Tick tock... tick tock

[dscher]

So now what?

What are your concerns or questions?

 

[Absolute Zero]

What are your concerns or questions?

Wondering everyday whether I should be moving more into bonds and/or more conservative mutual funds. This is crazy

 

[dscher]

Wondering everyday whether I should be moving more into bonds and/or more conservative mutual funds. This is crazy

Well IMO, Strictly from how I personally view the markets now and in the coming months and years...is that the average investor is going to have to prepare for stable high volatility moving forward. This could be years of alot of fear and emotion along with price swings (in either direction). But, I've been saying this to months to my friends and family.. but I personally feel we are going to be in bizarro world for the average buy and holder. Meaning, everything they once knew is now wrong. I very much see us being in a secular long term bear market in stocks, with some cyclical bulls along the way..so in essence, the corrections will be to the upside followed with more downside to resume the downtrend. Now, this is strictly speaking for mutual funds/ETFs/ index funds. There will be some winners if you find the right individual stocks to be in....but even Buffett would struggle in this coming environment imo. Once again... Not to strike fear, only awareness. Its probably pretty certain the Japanese didn't think their market could drop in 90 as much as it did either. Overall, Its not about picking sides in the markets (bull or bear) just that we as individuals be on the right side of them. Best of luck. If you have any questions.. I always enjoy discussing and paying it forward like the people that have taught me.

PS. After I realized the rambling I forgot to answer. Lol. I believe bonds will be safer if you have to choose between stocks/bonds in a 401k or brokerage/ira. My plan actually took away my money market which I was going to move money into that is the closest to cash you can get. Very convenient timing indeed. . But I do believe the bond market is also a bubble right now..so it's tough for me to say to stick anything in there with conviction at this moment with what my charts are saying. Debt and liquidity is a massive problem right now in the markets and bonds will likely suffer because of it..

 

[Absolute Zero]

Well IMO, Strictly from how I personally view the markets now and in the coming months and years...is that the average investor is going to have to prepare for stable high volatility moving forward. This could be years of alot of fear and emotion along with price swings (in either direction). But, I've been saying this to months to my friends and family.. but I personally feel we are going to be in bizarro world for the average buy and holder. Meaning, everything they once knew is now wrong. I very much see us being in a secular long term bear market in stocks, with some cyclical bulls along the way..so in essence, the corrections will be to the upside followed with more downside to resume the downtrend. Now, this is strictly speaking for mutual funds/ETFs/ index funds. There will be some winners if you find the right individual stocks to be in....but even Buffett would struggle in this coming environment imo. Once again... Not to strike fear, only awareness. Its probably pretty certain the Japanese didn't think their market could drop in 90 as much as it did either. Overall, Its not about picking sides in the markets (bull or bear) just that we as individuals be on the right side of them. Best of luck. If you have any questions.. I always enjoy discussing and paying it forward like the people that have taught me.

PS. After I realized the rambling I forgot to answer. Lol. I believe bonds will be safer if you have to choose between stocks/bonds in a 401k or brokerage/ira. My plan actually took away my money market which I was going to move money into that is the closest to cash you can get. Very convenient timing indeed. . But I do believe the bond market is also a bubble right now..so it's tough for me to say to stick anything in there with conviction at this moment with what my charts are saying. Debt and liquidity is a massive problem right now in the markets and bonds will likely suffer because of it..

So it sounds like a dilemma with no real safe options. I have our mutual funds in "conservative" products right now, but I was looking at them yesterday and they are still about 1/3 stocks. Even if I find something more bond heavy, sounds like that isn't safe either. Oh man!
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/dilemma

 

[dscher]

So it sounds like a dilemma with no real safe options. I have our mutual funds in "conservative" products right now, but I was looking at them yesterday and they are still about 1/3 stocks. Even if I find something more bond heavy, sounds like that isn't safe either. Oh man!

One man's opinion is another man's trash. . I'm sure there are plenty that disagree with me.. so it's all about doing what "you" are comfortable with at the end of the day! I personally feel extremely comfortable with my advice because my money is where my mouth is...but I know it's not for everyone, so I don't try to push anything. Regarding safety, cash would be an option for sure if you have money outside an employer plan. Russ has spoken on it as well...but there are market shorting ETFs that can work for you in bear markets. I am currently in one of these products. Be aware, I am a long term investor/trader that market times as a tech analyst. So I am able to be nimble in the markets. Just throwing out some ideas for ya outside of physical gold. Which is probably my second favorite option currently...at least a smaller portion of my portfolio.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Absolute, understand that what dscher just put forth is pretty much a contrarian position to what the majority of economists believe. That’s not to say he’s wrong, but I think it’s important that you view whatever anyone posts on a sports message board with a high level of skepticism. If you’re really concerned, hire someone. They’ll dive into your particular fact sets rather than give you sweeping commentary that may or may not be applicable to you. And about whom you know little. We have no idea what dscher’s background is, if he’s good at what he does, etc. similar for all of you who don’t know me. So please don’t give anything said in here too much credibility.

the danger with trying to figure out when to move to more conservative investments based on timing is that you probably don’t know when to do it - particularly in markets this volatile. With 500-2000 point swings potentially on a daily basis at present you can really damage your allocation.

 

[dscher]

Agree with ouchie. I believe I made it extremely clear across many comments so far that this isn't meant to be financial advice, only one man's opinion and that we all have to do what makes each of us comfortable at the end of the day. No hand holding needed I'm sure ....as we are all adults.

Am I a contrarian though? Yes, I am. Most mainstream economists also had no idea we were on the cusp of the financial crisis either.. so obviously, everything should be taken with a grain of salt.. Even the mainstream pros get it wrong quite frequently. But I digress. This isnt a competition of right vs wrong...but rather, as I've said, an awareness. We need to be aware of both sides of the market in all environments imo. I'm only sharing my views so we don't get too fixated on one side of it. But in the end, comfort level takes priority as always in any decision. Best of luck.

 

[dscher]

Great resource for anyone who wants technicals part of their tool bag.. Northman Trader on YouTube is a fantastic weekly recap on all things technical in the marketplace. Highly recommend. Not receiving any sales commission on this pitch either. Lol

 

[Folster]

Here's the case for long term investing.

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It's interesting that both of the worst 10 and 15 year periods were basically for those who invested right before the dot com bubble burst. It's extremely rare for the S&P 500 to have a negative return in a 10 year period. I'm not sure it's happened more than once.

Even if you timed it horribly for the worst 20 year period you still averaged a modest 6.4% a year.

Obligatory Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.

 

[elindholm]

Here's the case for long term investing.

It's really pretty simple. There will always be those who believe that they can time the markets. Of those, some will, by chance, enjoy a run of successes that reinforces their belief. Others will get it wrong and say that they learned something -- but what they learned won't be that they can't time the markets.

Then there are those who believe that trying to time the markets is pretty much hopeless, and you need to play the long-term percentages according to your own personal circumstances. Those people won't have the huge successes or failures in either direction, so they don't attract much attention.

 

[dscher]

Here's the case for long term investing.

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It's interesting that both of the worst 10 and 15 year periods were basically for those who invested right before the dot com bubble burst. It's extremely rare for the S&P 500 to have a negative return in a 10 year period. I'm not sure it's happened more than once.

Even if you timed it horribly for the worst 20 year period you still averaged a modest 6.4% a year.

Obligatory Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.

Can't argue with that when you could have averaged a little less with a bond portfolio for much better sleep at night.. .

All kidding aside..I'm only on here venting about it so much because I think we are entering something much bigger at play moving forwards. Negative rates usually don't end well for economies and markets. Time will tell.

 

[Superbone]

So it sounds like a dilemma with no real safe options. I have our mutual funds in "conservative" products right now, but I was looking at them yesterday and they are still about 1/3 stocks. Even if I find something more bond heavy, sounds like that isn't safe either. Oh man!

My best advice would be to do nothing. Definitely don't panic. This too will pass. Of course, this is my opinion from everything I've heard and read. However, what is not opinion and is fact is that the US stock market has always gone up over time.

 

[dscher]

https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/5CFC0A70-8CB8-11EA-B500-29C0C34A0E28

His words are not not matching up with cash allocations though.. Berkshire is building cash positions ATM.

 

[dscher]

This is my platform. Just thought I'd share. They have great free TA resources imo..

https://stockcharts.com/articles/tac/2020/05/at-the-edge-of-chaos-something-142.html

 

[dscher]

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[BigRedRage]

100% expect a dip in housing but it may take a few years to materialize. hopefully all my stocks improve beforehand.

 

[dscher]

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