Tick tock... tick tock

Discussion in 'Finance, Investments, and Careers' started by BillsCarnage, Nov 1, 2019.

  1. Ouchie-Z-Clown

    Ouchie-Z-Clown I'm better than Mulli!

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    Absolute, understand that what dscher just put forth is pretty much a contrarian position to what the majority of economists believe. That’s not to say he’s wrong, but I think it’s important that you view whatever anyone posts on a sports message board with a high level of skepticism. If you’re really concerned, hire someone. They’ll dive into your particular fact sets rather than give you sweeping commentary that may or may not be applicable to you. And about whom you know little. We have no idea what dscher’s background is, if he’s good at what he does, etc. similar for all of you who don’t know me. So please don’t give anything said in here too much credibility.

    the danger with trying to figure out when to move to more conservative investments based on timing is that you probably don’t know when to do it - particularly in markets this volatile. With 500-2000 point swings potentially on a daily basis at present you can really damage your allocation.
     
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  2. dscher

    dscher Registered

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    Agree with ouchie. I believe I made it extremely clear across many comments so far that this isn't meant to be financial advice, only one man's opinion and that we all have to do what makes each of us comfortable at the end of the day. No hand holding needed I'm sure ....as we are all adults.

    Am I a contrarian though? Yes, I am. Most mainstream economists also had no idea we were on the cusp of the financial crisis either.. so obviously, everything should be taken with a grain of salt.. Even the mainstream pros get it wrong quite frequently. But I digress. This isnt a competition of right vs wrong...but rather, as I've said, an awareness. We need to be aware of both sides of the market in all environments imo. I'm only sharing my views so we don't get too fixated on one side of it. But in the end, comfort level takes priority as always in any decision. Best of luck.
     
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  3. dscher

    dscher Registered

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    Great resource for anyone who wants technicals part of their tool bag.. Northman Trader on YouTube is a fantastic weekly recap on all things technical in the marketplace. Highly recommend. Not receiving any sales commission on this pitch either. Lol
     
  4. Folster

    Folster The system doesn't work.

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    Here's the case for long term investing.

    SP500IndexRollingReturns-59039af75f9b5810dc28fe2c.jpg

    It's interesting that both of the worst 10 and 15 year periods were basically for those who invested right before the dot com bubble burst. It's extremely rare for the S&P 500 to have a negative return in a 10 year period. I'm not sure it's happened more than once.

    Even if you timed it horribly for the worst 20 year period you still averaged a modest 6.4% a year.

    Obligatory Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.
     
    Last edited: Mar 14, 2020
  5. elindholm

    elindholm edited for content

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    It's really pretty simple. There will always be those who believe that they can time the markets. Of those, some will, by chance, enjoy a run of successes that reinforces their belief. Others will get it wrong and say that they learned something -- but what they learned won't be that they can't time the markets.

    Then there are those who believe that trying to time the markets is pretty much hopeless, and you need to play the long-term percentages according to your own personal circumstances. Those people won't have the huge successes or failures in either direction, so they don't attract much attention.
     
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  6. dscher

    dscher Registered

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    Can't argue with that when you could have averaged a little less with a bond portfolio for much better sleep at night.. ;).

    All kidding aside..I'm only on here venting about it so much because I think we are entering something much bigger at play moving forwards. Negative rates usually don't end well for economies and markets. Time will tell.
     
  7. Superbone

    Superbone Phoenix native; Lifelong Suns Fan

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    My best advice would be to do nothing. Definitely don't panic. This too will pass. Of course, this is my opinion from everything I've heard and read. However, what is not opinion and is fact is that the US stock market has always gone up over time.
     
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  8. dscher

    dscher Registered

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  9. dscher

    dscher Registered

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  10. dscher

    dscher Registered

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  11. BigRedRage

    BigRedRage Reckless Contributor

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    100% expect a dip in housing but it may take a few years to materialize. hopefully all my stocks improve beforehand.
     
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