
OP
TheCardinal

TheCardinal

Veteran
Joined
Dec 13, 2011
Posts
426
Reaction score
422
Umm... 14 more, right?

Personally, the Cardinals are 7-0 when I've attended home games, but 4-10 when I've attended away games. I did see them beat the Falcons at Fulton County Stadium in 1990... But seeing them win at all 32 teams sounds like an impossible dream to me! Good luck!

...dave
It seems like we need you to attend more home games! My only trip there was in 2016 when we still had a pretty good home record, I just picked a bad week to go (Rams).

My road record was similarly horrible, though my luck has turned around since the win at Green Bay in 2018. Since that game, I’ve picked off quite a few, including “first-time” wins for me at NY Giants, Dallas, Jacksonville, Cleveland, and Seattle, plus new-venue wins at LA and Vegas. If not for those late-game heroics by Rosen in Lambeau, the drought at Green Bay would stretch back to the 1940s.
 

cardpa

Have a Nice Day!
Joined
Mar 14, 2003
Posts
7,037
Reaction score
3,424
Location
SC
Some people will not like this however in some ways I rather the Cardinals just lose Monday so we could move forward. Put the last nail in the coffin we all know is going to come. Hold the memorial service and bury the 2022 season. Then maybe we at least get to see the youngsters play more and see what they have to offer.
 

BullheadCardFan

Go for it
Supporting Member
Joined
Sep 5, 2005
Posts
55,297
Reaction score
15,821
Location
Bullhead City, AZ
Here’s how the NFC playoff picture looks heading into Sunday.

CURRENTLY IN
1. Eagles (11-1) Clinch a playoff berth if they beat the Giants on Sunday, or if both the 49ers and Seahawks lose.

2. Vikings (10-2) Clinch the NFC North if they beat the Lions on Sunday.

3. 49ers (8-4) The NFC West-leading 49ers taking on the NFC South-leading Buccaneers is a big one.

4. Buccaneers (6-6) Beating the 49ers would be a big win for potential postseason seeding.

5. Cowboys (9-3) They’re rooting hard for the Giants to beat the Eagles on Sunday.

6. Giants (7-4-1) Probably won’t catch the Eagles regardless, but a win would be very big for their wild card hopes.

7. Seahawks (7-5) Can’t afford to get upset by the Panthers on Sunday.

OUTSIDE LOOKING IN
8. Commanders (7-5-1) In good shape in the wild card race at the bye.

9. Lions (5-7) Surging late in the season, but desperately need to beat the Vikings on Sunday.

10. Falcons (5-8) During their bye week they’ll be rooting for the 49ers to beat the Buccaneers.

11. Packers (5-8) On their bye week and will need a miracle to get them to the playoffs.

12. Cardinals (4-8) Slim playoff hopes and desperately need to beat the Patriots on Monday night.

13. Panthers (4-8) Only two games out of the NFC South, and a win over the Seahawks keeps their slim playoff hopes alive.

NO CHANCE OF GETTING IN
14. Saints (4-9) The one NFC South team that has no realistic path to the playoffs.

15. Rams (4-9) Baker Mayfield‘s comeback win over the Raiders was spectacular, but it was too little, too late.

16. Bears (3-10) Dead last in the conference at the bye.

 
OP
OP
TheCardinal

TheCardinal

Veteran
Joined
Dec 13, 2011
Posts
426
Reaction score
422
The Giants did lose, so that means we’ll have a fresh set of elimination scenarios for Week 15 regardless of what else happens this week.
 

JosiahLee

Hall of Famer
Joined
Sep 20, 2018
Posts
1,423
Reaction score
2,421
Location
Gilbert
Well, if the Cardinals want to entertain any hopes of going to playoffs, I think its safe to say they have to win out. And even that might not do it. But if they were to do that, they would enter the playoffs on a five game win streak and might be that team no one wants to face. Now back to reality.
I wonder what the odds would be of getting in if they won out to finish 9-8.

I haven’t looked at the schedules of the teams ahead of them but I’m guessing even with winning out the odds would be like 35%
 
OP
OP
TheCardinal

TheCardinal

Veteran
Joined
Dec 13, 2011
Posts
426
Reaction score
422
I wonder what the odds would be of getting in if they won out to finish 9-8.

I haven’t looked at the schedules of the teams ahead of them but I’m guessing even with winning out the odds would be like 35%
Even if we somehow finish 9-8, I would score our playoff chances much lower, closer to 5%. Just quickly running through the numbers, if we were to win out, I believe we would need THREE of the following FOUR:

- SEA to lose 3 of 4 (SF, KC, NYJ, LAR)
- WSH/NYG winner to lose last three (WSH plays SF, CLE, DAL; NYG plays MIN, IND, PHI)
- WSH/NYG loser to lose 2 of last 3
- DET to lose 2 of 4 (NYJ, CRL, CHI, GB).

We might also need GB or CRL to lose at least once depending on how many teams clog up the tie-breaker. TB could also figure into it if CRL was to catch them for first in the South.

No matter how you score it, playoff hopes are pretty grim even under the most optimistic projections.
 

pemory09

Hall of Famer
Joined
Jan 3, 2016
Posts
2,031
Reaction score
2,182
Even if we somehow finish 9-8, I would score our playoff chances much lower, closer to 5%. Just quickly running through the numbers, if we were to win out, I believe we would need THREE of the following FOUR:

- SEA to lose 3 of 4 (SF, KC, NYJ, LAR)
- WSH/NYG winner to lose last three (WSH plays SF, CLE, DAL; NYG plays MIN, IND, PHI)
- WSH/NYG loser to lose 2 of last 3
- DET to lose 2 of 4 (NYJ, CRL, CHI, GB).

We might also need GB or CRL to lose at least once depending on how many teams clog up the tie-breaker. TB could also figure into it if CRL was to catch them for first in the South.

No matter how you score it, playoff hopes are pretty grim even under the most optimistic projections.
Sadly, today was actually a good day for the Cards given these scenarios. Of course, any day they aren’t playing this season is a good day.
 
OP
OP
TheCardinal

TheCardinal

Veteran
Joined
Dec 13, 2011
Posts
426
Reaction score
422
Sadly, today was actually a good day for the Cards given these scenarios. Of course, any day they aren’t playing this season is a good day.
Very true. With the Giants’ loss (and even before Seattle lost), we were guaranteed to be mathematically alive at kickoff next week in Denver, regardless of what Seattle did, what we’ll do tomorrow night, or what Seattle does Thursday.

The 49ers’ win against TB, however, does officially eliminate us from NFC West contention.
 

daves

Keepin' it real!
Supporting Member
Joined
Nov 2, 2003
Posts
2,868
Reaction score
4,942
Location
Orange County, CA
I haven’t looked at the schedules of the teams ahead of them but I’m guessing even with winning out the odds would be like 35%

Even if we somehow finish 9-8, I would score our playoff chances much lower, closer to 5%
According to Five Thirty Eight, if you check off wins for the Cardinals vs. the Patriots (we'll see in a few hours), Broncos (Cards might actually be favored!), Buccaneers (plausible), Falcons (plausible), and 49ers (implausible, unless they rest half their team), the Cardinals' chances of making the playoffs rises from 1% to 25%!

If the Cards lose to the Patriots tonight and win the rest of their games, their playoff odds would be 0.5%.

You must be registered for see images


...dave
 
Last edited:

AZ Native

Living is Easy with Eyes Closed
Joined
Apr 30, 2007
Posts
14,697
Reaction score
6,535
Location
Cave Creek
At least we will not be totally embarrassed in front of a national audience again.
 
Top