Tick tock... tick tock

YTD, have you outperformed the US market?

 

Not for this year. But being out of the December decline along with being in t bonds allowed me to sleep well at night , personally. But I'm positioning for the future and don't care about small drawdowns at the moment for any continued upside we might have.

 

Best of luck to you.

 

Thanks. Likewise.

 

Sorry to bump a thread here.. but just felt I had to come back with a final warning. I'm not trying to sound dire or strike fear, but more of an awareness to all my fellow ASFNers...

I have leading sentiment indicators that have diverged strongly from the stock market to the likes I have never seen..in charts dating back to the great depression! Charting and ta are fractal by nature, so these long term conditions can't be discounted imo. Of course this MAY not play out how I think...but as I said, just having awareness of both scenarios is of utmost importance, especially in the new set of economic conditions we are in with a global pandemic. Take care everyone and good luck.

 

Way to feed the panic. I'm not doing a thing. This will just be a blip on the radar in a few years.

 

Awareness is not panic in my book. I'm just sharing my own personal insights and opinions because I like trying to help people with some of the things I have learned over the years. But to each their own. We all obviously need to do what's best for our own personal situations. Take care.

 

things are already tipping upward and during an emotional sell off you should never sell off with everyone. In fact, I started buying and its already paying off. Maybe if the market had turned for a real reason. This market turn was pure emotion.

 

And this is why trying to time the market is so stupid. Know how many people likely were still selling early today? Missed run up of close to 1300 points. If you’ve got time horizon, do not panic.

 

So now what?

 

What are your concerns or questions?

 

Wondering everyday whether I should be moving more into bonds and/or more conservative mutual funds. This is crazy

 

Well IMO, Strictly from how I personally view the markets now and in the coming months and years...is that the average investor is going to have to prepare for stable high volatility moving forward. This could be years of alot of fear and emotion along with price swings (in either direction). But, I've been saying this to months to my friends and family.. but I personally feel we are going to be in bizarro world for the average buy and holder. Meaning, everything they once knew is now wrong. I very much see us being in a secular long term bear market in stocks, with some cyclical bulls along the way..so in essence, the corrections will be to the upside followed with more downside to resume the downtrend. Now, this is strictly speaking for mutual funds/ETFs/ index funds. There will be some winners if you find the right individual stocks to be in....but even Buffett would struggle in this coming environment imo. Once again... Not to strike fear, only awareness. Its probably pretty certain the Japanese didn't think their market could drop in 90 as much as it did either. Overall, Its not about picking sides in the markets (bull or bear) just that we as individuals be on the right side of them. Best of luck. If you have any questions.. I always enjoy discussing and paying it forward like the people that have taught me.

PS. After I realized the rambling I forgot to answer. Lol. I believe bonds will be safer if you have to choose between stocks/bonds in a 401k or brokerage/ira. My plan actually took away my money market which I was going to move money into that is the closest to cash you can get. Very convenient timing indeed. . But I do believe the bond market is also a bubble right now..so it's tough for me to say to stick anything in there with conviction at this moment with what my charts are saying. Debt and liquidity is a massive problem right now in the markets and bonds will likely suffer because of it..

 

So it sounds like a dilemma with no real safe options. I have our mutual funds in "conservative" products right now, but I was looking at them yesterday and they are still about 1/3 stocks. Even if I find something more bond heavy, sounds like that isn't safe either. Oh man!

 

One man's opinion is another man's trash. . I'm sure there are plenty that disagree with me.. so it's all about doing what "you" are comfortable with at the end of the day! I personally feel extremely comfortable with my advice because my money is where my mouth is...but I know it's not for everyone, so I don't try to push anything. Regarding safety, cash would be an option for sure if you have money outside an employer plan. Russ has spoken on it as well...but there are market shorting ETFs that can work for you in bear markets. I am currently in one of these products. Be aware, I am a long term investor/trader that market times as a tech analyst. So I am able to be nimble in the markets. Just throwing out some ideas for ya outside of physical gold. Which is probably my second favorite option currently...at least a smaller portion of my portfolio.