UA's Bowl Possibilities

AsUdUdE

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Arizona's Bowl Possibilities Endless

First the good news for the University of Arizona. The Bowl selecting process is not an exact science and match-makers DO take into account geographical location/fan base/match-up/previous years while make their choice.

To that end, even after the ugly night that was called a football game, Arizona would seem like a natural fit, especially if Saturday's game turn out chalk.

But history is against UA, not just because they lost, but how they lost.

Since 1992, when the Fiesta Bowl became a top bowl, 3 teams have played in the Fiesta after losing their final game/championship game:

1993- Syracuse lost to #1 Miami by 6
2004- Ohio St los by 14 @ #6 Michigan
2008- West Virginia lost by 4 to Pitt

Ironically it was a Rich Rod led a WV squad that was the #1 ranked team in 2008 and all they had to do is beat a mediocre Pitt team (they were favored by 28 points that game) to get to the national title. Alas, they didn't, but trounced #3 Oklahoma in the Fiesta bowl to redeem themselves, somewhat.

Here is the point, the average margin of loss with those teams was 8.

Conversely, the average margin of victory for the final game before teams are selected to play in the Fiesta bowl is 19.25.

Translation: Tradition says the Fiesta Bowl likes winners and momentum when it comes to picking participants.

For those who are wondering out loud if there is THAT big of difference playing in the Fiesta Bowl rather than the Alamo bowl, as Lee Corso would put it, not-so-fast my friend. What makes Saturday's games for Arizona so nerve racking is just how far they could potentially fall.

For example, if the Fiesta Bowl decides to pass on Arizona, the next bowl to pick would be the Alamo Bowl played on January 2nd in San Antonio. This match-up would be a juicy one against the Big-12 #2 (possibly Baylor/K-State), but there has been strong rumors that Alamo officials strongly prefer UCLA and will opt for the Bruins over Arizona (and to a lesser extent Arizona State and USC)

Next up would be the Holiday Bowl. This would seem to be the least likely landing spot for Arizona. All signs are pointing USC heading down south to San Diego to be in the bowl for the first time. Holiday bowl officials have raved about the possibility to get USC.

So if the Fiesta, Alamo, and Holiday Bowl's pass, Arizona would be automatically selected to play in the Foster's Farms Bowl on December 30th. Their opponent would be from the BIG 10 conference most likely Iowa or Rutgers.

Not a bad bowl by any means, but would certainly be seen as bitterly disappointing for a team that had national championship aspirations just 16 hours ago.

Sunday morning 10:30 local time can not get here soon enough for Wildcat fans, and while the taste from last night may still linger, there is one thing that Rich Rod has done, people are talking Wildcat Football, and THAT is a big step in the right direction.
 

TJ

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I'll simplify it:

If Arizona stays within the Top 11, it's Fiesta or Cotton. Either is fine given the events last night. If not, it's Alamo most likely.
 
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AsUdUdE

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I'll simplify it:

If Arizona stays within the Top 11, it's Fiesta or Cotton. Either is fine given the events last night. If not, it's Alamo most likely.

Ya, I think you may be right..

If you read between the lines with Derrick Fox's interview yesterday, His gushing over UCLA and how much head-to-head, star-power, and fan mix make them ideal for the Alamo, he did hint this was all assuming Arizona would not be in the equation…

If they are, Derrick Fox may very well change his tune and substitute "UofA" for all of his "UCLA" answers
 

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This post might make sense if the Fiesta Bowl had a choice in who they get. The committee will be deciding who will play in that group of bowls.

If we drop we drop. The bowl system is dying anyways, nobody is going to know or care what the difference is between the Sun Bowl and Fiesta Bowl in 20 years. Its all about the playoff now.
 

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ESPN projecting us in the Fiesta Bowl vs. Boise State.

They're also currently projecting TCU in the Rose Bowl, it's safe to say those aren't updated.

UofA is right on the bubble, because of the Boise St thing, they could get bumped.

For the Orange, Fiesta, Cotton and Peach you have 8 slots. Baylor, TCU, Boise St, Michigan St and Mississippi St all pretty much have to get one of those slots.

That leaves 3 more slots for: UofA, Georgia Tech, Ole Miss, Kansas St & maybe Georgia (though the Bulldogs seem less likely). So you've got 4 (or 5) teams for 3 slots. Due to UofA's most recent game being a big loss, it could end up hurting them.

Then you also have to consider the bowls like the Alamo bowl don't HAVE to select in order. They can skip a team and pick a team that is within one loss in the loss column. So the Alamo could take UCLA or even ASU I believe, though I don't think they would take ASU over UofA, UCLA has a lot of appeal.
 

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A lot of wishful thinking by Sparky and co. Facts are Arizona had a better resume than most of the rest of the teams that could have gotten a potential bid.
 

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A lot of wishful thinking by Sparky and co. Facts are Arizona had a better resume than most of the rest of the teams that could have gotten a potential bid.


Exactly. ASU fans are gonna be salty as hell. Love the lip service about how the Foster Farms bowl would've been an acceptable bowl. We're where we belong, and any other year, this would be the Rose Bowl.
 

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Exactly. ASU fans are gonna be salty as hell. Love the lip service about how the Foster Farms bowl would've been an acceptable bowl. We're where we belong, and any other year, this would be the Rose Bowl.

Their new thing is simply calling us lucky and undeserving without acknowledging their own (and every other winning teams) fortuitous breaks over the last couple years.
 

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PAC 12 Bowls:

Rose: Oregon-FSU
Fiesta: UA-Boise St
Alamo: UCLA-Kansas St
Holiday: USC-Nebraska
Foster Farms: Stanford-Maryland
Sun: ASU-Duke
Vegas: Utah-Colorado St
Tempe: UW-Ok St
 

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Their new thing is simply calling us lucky and undeserving without acknowledging their own (and every other winning teams) fortuitous breaks over the last couple years.


Yeah, for the two asu posters who spent time on this thread breaking down their bowl projections for Arizona laced with heavy amounts of caveats, I have to imagine they're pissed. I'm used to asu fans marginalizing every Arizona accomplishment, so this thread is just par for the course.

While Graham has a PAC South championship under his belt, he doesn't have a major bowl game on his resume. Now that RichRod has one, it's unsettling for asu fans to come to the realization that they're now a step behind Arizona in football. Add in basketball, and we're talking about a gap as wide as the Grand Canyon in the two athletic departments.
 
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I'm not going to go that far. ASU was seven points in Tucson from being where we are (and yes that includes the inevitable Oregon ass-kicking) after all. The truth is the difference in the two football programs isn't nearly as wide as ASU fans made it out to be. They're pretty much on equal footing in reality however while talking to ASU people before the season one would have thought they were Alabama and we were New Mexico State. That false sense of reality is probably why they are so disgruntled at the moment.

Now as far as hoops go then yes there is a substantial gap between the two programs.
 
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TJ

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I'm not going to go that far. ASU was seven points in Tucson from being where we are (and yes that includes the inevitable Oregon ass-kicking) after all. The truth is the difference in the two football programs isn't nearly as wide as ASU fans made it out to be. They're pretty much on equal footing in reality however while talking to ASU people before the season one would have thought they were Alabama and we were New Mexico State. That false sense of reality is probably why they are so disgruntled at the moment.

Now as far as hoops go then yes there is a substantial gap between the two programs.

I see getting to a bowl of significance versus the Holiday bowl last season as a step up. I'm not saying Arizona is light years ahead, but to this point, I'll take what RichRod has done slightly over what Graham has accomplished; especially when you factor in that RichRod had far less to work with when he started.

And had the the roles been reversed, and ASU beat us, they wouldn't be in the Fiesta Bowl because of the bad loss on their resume to non-bowl eligible Oregon St. They wouldn't have advanced far enough into the CFP Top 10 to withstand a UO butt whipping and not drop significantly.

I do agree that the perception from Sparky that ASU is somehow a powerhouse is laughable.
 

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And had the the roles been reversed, and ASU beat us, they wouldn't be in the Fiesta Bowl because of the bad loss on their resume to non-bowl eligible Oregon St. They wouldn't have advanced far enough into the CFP Top 10 to withstand a UO butt whipping and not drop significantly.
Disagree on this point, they would have a top 15 road win over us to counter the OSU loss. I think they would have made if they had won but alas they didn't so El Paso it is.
 
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